1. Sodium-ion battery - piloting to finish in 6-9 months, initial customer offers by year-end On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said the sodium-ion battery product proving and piloting phase would take the better part of this year, with piloting expected to finish in about 6 to 9 months, some initial customer offers or units by end of year, and a full-scale plant two years after that. Q1 FY27: the first sodium-ion battery pack was made and is undergoing testing, with a full unit including BMS being tested by power companies and data centers; the technology is patented and uses soda ash as cathode active material.
2. Sustainable India EBITDA margin - around 18%, 32-33% GC margin Delivered - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said the sustainable India EBITDA margin would be around 18%, with a GC margin of about 32% to 33%. Q1 FY27: standalone EBITDA margin was 28%, and India EBITDA margins were 28%, more than 10 percentage points higher QoQ - above the guided sustainable level.
3. Net debt - remain at similar levels next year (\~₹6,000 cr ex-leases) Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, the CFO said net debt was expected to remain at similar levels next year, more or less similar to the March 2026 level of about ₹6,000 cr ex-leases, because business pressure persists. Q1 FY27: net debt was ₹5,692 cr as of Jun 26 vs ₹5,961 cr in Mar 26, lower on asset monetization - slightly below the March level.
4. Immediate ₹100 cr debottlenecking capacity expansion - on stream in 12-14 months On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said the immediate ₹100 crores debottlenecking capacity expansion would come on stream in about 12-14 months' time, with returns expected upwards of 20%. Q1 FY27: the 82.5 KTPA salt plant in India should be operational by this year-end (FY27), with supply to market starting Q1 FY28; no clean disclosure of the ₹100 cr debottlenecking completion in our record.
5. Novabay Singapore acquisition - double capacity to 120,000 tonne Pending - At the Q3 FY26 call, management stated the Novabay Singapore acquisition gives flexibility at very low cost to double capacity to 120,000 tonne from the current 60,000 tonne, with unit numbers and EBITDA to be highlighted once the acquisition is consummated. Q4 FY26: the acquisition of Novabay Pte Limited, Singapore, was completed on 19th March 2026 and included w.e.f. 1 January 2026; Q1 FY27 PPT shows Singapore bicarb at 60,000 MTPA, with no doubling disclosure yet.
6. 350 KTPA dense ash plant - Mithapur, ₹135 cr On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management announced Board approval for a 350-kilo tonne dense ash plant at Mithapur with an investment of ₹135 crores; the Q4 FY26 PPT set the commissioning timeline at Q3 FY2028. Q4 FY26: management expects at least 50% utilization of the dense ash plant as it comes on stream; no commissioning yet and no specific update in Q1 FY27.
7. Greenfield iodized salt facility - Valinokkam, 210 KTPA, ₹515 cr, 36 months On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management announced a Board-approved greenfield iodized salt facility at Valinokkam, Tamil Nadu, of 210 kilo tonne per annum with an investment of ₹515 crore, to be commissioned over the next 36 months; the Q4 FY26 PPT set commissioning at Q2 FY2029 with IRR in the 20% range. Q4 FY26: the foundation stone was laid at Ramanathapuram on 12th Feb 2026; Q1 FY27: the 210 KTPA plant has a 24-month execution time, operational sometime during 2028 - no commissioning yet.
8. 500,000 tonnes soda ash capacity in India - 150,000 quickly, 350,000 in two steps Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management planned to add 500,000 tonnes of soda ash capacity in India - at least another half a million tonne, of which 150,000 tonnes "should come very quickly" and 350,000 tonnes in two steps, with a comprehensive plan promised with Q3 results. Q3 FY26: the Board approved the 350 KTPA dense ash plant at Mithapur for ₹135 cr; Q4 FY26: the ₹100 cr debottlenecking expansion was announced; Q1 FY27: the 82.5 KTPA salt plant is due by FY27 year-end - no clean disclosure of the full 500,000-ton addition.
