1. FY27 revenue - broadly flat, revised to single-digit decline On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided broadly flat FY27 revenue, revising it at the Q1 FY27 call to a single-digit revenue decline in rupee terms. Q1 FY27 revenue declined 16% YoY to Rs 736 Cr; the full year is not yet complete.
2. FY27 EBITDA margin - mid-20s On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27 EBITDA margins in the mid-20s, reiterated at the Q1 FY27 call. Q1 FY27 operating EBITDA margin was 12%; management held the guidance citing H2 uplift and cost savings.
3. Discovery business turnaround - by end of FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided a Discovery business turnaround by end of FY27, driven by AI-led differentiation. In Q1 FY27, Research Services was 78% of sales with gigascale virtual screening and AI-driven de novo design capabilities developed; FY27 is not complete.
4. Mangalore utilization ramp-up - significant increase in FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided a significant ramp-up in Mangalore utilization in FY27, continuing into FY28. Utilization had been very low in past years, and a few lock-ins were secured for commercial and clinical molecules in Q1 FY27; FY27 is not complete.
5. Bayview facility operationalization - H2 FY26 Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management stated the Bayview Biologics facility was expected to be operationalized in H2 FY26, later pushed to end of calendar 2026. In Q1 FY27, one or two expressions of interest converted into project-based CMO requirements, with actual revenues expected significantly from next year; it was not yet operational.
6. Unit 3 and Bayview ramp-up - 1x asset turnover in 3-5 years On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management reiterated guidance of 1x asset turnover in 3 to 5 years for Unit 3 and Bayview. Unit 3 was operational in Q1 FY26; Bayview was not yet operational as of Q1 FY27, and the ramp-up window remains open.
7. FY26 PAT - year-on-year decline Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided a "year-on-year decline in profit after tax" for FY26, maintaining PAT margin guidance at Q2 FY26. FY26 PAT before exceptional items declined 20% to Rs 380 Cr; after exceptional items it declined 36%.
8. FY26 EBITDA margin - mid-twenties Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 EBITDA margin to "moderate from current levels to the mid-twenties", later cut to 22-23% between January and April. FY26 operating EBITDA margin was 25%, with reported EBITDA margin at 26.0%.
9. FY26 underlying revenue growth - early teens Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 underlying revenue growth "in the early teens", reiterated through Q2 FY26. FY26 underlying growth excluding Librela was high-single digits, with reported revenue up 3%.
10. FY26 reported revenue growth - mid-single digit Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 reported revenue growth "at mid-single digit", reiterated through Q2 FY26. FY26 revenue grew 3%, which management called "in line with our revised guidance".
11. FY25 revenue growth - high single digits to low double digits Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 revenue growth "in the range of high single digits to low double digits", revised at Q3 FY25 to single-digit growth. FY25 revenue grew 4% to Rs 3,642 Cr, in line with the January guidance but below the original range.
12. FY25 PAT growth - single digits Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 PAT growth "in single digits", revised at Q3 FY25 to flat PAT. FY25 PAT before exceptional items declined 8% to Rs 475 Cr; after exceptional items it declined 3% to Rs 496 Cr, with adjusted PAT broadly flat at 1% growth.
13. FY25 EBITDA margin - similar to FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 EBITDA margin "to be similar to the level delivered in fiscal year 2024" (FY24: 31%), unchanged at Q3 FY25. FY25 reported EBITDA margin was 30.0%, with operating EBITDA margin at 29%.
14. Stelis facility operational - 2024, then H2 FY25 Partial - At the Q1 FY24 call, management stated the Stelis facility was expected to be operational in 2024, later pushed to H2 FY25 subject to regulatory approvals. Unit 3 became operational and delivered a GMP clinical batch in Q1 FY26, with the license granted that quarter.
15. Stelis biologics facility acquisition - complete by end of Q3 FY24 Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management stated the acquisition of the biologics manufacturing facility from Stelis Biopharma would complete by the end of Q3 FY24. The acquisition concluded in Q3 FY24 at a revised gross value of Rs 617 Cr.
