1. Same-store sales growth - 15-20% Pending - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided same-store sales growth target of "around 15% to 20%". No same-store sales growth figure is disclosed in our record for FY24, FY25, or FY26, while FY24 revenue declined 3.96% (SQL).
2. ROE - above 10% in coming quarters and improving continuously Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management stated they foresee ROE to be above 10% in coming quarters and improving continuously. ROE was 9.05% in FY24, rose to 10.41% in FY25, and reached 24.14% in FY26 (SQL).
3. Franchise stores - a few to open around Diwali 2023 Partial - At the Q1 FY24 call, management stated a few franchise stores would open around Diwali 2023, later revised at Q3 FY24 to 2 FOFO stores by late Q4 FY24 or early Q1 FY25 and 5-8 FOFO stores by Diwali 2024. FY24 ended with 3 franchise stores unchanged from earlier periods, and while new stores opened in FY25, our record does not confirm 5-8 FOFO stores by Diwali 2024.
4. PAT margin - more than 2.5% for FY24 Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided PAT margin of more than 2.5% for the full financial year FY24. FY24 PAT margin was 2.35% (SQL), falling short of the target.
5. 20% sales growth in FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided approximately 20% sales growth in FY24, later widened to 15-20% at Q1 FY24. FY24 revenue was ₹2,299 cr, a decline of 3.96% YoY (SQL).
6. Double-digit ROCE - targeted for FY23 Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, the CFO stated the entire effort was targeted towards double-digit ROCE in FY23. FY23 ROCE was 8.52% (SQL), below double digits, with the threshold crossed only in FY25 at 10.48% (SQL).
7. Double-digit revenue growth for FY23 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management targeted double-digit revenue growth for FY23. FY23 revenue grew 29.82% YoY (SQL), well above the double-digit target.
8. Store expansion - 5-8 stores in FY23 Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided opening five to eight stores in FY22-23, later revised to 5-6 stores at Q4 FY22 and three more in FY23 at Q2 FY23. Only one new store opened in FY23, taking the total from 31 to 32 stores.
9. Revenue - ₹1,900-2,000 cr, reaching ₹2,100-2,200 cr by \~end 2023 Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, the CFO guided revenue could reach ₹2,100-2,200 cr probably by end 2023. FY23 revenue was ₹2,394 cr (SQL), exceeding the target.
10. EBITDA margins - 6-7% as a normal quarter expectation Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided EBITDA margins of 6-7% as a normal quarter expectation, later revised to 7-9% at Q2 FY22, 5-6% for FY23 at Q4 FY22, and above 6.5% in immediate quarters at Q3 FY24. The 6-7% range was first sustainably achieved from Q1 FY25 onward, and FY26 EBITDA margin reached 11.27% (SQL).
11. Online sales - 5-10% of sales in 2-4 years Pending - At the Q3 FY21 call, management stated 5-10% of sales happening online was possible in 2-4 years, implying a horizon of Dec 2022 to Dec 2024. Online sales remained minuscule through FY24, and by Q2 FY23 the company had no online product sales at all.
12. Store expansion - a few more stores in FY22 Missed - At the Q3 FY21 call, management stated a few more stores would open in FY22, later revised at Q1 FY22 as looking difficult and reaffirmed at Q3 FY22 as one or two stores by end of FY22. FY22 ended with 31 stores and no new stores were opened.
13. Q3 and Q4 FY21 revenue - close to FY20 levels Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management stated Q3 and Q4 FY21 revenue would be close to FY20 levels. Q3 FY21 revenue was ₹623.28 cr vs ₹644.56 cr in Q3 FY20, and Q4 FY21 revenue was ₹366.08 cr vs ₹342.52 cr in Q4 FY20.
14. Blended gross margins - 17-18% for remainder of FY21 Missed - At the Q2 FY21 call, management guided GP margins at around 17-18% for the remainder of FY21. Q3 FY21 gross margin was 16% and Q4 FY21 gross margin was 12.89%, both below the guided range.
15. No new store openings and virtually no capex for rest of FY21 Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management stated there were virtually no capex plans and no new store openings for the rest of FY21. No new stores opened in FY21, and the company ended the year with 31 stores after closing six.
16. Own online jewellery buying platform - launch "very soon" Partial - At the Q1 FY21 call, management stated TBZ was on the verge of launching its own online jewellery buying platform very soon, reiterated at Q4 FY22 and Q2 FY23. A portal launched in Q2 FY21 but remained immaterial through FY26, with the Q4 FY24 PPT still stating the company will continue focusing on its e-commerce strategy.
17. KP advances - return to ₹120-140 cr in 2-4 months Missed - At the Q1 FY21 call, management expected KP advances to return to ₹120-140 cr in two to four months from the then-level of \~₹90 cr. FY21 full-year KP advances were approximately ₹89-90 cr, falling short of the target.