9. UK business - breakeven at PAT level by FY26 Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided that the UK business should end FY26 at breakeven at PAT level - "that's what we are working towards"; the UK reconfiguration savings target was later revised to about 75% of ₹600 cr by end FY26, and Q3 FY26 saw break-even "pushed" by a snowstorm-driven unplanned stoppage. Q4 FY26: UK EBITDA was ₹88 cr in FY26 with PAT of ₹(202) cr, and Q1 FY27 showed EBITDA of ₹(5) cr - the UK did not reach PAT breakeven.
10. FY26 structural EBITDA improvement - ₹600 cr, split 200/200/200 Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management reiterated the FY26 structural EBITDA improvement target of ₹600 cr, split equally between \~₹200 cr from UK cessation, \~₹200 cr from new projects and \~₹200 cr from cost improvement - "still holds fine for the full year"; the UK component was later revised to about 75% of ₹600 cr by end FY26. FY25 consolidated EBITDA was ₹1,953 cr and FY26 came in at ₹1,805 cr - a decline of ₹148 cr rather than the guided improvement.
11. UK exceptional charge - ₹70 cr likely to remain in range, no major incremental Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management's best estimate was that the ₹70 crore exceptional charge - employee termination benefits plus decommissioning of Lostock - was likely to remain in this range, with no major incremental expense post this. Q4 FY25: an exceptional charge of ₹55 crore was taken for UK regulatory and contractual obligations; Q2 FY26 and Q4 FY26 saw further ₹65 cr UK provisioning and closure costs - total UK exceptional charges exceeded ₹70 cr.
12. UK to be out of negative spark spreads by end of Q3 FY25 Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management expected the UK to be "out of this problem" - negative spark spreads - "by the time we finish the third quarter". Q3 FY25: Lostock soda ash production ceased; UK EBITDA moved from ₹25 cr in FY25 to ₹88 cr in FY26 before ₹(5) cr in Q1 FY27 - the UK exited negative spark spreads via the Lostock closure.
13. Volumes - better or at least same as last year in all geographies except UK Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided volumes to be better or at least at the same level as last year in all geographies except UK, with India and US able to show higher volumes. FY25 consolidated sales volumes were 5,404 Kts vs 5,196 Kts in the prior year, and FY26 volumes were 5,358 Kts vs 5,218 Kts; Q1 FY27 saw sales volumes increase across products and geographies.
14. Commissioned capacities - at least ₹400 cr EBITDA bump-up next year Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided that commissioned capacities - salt, bicarb, soda ash and UK pharmaceutical salt - should give at least ₹400 crore of EBITDA bump-up next year on a full-year impact basis, keeping the margin profile constant; this was later folded into the ₹600 cr FY26 structural improvement target. FY25 consolidated EBITDA was ₹1,953 cr and FY26 ₹1,805 cr - a decline of ₹148 cr rather than the ₹400-600 cr increase.
15. No other major asset impairment - India, Kenya, US, rest of UK fine Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said it did not anticipate any other major asset impairment or anything under pressure in India, Kenya, US, or the rest of UK. Q4 FY26: an exceptional charge of ₹1,837 cr was taken for impairment of goodwill in the US, plus a ₹159 cr deferred tax write-off, with the PPT showing a ₹1,837 cr US goodwill impairment and ₹182 cr deferred tax assets write-off.
16. Free cash flow - slightly better than past due to lower capex Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, the CFO said free cash flow would be "slightly better than past" because of lower capex, with the major bulk of India capex done. Q3 FY26: 9M FY26 operating cash flow was about ₹700 cr negative, of which ₹350 cr was forex movement on existing debt and ₹350 cr from sharp capex reduction; Q4 FY26 saw net debt increase due to lower cash generation.
17. European demand loss - \~1 million ton lost in medium term Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management said the European demand loss of about 1 million ton was "in the medium term" lost if the current European energy environment continued, and that European supply had to rationalize. Q4 FY24: the European oversupply and demand-supply mismatch was about 0.1 crore to 1.2 million tons; Q3 FY25: Western Europe lost about 1 million ton of soda ash demand; Q4 FY26: Solvay reduced \~180,000 tons from its Spanish plant.
