1. Q4 FY26 EBITDA margin - 14.5-15% exit Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said when they exit Q4, EBITDA margin should be in the ballpark of 14.5-15%. Q4 FY26 EBITDA margin came in at 14.6%, within the guided range.
2. RTD seasonality - pick up from February, good position by end January/early February Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management expected RTD seasonality to pick up from February onwards and to be in a good position by end January/early February. RTD grew 28% volume and 23% revenue in Q4 FY26, and 41% revenue with 38% volume in Q1 FY27.
3. Numeric distribution reach - 0.5 crore outlets in medium term On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management targeted numeric distribution reach of about 0.5 crore outlets in the medium term, with direct reach aspirational \~0.19-0.2 crore. Numeric reach stood at 0.45 crore in Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27, with direct reach \~0.2 crore.
4. GTM national rollout - 100% by first week of February 2026 Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said the national GTM rollout would be 100% done by the first week of February 2026, with \~82% done at the time. The rollout of the new go-to-market system was complete by Q4 FY26, with the pan-India rollout finished in three months (Dec'25-Feb'26) across 64 core cities.
5. Consolidated double-digit revenue growth On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided consolidated double-digit revenue growth, with some quarters mid-teens and some low double digits; at Q4 FY26 they had guided top line double digits with EBITDA ahead. Revenue grew 12% in Q1 FY27, 18% in Q4 FY26 and 15% in FY26.
6. Starbucks - top-line growth close to high single digit On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided Starbucks top-line growth of "close to a high single digit" going forward. Starbucks revenue grew 11% YoY in Q1 FY27, after SSS of +5% and total growth of +7% in Q4 FY26.
7. India food business - 17-20% EBITDA margin glide path Pending - At the Q3 FY26 call, management targeted a good foods business in India at 17%+ EBITDA in the longer term, and at the Q1 FY27 call reiterated a medium-term aspiration of an EBITDA margin glide path toward 17-20% for the India food business. Q1 FY27 India business segment margin was 11.1%, after Q4 FY26 India EBITDA +57% YoY with +470 bps margin expansion.
8. Tea extracts capacity expansion - 2,000 MT within \~2 years Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management announced Board approval for a capacity expansion project on tea extracts, to start now. The announcement set out capacity addition of 2,000 metric tonnes (instant tea) within approximately 2 years, with investment up to ₹160 crore.
9. Vietnam capacity expansion - online very early 2027 Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said the Vietnam capacity expansion project (unbranded soluble) should be online "very early in 2027". The existing Vietnam soluble plant was running at 99% utilization in Q4 FY26, with no further disclosure on the expansion timeline.
10. FY27 EBITDA margin expansion - 50-75 bps On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management reiterated an FY27 EBITDA margin expansion target of 50-75 bps over FY26, calling it "a given… not an option", and at Q1 FY27 reiterated 50-70 bps. Q1 FY27 EBITDA margin was 13.6%, up 70 bps YoY, against an FY26 base of 13.9%.
11. Consolidated EBITDA margin - 16% by Q2/Q3 FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided consolidated EBITDA margin back to \~16% by end of Q2/early Q3 FY26, and at Q1 FY26 expected 16% by Q3 FY26. Margins were 12.9% in Q1 FY26, 13.6% in Q2, 14.2% in Q3 and 14.6% in Q4 FY26 - the 16% target was not achieved by Q3 FY26.
12. A&P-to-sales - 7.5% target Partial - At the Q3 FY25 call, management said A&P to sales "should be probably in the 7.5%", and later guided a step-up from \~6.8-6.9% toward 7.5-8% and then a 7.5-8.5% range going forward. A&P-to-sales ranged 5.9-7.4% across the tracked period - 6.7% in Q3 FY25, 7.4% in Q2 FY26, 5.9% in Q4 FY26 and 6.1% in Q1 FY27.
13. Capital Foods and Organic India - cash accretive FY25, EPS accretive FY26, overall accretive FY27 Pending - At the Q4 FY24 call, management stated Capital Foods and Organic India would be cash accretive from FY25, EPS accretive from FY26, and overall accretive by FY27. Combined gross margin was 48.4% in Q1 FY25, 50% in Q4 FY25, 48% in FY26 and 49% in Q1 FY27, with no explicit disclosure of cash or EPS accretion status against the timeline.
14. Innovation-to-sales - 5% target Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management set a target for NPD revenue contribution to exit FY23 at 3.5-3.8% of sales, with 5% as benchmark, later reiterated as a 5% innovation-to-sales target across FY24-FY26. Innovation/NPD contribution was 3.4% in FY23, 5.1% in FY24, 5.2% in FY25 and 4.5% in FY26, with 14 new products launched in Q1 FY27.
