1. Capex - ₹900-1,000 cr over next 15 months Pending - In the FY26 annual report, management committed ₹900-1,000 crore of capital expenditure over the next 15 months across capacity expansion, backward integration, and testing & infrastructure. FY26 capital work-in-progress stood at ₹138 crore, and Q1 FY27 had \~₹145 crore of unutilized QIP proceeds earmarked for backward integration.
2. 220 MVA EAF transformer export - Q1 FY25 Delivered - In the Q4 FY24 PPT, the company flagged a 220 MVA EAF transformer for export (steel melting application, second biggest rating in the world) to be exported in Q1 FY25. The 220 MVA Electric Arc Furnace transformer was successfully exported, one of the largest ratings ever manufactured globally.
3. FY21-22 revenue growth - 8-10% increase Delivered - In the FY21 annual report, with opening order book above ₹1,000 crore, the company expected an 8 to 10 percent increase in revenue, with concomitant increase in EBITDA and PAT. FY22 revenue was ₹1,123 crore against FY21's ₹727 crore, growth of 54.5%.
4. HVDC segment entry - FY26 (later post-27) Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management targeted entering the HVDC segment in FY26, "pretty soon we will be into that line"; the timeline later moved to post-'27 and then 15-16 months from Q1 FY27. TARIL received an exceptional HVDC repair order from PowerGrid, the first Indian origin company to receive one, but no HVDC manufacturing orders yet, with repair work ongoing.
5. FY26 gross margin - 30-35% as "new norm" (later 35% by FY28) On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management said the \~30-35% gross margin could be considered a "new norm"; the 35% target was later pushed to FY28, with 40% at full backward integration. FY26 gross margin was 30-32% and Q4 FY26 was 30-31%, below target but moving in the right direction.
6. 10% PAT level - sustainable Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, the CFO said the aim was to reach 10% PAT on a sustainable mode, sustained for continuous two years, reiterated at Q3 FY25 and Q4 FY25. FY25 consolidated PAT margin was 10.56% and FY26 \~10.8%, but standalone stayed below 10% at 9.45% and 9.4%; two continuous years not yet demonstrated.
7. Working capital days - 120 days (later 120-130 days) Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, the CFO committed to bringing working capital days down to 120 days, reiterated at Q4 FY24 and Q4 FY25, later widened to 120-130 days at Q1 FY27. FY25 debtor days fell to 114 and Q3 FY26 neared \~120-122 days, but FY26 net working capital was \~170 days and the consolidated cash conversion cycle doubled to 199 days.
8. FY27 PAT margin - 9-10% On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management targeted FY27 PAT margin of 9-10%, reiterated in the Q1 FY27 PPT. Q1 FY27 standalone PAT margin was 8.9%, just below target, while consolidated was 11.2%, above it.
9. FY27 EBITDA margin - 16% standalone, 20-21% consolidated On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management targeted FY27 EBITDA margin of 16% standalone, with consolidated guided at "20%, 21% or beyond"; the Q1 FY27 PPT reiterated 16%. Q1 FY27 standalone EBITDA margin was 15.6% and consolidated 19.2%.
10. Total manufacturing capacity - 75,000 MVA Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said expansions would take total manufacturing capacity to 75,000 MVA, from \~40,000 MVA per the Q3 FY26 call. Installed capacity reached 75,000 MVA across 3 plants - Moraiya 40,000, Changodar 35,000, Odhav 2,000 MVA p.a..
11. Moraiya 22,000 MVA expansion - completed by Q4 FY26 (later Q3 FY27) Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, the 22,000 MVA EHV transformer capacity expansion at Moraiya was expected to be completed by February 2026; the timeline later moved to Q2 FY27 and then Q3 FY27. The expansion was not yet operational as of Q1 FY27, with Moraiya at \~60-65% utilization and installed capacity of 40,000 MVA p.a..