18. US business EBITDA - about $100 million with current capacity Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management reiterated that the US business should deliver EBITDA of about $100 million with current capacity. FY24 US EBITDA was ₹1,087 cr - approximately $130 million - then fell to ₹648 cr (about $78 million) in FY25 and ₹294 cr (about $35 million) in FY26, with Q1 FY27 at ₹3 cr.
19. US domestic business - contractually stable in volume and pricing for full CY2024 Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management said the US domestic business is contractually stable in volume and pricing for the full calendar year 2024, with stable margins after adjusting for energy and other changes; domestic prices were later confirmed to hold up to December. Q4 FY24: US domestic realization moved hardly $2 from last year and hardly $8 from the previous quarter, and prices stayed in a narrow band through Q1 FY27.
20. Sodium bicarbonate demand in flue gas treatment - 10-12% per annum growth Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management estimated demand for sodium bicarbonate in flue gas treatment would continue to grow at about 10%-12% per annum, in a phased manner. FY25: sodium bicarbonate sales stood at 1.47 lakh MT, up 17.6% over the previous year and ahead of market growth; FY26: sales reached 1.96 lakh MT, up approximately 33%, significantly ahead of overall market growth.
21. Capex for expansion beyond current cycle - \~₹3,000 cr over next 3 years Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided capex for expansion beyond the current cycle - salt 1.5 to 1.8 lakh tons at \~₹400 cr, soda ash India 1 to 1.3 lakh tons at \~₹1,000 cr, Kenya and US together (\~0.6 million tons) at \~$200 million - about ₹3,000 odd crore spread over the next 3 years; this was later restated as ₹2,000 crore over FY25-FY28. FY25 capex was roughly ₹2,000-odd crores and FY26 spend ₹1,205 cr, lower by ₹801 cr - no clean disclosure of the full ₹3,000 cr program.
22. Return ratios - premium to WACC, ideally 15% to 20% Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management targeted return ratios at a premium to the weighted average cost of capital, "ideally getting close to, anywhere between 15% to 20%"; the 20% IRR commitment for capex was reiterated at Q3 FY25. ROCE fell from 12.09% in FY23 to 4.89% in FY24, 3.82% in FY25 and -2.98% in FY26, with ROE at 12.43%, 2.02%, 1.66% and -8.09% respectively - never approaching the 15-20% target.
23. Global soda ash consumption growth - 2% to 3% Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management expected global soda ash consumption growth of anywhere between 2% to 3%; historic growth rates of 2.5%-3% were cited at Q2 FY24 with recovery expected if traditional sectors recovered. FY24 global soda ash demand increased by 2.7%, within the guided range, and FY25 demand grew 8.3% - above it.
24. India soda ash demand growth - 5.5% to 6.5% Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management expected India soda ash demand growth in the range of 5.5% to 6.5%, on the back of new glass lines coming on-stream; 5% to 6% growth was factored for the coming year at Q4 FY25, with FY26 forecast at 5.8%. Q3 FY24: India demand grew marginally by 1%; FY25: India demand grew 4.5% - below the guided range, with no clean FY23 confirmation in our record.
25. Mithapur turbine - commissioned by mid-January 2023 Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided that the Mithapur turbine should get commissioned by somewhere in the month of January, with commissioning towards the middle of January. Q3 FY24: the India captive power plant was already commissioned and delivering steam and power to the system; no specific disclosure of the exact turbine commissioning date in our record.
26. Silica expansion - 50,000 tons in two streams, ₹400 cr capex, 30 months Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided silica capacity would be expanded by 50,000 tons in two streams of 25,000 tons each, with estimated capex of ₹400 crore and about 30 months to execute; this was later re-scoped to 60,000 tons in three 20,000-ton modules with the first stream in close to 24 months, and a 50 KTPA precipitated silica expansion at Cuddalore was approved for ₹775 cr at Q3 FY26. Q3 FY26: Pearl grade silica capacity of 3,000 MTPA was commissioned at Cuddalore in December 2025, with installed capacity at 13,800 MTPA - the full 50,000-60,000 ton expansion is not yet delivered.