15. Salt - mid-single-digit volume growth Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management reaffirmed mid-single-digit volume growth for salt, later guided variously as mid-to-high single-digit volume growth, 4-5% volume and 5-7% business growth. Salt volumes grew 4% in FY24 and FY25, with 12% revenue growth and strong volumes in FY26 and 7% volume growth in Q1 FY27.
16. Tea - mid-single-digit volume growth, mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management reaffirmed mid-single-digit volume growth for tea and salt with high single-digit value growth over 2-3 years, reiterated across FY24-FY27. Tea volumes grew 2% in FY24, 1% in FY25, 4% in FY26 and 2% in Q1 FY27, while tea revenue grew 7% in FY24, 10% in FY25 and 6% in FY26.
17. Sampann margins - double-digit / mid-teens On track - At the Q4 FY23 call, management reaffirmed Sampann margins would move into double digits, later seeing a path to 12-15% over time and, by Q4 FY26, Sampann headed towards mid-teens margin. Sampann hit double-digit margins by Q3 FY26, and in Q1 FY27 margin expanded \~150-200 bps YoY, closing in on 12%.
18. NourishCo - 30% top line growth Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said NourishCo would "come back to the stated 30% top line growth very quickly", later expecting it by Q2/Q3 FY26 and reiterating 30% growth through Q4 FY26. RTD grew 31% volume in Q2 FY26 and 41% revenue in Q1 FY27, but FY26 full-year growth was only 10% after revenue fell 13% in Q1 FY26.
19. Rights issue - close by early Q2 FY25 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management stated the rights issue was on track and should conclude by early Q2 FY25, and at Q1 FY25 expected it to close on 19th August. The rights issue completed in the middle of Q2 FY25, leaving the company debt free and net cash positive with bridge finance squared off.
20. Tata Coffee merger - 5-10% EPS accretion Pending - At the Q1 FY24 call, management reaffirmed guidance of 5-10% positive impact on EPS from the Tata Coffee integration. FY24 adjusted EPS was ₹15.53, up 31%, with a one-time \~₹92 crore tax-line gain from US corporate structure simplification, but no explicit disclosure isolating the merger's EPS impact against the 5-10% guidance.
21. Tata Coffee merger - complete in FY24 Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management committed to completing Tata Coffee integration "very quickly hopefully in this financial year" once NCLT approvals came through, with the NCLT process expected in Q2 FY24. The Tata Coffee merger with TCPL became effective 1st January 2024, within FY24.
22. International business - EBIT margin accretive to India Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management committed that international business "margin-wise, has to be accretive to the India business", then \~200-300 bps better than overall/India. International EBIT margin was 12.6% in Q4 FY25 and +190 bps for FY25, but turned dilutive in FY26 (EBITDA -10% CC, margin -280 bps); Q1 FY27 international margin of 13.0% was again above India's 11.1%.
23. Consolidated EBITDA margin - 15% achieved, targeting higher Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management stated 15% EBITDA margins had been achieved and "now that becomes the base. From here on, we will be continuing to target higher", later guiding \~16% by Q2/Q3 FY26 and then 50-75 bps expansion for FY27. FY24 margin was 15.3%, but FY25 fell to 14.2% and FY26 to 13.9%, with Q1 FY27 at 13.6%, up 70 bps YoY.
24. Capital Foods and Organic India - 30% growth / business case delivery Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management stated Capital Foods and Organic India would be cash accretive from FY25, EPS accretive from FY26 and overall accretive by FY27, and reiterated \~30% top line growth through Q1 FY27, where 25-30% was called the "new normal". Combined revenue was ₹1,173 crore in FY25 (19% like-for-like growth) and grew 12% in FY26, before recovering to 35% combined growth in Q1 FY27 with gross margins consistently \~50%.
25. Organic India integration - 100 days Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management committed to completing Organic India integration in 100 days from the 16 April close, reiterated as "on track" at Q1 FY25. Stocks were pulled back to C&F from \~400 small distributors and integration took longer than expected; by Q3 FY25 management said Organic India "actually got going by June - about 3 months behind Capital Foods".
26. Capital Foods integration - 100 days Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management committed to completing Capital Foods front-end integration by mid-February 2024 with back-end/organization integration in 60-90 days, and at Q4 FY24 set a target of full integration in 100 days. Front-end and back-end integration were completed within 60 days of transaction close, with 95% of front-end distributors billing by end of April.
27. Growth businesses - 20% of portfolio growing at 30%, raised to 30% growing at 30% Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management said that with Organic India and Capital Foods added they were targeting 30% contribution growing at 30%, up from the original \~20% target, and reiterated this through Q1 FY27. Growth businesses grew 40% in FY24 (18% of India business), 24% in FY26 (31% share) and 47% in Q1 FY27 (36% share), but grew only 7% in Q1 FY26.