12. FY26 order book - ₹8,000 cr by end FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management targeted an unexecuted order book of around ₹8,000 crores by end of FY26, reiterated at Q2 and Q3 FY26; at Q4 FY26 management acknowledged "we have miscalculated the orders that were supposed to be coming to us". The unexecuted order book was ₹5,005 crore as of March 31, 2026, with FY26 inflow of ₹2,374 crore.
13. FY26 EBITDA margin - approximately 16% (later 16-17%) Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided FY26 EBITDA margin of "approximately 16%", later reiterated at around 16% to 17% and 16.5% to 17%. FY26 standalone EBITDA margin was 15.4% while consolidated was 17.7%.
14. FY26 revenue - ₹3,500 cr (later ₹2,600 cr, then \~₹2,500-2,600 cr) Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, the CFO targeted almost ₹3,500 crores revenue for FY26, reiterated at Q3 FY25 and Q1 FY26; the target was cut to approximately ₹2,600 crores at Q2 FY26 and confirmed at Q4 FY26. FY26 standalone revenue was ₹2,395 crore and consolidated ₹2,509 crore, below the revised ₹2,600 crore target.
15. US$1 billion revenue - next 3 financial years (later FY28-29) On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, the CFO said the journey towards US$1 billion revenue in the next three financial years had started; the timeline later firmed to FY28-29 with a rupee target of \~₹8,000 crore. FY26 consolidated revenue was ₹2,509 crore and FY27 guidance is \~₹3,200 crore, with management stating FY29 "looks very achievable".
16. FY25 order book - significantly higher than FY24 Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management expected a significantly higher order book in FY25 than FY24, with a ₹4,000 crores plus target by end of FY25 set at Q3 FY25. FY25 order inflow was ₹4,504 crore, highest in history, with unexecuted order book of ₹5,132 crore as of March 31, 2025, against FY24 inflow of ₹2,050 crore.
17. Debt-free company - near future (later 18-24 months) On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, the CFO aimed to transform the company into a debt-free company "in the near future"; the target was refined to 1-2 years at Q4 FY25 and then net debt-free over 18 to 24 months from Q1 FY26, reaffirmed at Q3 FY26. Standalone debt was \~₹424 crore with cash of \~₹139 crore at end FY26, debt/equity \~0.3x, reduced substantially but net-debt-free not yet achieved.
18. Backward integration margin benefit - at least 100 bps (later 200-300 bps) On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, the CFO said backward integration would add "at least 100 bps" to standalone EBITDA margin; the target was raised to 200-250 bps at Q2 FY26 and 200-300 bps by Q1 FY27, with gradual increase starting FY28. FY26 standalone EBITDA margin was 15.4%, down \~80 bps from 16.12% in FY25, with facilities not yet fully operational.
19. FY27 revenue - ₹4,500-5,000 cr standalone with 16-17% EBITDA Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, the CFO guided that by FY27 the company was "well posed to reach ₹4,500 crores to ₹5,000 crores numbers on a standalone basis" with EBITDA at 16% to 17% levels. At Q4 FY26 the FY27 target was reset to "around ₹3,250 crores", and at Q1 FY27 to 25% growth (\~₹3,000 crore standalone) with 16% EBITDA margin, against FY26 standalone revenue of ₹2,395 crore.
20. Full backward integration - by December 2025 (later Q1 FY26, then Q1 FY28) Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, Satyen Mamtora said the company would be fully backward integrated by December 2025, later moved to Q1 FY26 and then Q1 FY28 for all five facilities. The CRGO processing unit is operational and radiator Phase 1 has PGCIL approval, but CTC, pressboard, RIP bushings and fabrication facilities were still under construction with commissioning targeted Q2 FY27-Q1 FY28.
21. QIP fundraise - ₹500 cr board-approved, complete by end Q1 FY25 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, the CFO said the QIP (\~₹500 crore board-approved) would be completed "by end of first quarter", with proceeds for inorganic growth, capacity increase, backward integration and working capital. The company raised ₹500 crores through QIP in just 3 weeks' time, with \~₹145 crore unutilized and earmarked for backward integration as of Q1 FY27.