27. UK baseline EBITDA - £2.5 cr plus £1 cr from pharma salt Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided UK baseline EBITDA of about £2.5 crore to move up by around £1 crore on account of pharma salt; UK PBT losses were later expected to fluctuate between ₹30 and ₹45 crore quarterly, with FY26 PAT breakeven targeted. UK EBITDA fell from ₹347 cr in FY24 to ₹25 cr in FY25 and ₹88 cr in FY26, with Lostock ceasing production in Q3 FY25 - the guided baseline was never achieved.
28. \~1 million ton worldwide capacity additions - on stream over next 36 months Partial - At the Q1 FY24 call, management stated the \~1 million ton capacity additions - India \~300k, Kenya \~250k, US \~400k - were under execution and would come on stream over the next 36 months; phasing was later flagged as possibly extending into four years. India commissioned 230 kT of soda ash in FY25 and Kenya operationalized a 50 kT electric calciner in FY26, while the US expansion was paused - about 280 kT delivered of the \~1 million ton target.
29. Kenya expansion - 250,000 tons, $20-25 million capex Partial - At the Q1 FY24 call, management stated Kenya expansion capex would be around $20-25 million, largely de-bottlenecking, adding 250,000 tons; the plan later became a modular electric-calcination expansion of another 300,000 tons in about 36 months, starting with 50,000 tons on stream immediately. Q1 FY26: the 50-kiloton calciner was commissioned and went through trial runs, fully stabilized by March 2026, with Kenya capacity at 400,000 MTPA - the full 250,000-300,000 ton expansion is not yet delivered.
30. US margins and volume - lead, marginally improve and hold through FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided that the US would lead in margins and volume, expected to marginally improve and hold right through the year; export realizations were later flagged as resetting quarterly. Q2 FY24: US EBITDA margin was 24%; Q3 FY24: it fell to 12% with pricing sharply lower YoY and export realization erosion of \~$100 per ton vs the previous year's Q4.
31. India/Kenya margins - improve from Q2 FY24 as coal costs moderate Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided that India and Kenya margins, currently flat, would improve from Q2 FY24 as coal costs moderated, returning to previous margin levels at constant prices. Q1 FY24: India soda ash volumes were down 8% with prices lower; Q4 FY24: India EBITDA was ₹192 cr vs ₹875 cr for FY24 and Kenya EBITDA ₹39 cr vs ₹211 cr - margins deteriorated rather than improved.
32. UK pharmaceutical grade salt - on stream by FY24 year-end Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management committed that pharmaceutical salt capacity in the UK would come on stream by the year end (FY24), with pharma salt brought to market next year, reaffirmed in Q1 FY24 with the plant to be operational by the end of the year. Q2 FY25: the pharma salt plant was only commissioned in October 2024, missing the FY24 deadline, with first salt produced for the technical market pending customer qualification; the 70,000 TPA Medi-Salt plant was subsequently commissioned in the UK.
33. Net debt to near zero - in three to five years Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management committed to moving to net debt levels which are almost zero in a near term of three to five years; deleveraging every quarter and year was reiterated at Q3 FY25. Net debt rose from ₹3,898 cr in Mar 23 to ₹4,163 cr in Mar 24, ₹5,515 cr incl lease in Mar 25 and ₹5,961 cr external in Mar 26 - and the Q4 FY26 guidance abandoned near-term deleveraging.
34. Debt paydown - $200-250 million in FY24 Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management committed to a debt paydown of anywhere between $200 million to $250 million this year (FY24), including all envisaged CAPEX, with no borrowing or equity plans. Q1 FY24: about $95 million was repaid ($45 million US, $50 million Singapore); Q4 FY24: $110 million was paid down in the US in the first year of the cycle, including a $15 million prepayment in Q4 FY24 - no consolidated FY24 total matching $200-250 million in our record.
35. UK fixed margin structure - from Q1 FY24, full effect by Q2 Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management reiterated that the UK would move to a fixed margin structure from Q1 of FY24, with full effect seen by Q2, protecting from gas price gyrations; per-ton margins were later expected to track Q1 levels with contracts locked for the first three quarters. Q1 FY24: UK revenue rose 22% with EBITDA at 17%, but the margin fell to 10% by Q3 FY24, and Lostock production ceased in Q3 FY25 - no clean disclosure of the fixed-margin structure's full effect.