28. Tata Starbucks - 1,000 stores by FY28 On track - At the Q3 FY24 call, management reiterated the publicly announced target of 1,000 Starbucks stores by FY28, with a plan to open 1 new store every 3 days. Store count rose from 421 at Q4 FY24 to 479 at Q4 FY25 and 502 at Q4 FY26, though openings were tempered during QSR softness and Q1 FY27 showed 498 stores.
29. Tata Coffee Grand - high single-digit to low double-digit market share Pending - At the Q1 FY22 call, management stated an ambition for Tata Coffee Grand to reach "high single digit, low double-digit market share" in the \~₹2,500 crore instant coffee market in India. Coffee grew 29% in FY24, 33% in FY25 and 43% in FY26 with 42% value share in e-commerce, but no explicit disclosure of Tata Coffee Grand's share of the instant coffee market against the target.
30. NourishCo - multifold growth / ₹600 crore by FY23 / ₹900-1,000 crore by FY24 Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management said the objective for NourishCo was "not percentage growth, it is multifold growth", later guiding ₹600 crore for FY23 and ₹900-1,000 crore for FY24. FY23 revenue was upwards of ₹600 crore, but FY24 revenue of ₹825 crore missed the ₹900-1,000 crore guidance, with the miss attributed to delayed summer onset.
31. Tata Sampann - 30% CAGR growth Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management said Sampann's 30% CAGR was "not a good enough benchmark" and targeted "very aggressive numbers", later committing to 30% CAGR (value) "you can take it as given" and reiterating through Q3 FY26. Sampann grew 28% in FY22, 29% in FY23, 45% in FY24, 30% in FY25, 46% in FY26 and 58% in Q1 FY27.
32. Double numeric reach - 0.4 crore outlets by September 2023 Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management reiterated the commitment to double numeric reach in 36 months from September 2020, targeting \~0.4 crore outlets by September 2023, and tracked progress through Q2 FY24 ("more or less there" at 3.9, moved to 3.8 after rejigging sub-distributors). Direct reach was 0.16 crore with the company reaching 0.4 crore outlets by Q4 FY24, rising to 0.44 crore by Q4 FY25 and 0.45 crore by Q4 FY26.
33. India beverages margins - back on track by FY22 Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management committed that India beverages margins would come back on track by FY2022 via graduated price increases if tea prices did not moderate, and at Q1 FY22 guided margins "coming back strongly in a quarter or two". India beverages gross/EBIT margins jumped 1,100+ bps YoY in Q3 FY22 and \~1,500 bps in Q4 FY22, with India tea margins expanding 1,000 bps from Q1 FY22 to Q1 FY23.
34. Soulfull integration - within 90-100 days Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided Soulfull integration would be completed within about 90-100 days, subject to COVID, and at Q1 FY22 reiterated the 100-day commitment as "well on track". Integration was completed by Q2 FY22, with the business then at 4x the number of outlets previously serviced, and the Tata Soulfull rebrand confirmed the 100-day integration in Q4 FY22.
35. Merger synergies - ₹100-150 crore EBIT-level in 18-24 months Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management confirmed earlier guidance of \~2-3% total synergies with an 18-24 month timeline, restated at Q4 FY21 as approximately ₹100-150 crore EBIT-level synergies with ₹5-7 crore monthly run-rate cost synergies already realized. By Q4 FY22, management stated the synergy program was "almost completely delivered as committed" - the entire ₹100-150 crore had been delivered by the September quarter.
36. India Foods and Beverages integration - substantially complete by FY21 Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management guided that integration of India Foods and India Beverages would be substantially complete by FY21, with activity extending to Q4. India business integration was complete by Q4 FY21, with distribution integration finished around December-January and pan-India harmonization complete by Q1 FY22.
37. Third phase of S&D consolidation - complete by FY21 Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management guided that the third phase of S&D consolidation (larger rural and other consolidation) would be complete by this year (FY21), with substantial benefits flowing through later that year. Two of three phases were complete as of Q2 FY21, and by Q4 FY21 India business integration was complete with distribution integration finished around December-January.
38. Double direct reach - 1 million outlets by September 2021 Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management reiterated its commitment to double direct reach over the next 12 months, targeting 1 million (10 lakh) outlets by September 2021 from \~500,000 outlets; the target was later raised to 0.13 crore by FY22 and 0.15 crore by March 2023. Direct reach hit 1.1 million outlets in September 2021, ahead of the commitment, reached 0.13 crore by March 2022 and 0.15 crore by March 2023, and stood at \~0.2 crore by Q4 FY26.