16. Zoetis agreement value - up to US$500 Mn over 10 years Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management stated the Zoetis agreement was expected to be worth up to US$500 Mn over 10 years, subject to regulatory approvals and market demand. FY24 achieved a run rate of USD 50 Mn per annum; by Q1 FY27 the lost Zoetis client impact was nearly $50 million, with revenues very small.
17. Zoetis Librela commercial manufacturing - start Q4 FY23 Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management stated commercial manufacturing of drug substance for Librela was likely to begin in Q4 FY23, subject to regulatory audits. US FDA, EMA and MHRA audits completed in Q3 FY23; Librela was approved by US FDA on May 5, 2023 and commercial manufacturing began subsequently.
18. FY23 revenue growth - mid-teens, raised to high teens Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided FY23 revenue growth in the mid-teens, raised to high teens at Q1 FY23. FY23 revenue grew 23% to Rs 3,193 Cr, ahead of the upgraded guidance.
19. FY23 EBITDA margin - around 30% Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management expected EBITDA margin around 30% for FY23, reiterated in quarterly PPTs through Q3 FY23. FY23 reported EBITDA margin was 30.8%.
20. FY23 PAT growth - single digit Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided single digit PAT growth for FY23, reiterated in quarterly PPTs through Q3 FY23. FY23 PAT before exceptional items grew 10% to Rs 464 Cr, at the top of the single-digit range.
21. FY23 Hyderabad expansion - Discovery Chemistry and Biology Delivered - The FY22 annual report stated continued expansion in Hyderabad planned during FY23 for Discovery Chemistry and Discovery Biology. In FY23, the Hyderabad research facility was expanded to accommodate around 900 scientists and a dedicated PROTACs facility was opened.
22. Hyderabad phase three expansion - completed in FY22 Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management stated phase three of the Hyderabad R&D facility expansion was expected to be completed in FY22, accommodating \~250 scientists. Phase three was completed during Q4 FY22, with the facility now accommodating approximately 600 scientists.
23. Mangalore USFDA approval - within two years Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management stated small molecules manufacturing at Mangalore "remains on track to achieve USFDA approval within two years". US FDA regulatory approval for the commercial API manufacturing facility was received in Q1 FY24, within the window, following a successful inspection in FY24.
24. BMS dedicated centre expansion - 40% more scientists, 50,000 sq ft, within 18 months Partial - At the Q4 FY21 call, management stated the extended BMS agreement required a 40% increase in scientists and an additional 50,000 sq. ft. of dedicated laboratory space, with the remainder of the scientists to join in the next 18 months. The FY21 annual report noted part of the increase was executed during the year with the remainder expected over the next two years; no source confirms completion, and the expansion horizon has since lapsed.
25. FY22 revenue growth - mid-teens Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided FY22 revenue growth in the mid-teens range, raised to "high teens" at Q3 FY22. FY22 revenue grew 19% to Rs 2,604 Cr, at the high end of the upgraded guidance range.
26. FY22 EBITDA margin - around 30% Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management expected reported EBITDA margins to stay at, or around, 30% for FY22. FY22 EBITDA margin was 32%, exceeding the \~30% target.
27. FY22 PAT growth - single digit Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided that additional capex investments were likely to lead to single digit profit growth in FY22. FY22 PAT before exceptional items grew 10% to Rs 421 Cr, at the top of the single-digit range; PAT after exceptional item declined 2%.
28. BMS collaboration extension - through 2035 Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management announced BMS extended the partnership through 2035. The extension was confirmed in Q4 FY26 and in the announcement filing.
29. ADC platform - end-to-end capability Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management stated Syngene was building a new GMP bioconjugation suite for end-to-end ADC manufacturing. In Q4 FY26, operations commenced at the ADC discovery laboratory and the GMP bioconjugation suite was expanded, establishing end-to-end ADC capabilities.
30. FY24 revenue growth - high teens constant currency, lowered to mid-teens, then double digits Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, the CFO referenced full-year revenue growth guidance on a constant currency basis, lowered to mid-teens at Q2 FY24 and to "around double digits" at Q3 FY24. FY24 revenue grew 9% to Rs 3,489 Cr, consistent with the final guidance.