22. New plant expansion (12,000-15,000 MVA) - operational by December 2024 Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, the CFO said the new plant expansion focused on green hydrogen and solar park transformers would be ready by December 2024; the deadline was pushed repeatedly - January 2025, May 2025, Q2 FY26, Q1 FY27, Q2 FY27 - to August 2026. Q1 FY27 revenue growth was impacted by lower Changodar utilization due to ongoing expansion, with completion expected by August 2026 and stabilization from Q3.
23. FY25 EBITDA margin - 12.5%-13% (later \~14%) Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, the CFO guided FY25 EBITDA margin at 12.5%-13% levels; at Q1 FY25 the CFO confirmed margins would be on analyst expectations of \~14%. FY25 standalone EBITDA margin was 16.12% and consolidated 17.51%.
24. FY25 revenue - ₹2,000 cr target Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, the CFO confirmed "₹2,000 crores is quite achievable and we are working on that", reiterated at Q2 and Q3 FY25. FY25 standalone revenue was ₹1,950 crore and consolidated ₹2,051 crore - management's own scorekeeping: "guided ₹2,000 crores, delivered ₹2,051 crores".
25. FY24 order book target - ₹2,500 cr by end FY24 Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management targeted around ₹2,500 crores order book by end of FY24. The unexecuted order book as on 31 March 2024 was ₹2,582 crore.
26. Export share of order book - 15-20% going forward Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected export share of order book to move to 15-20% from \~5%; the target rose to 25% by FY26-27 before being progressively reduced to a 10-15% revenue ceiling, "will not go beyond 15%". FY26 exports were \~4% of revenue and \~9% of order book, within the revised ceiling, with the company deliberately capping exports below the original 25% ambition.
27. Bridge financing - ₹100-150 cr before QIP Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management said bridge financing of around ₹100-150 crores was in "very, very advanced stages", mostly for working capital enhancement, with effect to be seen in Q2 and Q3 results. In October 2023 the company raised ₹120 crore via preferential issue on private placement basis, followed by the ₹500 crore QIP in Q1 FY25.
28. Peak revenue from existing facility - ₹2,300-2,600 cr On track - At the Q1 FY24 call, management estimated peak revenue from the existing facility at ₹2,300-2,600 crores at then-current raw material prices and material-to-sales ratio; at Q2 FY24 it said ₹2,500 crores top line was reachable without any CAPEX. FY25 standalone revenue was ₹1,950 crore and FY26 ₹2,395 crore, within the band and demonstrating the ceiling is achievable.
29. FY24 EBITDA margin - double figure plus (above 10%) Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected FY24 EBITDA margins to be "double figure plus" (above 10%); at Q3 FY24 the CFO guided margins would improve to industry levels of 10%-12%. FY24 standalone EBITDA margin was 10.03% and consolidated OPM 10.36%.
30. FY24 revenue - "definite growth" over FY23 Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected "definite growth" in Q2 FY24 versus Q2 FY23 and over FY23 full year, with the Q4 FY23 PPT optimistic on double digit growth in revenue and PAT; at Q2 FY24 management was "hoping" to touch ₹1,400 crores. FY24 standalone revenue was ₹1,273 crore, a 7% decline vs ₹1,375 crore in FY23, with consolidated revenue ₹1,295 crore vs ₹1,396 crore, though PAT increased 12% standalone.
31. GETCO stop deal revocation - expected in near future Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management was hopeful the GETCO stop deal order would be revoked in the near future; at Q2 FY24 it expected a revocation circular "within a month and a half". GETCO withdrew its stop deal with immediate effect via letter dated 15th April 2024, and in March 2025 the company secured a landmark ₹740 crore GETCO order, the largest single order in company history.
32. GETCO payment process - start by end Aug/early Sep 2023 Partial - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected the GETCO payment process to start by end of August 2023 or early September 2023. GETCO began releasing stalled payments from the 3rd week of October 2023, with around ₹33 crores released by the Q2 FY24 call, ₹90 crore received by Q3 FY24, and the majority of dues received by Q4 FY24.