36. US debottlenecking - 400,000 tons capacity over 24-28 months Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided a US debottlenecking project to add about 400,000 tons of capacity over about 24 to 28 months, with detailed engineering in its final leg; the timeline later stretched to about 36 months. Q1 FY26: the US soda ash expansion was put on pause "for a couple of quarters or maybe a year" despite the public hearing and environment approval being obtained; Q1 FY27 shows no mention of a restart and no capacity addition disclosed.
37. Kenya debt-free - in another 12 to 18 months Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided that Kenya would become debt-free in another 12 to 18 months. Q3 FY23: for the first time Kenya was debt-free, with all debts prepaid in the last 9 months; Q4 FY23 confirmed Kenya became debt free during the year '23, and Q4 FY24 confirmed Kenya has no debt.
38. US debt paydown - $300 million to zero in broadly three years Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided that US debt of $300 million would be paid down at \~$100 million per year ($20-30 million per quarter), reaching zero in broadly three years' time, with acceleration if possible; the paydown was later flagged as possibly stretching to four years at maximum. Q2 FY23: USD 92 million was repaid in the quarter and USD 125 million over six months; Q4 FY24: $110 million was paid down in the first year of the cycle, with US debt at $258 million in Q2 FY24 - no disclosure of US debt reaching zero.
39. Specialty products (HDS/Nutra) - EBIT neutral by Q4 FY22 Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided specialty products would go from about 50-55% capacity utilization to 100% by Q4, with the plan to make the business at least close to EBIT neutral by Q4; the target was softened to EBITDA-positive performance and FOS/Nellore EBITDA positivity during the coming year. Q1 FY24: the standalone EBIT loss was almost ₹22 cr on ₹51 cr revenue, driven by nutraceuticals; later volumes grew - FY26 HDS sales volume up \~40% YoY - but no clean EBIT-neutral disclosure for the segment exists in our record.
40. UK carbon capture unit - fully functional and reportable by Q2 FY22 Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided that the UK carbon capture unit, almost complete and undergoing commissioning, should be fully functional and reportable by Q2 of this year. Q2 FY22: the UK Carbon Capture Unit was commissioned during the quarter, with \~40,000 tonnes of CO2 internally made, eliminating external CO2 purchases; the FY22 and FY23 annual reports confirm the 40 KT unit fully operationalised to EIGA standard.
41. Rallis seed business - fix and bring back to steady keel Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management stated it would fix the Rallis seed business and bring it back to at least a steady keel after moving from ₹10 cr profit to ₹20 cr loss; results of the programs were expected to show by Q2 of the next year. Q4 FY23: after a one-off provision of ₹63 cr, management said the clean-up was behind it; Q2 FY24: Rallis PAT was ₹81 cr vs ₹71 cr, up 15%, and growth continued through Q1 FY27.
42. Rallis multi-purpose plant - on track to complete by H1 FY23 Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management stated Rallis' multi-purpose plant was on track to complete by H1 FY23. The FY23 annual report notes the agrochemicals multipurpose plant (MPP) of 22 TPD capacity expansion planned for FY 2023-24, with the new multipurpose plant under commissioning, and lists "delay in adherence to project timelines (Agrochemicals)" as a key challenge - no later explicit completion disclosure in our record.
43. Mithapur Phase 1 capex - ₹2,700 cr soda ash +20%, salt +30%, on schedule Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided that the ₹2,700-odd crore CAPEX at Mithapur was on schedule and would increase soda ash capacity by about 20% and salt capacity broadly by about 30%; commissioning was later expected mostly by end of FY23, with 2.3 lakh tons of soda ash mostly on stream by September FY24. Q1 FY25: 2.3 lakh tons of soda ash and 70,000 tons of sodium bicarbonate capacity were commissioned at Mithapur, fully ramped by October 2024; salt capacity of 3.3 lakh MT was added in FY23, and Mithapur achieved 1 MTPA soda ash production in FY26.