Thaai Casting Ltd Guidance Report - SOIC x StockScans Report

as of Jul 2026

  1. Brazil project to start from July 2026 Pending - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided the Brazil project (cumulative order value ₹91 cr over 60 months) has been postponed from January 2026 to July 2026. Q4 FY26: initial trial samples given; commitment volumes from customer not received yet. July 2026 has not been reached as of today (14 July 2026).
  2. New CEO to join by end-February or early-March 2026 Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided a new CEO has been selected, appointment order issued, expected to join by end-February or early-March 2026. Our record holds no disclosure confirming the CEO's joining; Q4 FY26 transcript and filings do not mention a new CEO.
  3. Defense segment entry in FY26 Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management stated the company is targeting to enter the defense segment, with samples being made, and targeting "this coming year" (FY26). Vendor approval and sample approval achieved in FY26; trial purchase order status not disclosed; no defense revenue confirmed in FY26.
  4. Cash flow positive every year from FY25 onwards On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided the company will be cash flow positive every year from now onwards. FY25 net cash flow from operating activities was ₹1.19 cr and FY26 was ₹35.44 cr, both positive; subsequent years remain in the future.
  5. Maximum total debt of ₹120-130 cr Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided maximum total debt will reach ₹120-130 cr. FY26 total borrowings: long-term ₹66.03 cr + short-term ₹56.98 cr = ₹123.01 cr. Within the ₹120-130 cr range.
  6. Entire ₹100 cr capex (gear shaping plant) completed by end of FY26 Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided the entire ₹100 cr capex (gear shaping plant, including building construction) would be completed by end of FY26. Q4 FY26: plant 90% complete, machine in installation stage. Total fixed assets including CWIP rose to ₹178.53 cr in FY26 from ₹103 cr in FY25. The plant was not fully completed by end of FY26.
  7. Net profit margin of 11-12% Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided net profit margin will maintain 11-12%. FY25 NPM: 9.90%. FY26 NPM: 8.71%. The 11-12% range was not achieved in either year.
  8. Revenue mix 60% automotive, 40% non-automotive Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided "60% to 40%, I want to maintain" for automotive vs. non-automotive revenue mix. Q2 FY25: mix was 80% automotive, 20% non-automotive. Q2 FY26: entire order book (₹522.79 cr) was automotive. No non-automotive revenue breakout disclosed in FY26 results. The 60:40 target was never approached.
  9. Total debt by end of FY25 approximately ₹77-80 cr Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided total debt by end of FY25 would be approximately ₹77-80 cr. FY25 long-term borrowings ₹45.87 cr + short-term borrowings ₹43.86 cr = ₹89.73 cr. The ₹77-80 cr target was exceeded.
  10. Export business to start from FY26 onwards Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided that export business will start from next year (FY26) onwards. No export revenue disclosed in FY26; management stated exports planned for FY27. The Brazil export project was postponed to July 2026.
  11. Wind energy capex machines arrive by September 2025; revenue from H1 FY27 Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided wind energy capex machines (ordered) would arrive by September 2025, with revenue starting from H1 FY27. Machines arrived later than September 2025; installation ongoing as of May 2026. Revenue has not yet started; commercialisation expected in FY26-27.
  12. FY26 EBITDA margin of 25-26% / 27% Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided FY26 EBITDA margin maintained at 25-26%. At the Q4 FY25 call, management committed to 27% EBITDA margin for FY26. FY26 EBITDA margin was 24.93%. The 27% target was missed; the earlier 25-26% band was also narrowly missed.
  13. FY26 consolidated revenue of ₹190-200 cr Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided FY26 revenue of ₹190-200 cr. FY26 consolidated revenue was ₹146.36 cr, falling short of the guided range.
  14. FY25 net profit margin of minimum 10% Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided FY25 net profit margin of minimum 10%. FY25 consolidated net profit margin was 9.90%. Explicit FY25 target missed by 10 bps; effectively at the threshold.
  15. FY25 EBITDA margin of \~26% Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided FY25 EBITDA margin of \~26%. FY25 EBITDA margin was 25.02%. Explicit FY25 target missed by \~98 bps; close to guided range.
  16. FY25 consolidated revenue of ₹125-130 cr Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided FY25 consolidated revenue of ₹125-130 cr, revised down from an earlier expectation of ₹140-145 cr. FY25 consolidated revenue was ₹122.21 cr. The ₹125-130 cr range was narrowly missed.
  17. Revenue of ₹250-300 cr in 2 years (by FY26) Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided they were "aiming, working towards" achieving "around INR250 crores to INR300 crores" in revenue in the "next 2 years" (i.e., by FY26). FY26 revenue was ₹146.36 cr. The ₹250-300 cr target was not reached.
  18. Revenue growth of 55-60% every year Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided that "every year minimum 55% to 60% revenue" growth is planned. FY25 revenue was ₹122.21 cr, growth 72.21%. FY26 revenue was ₹146.36 cr, growth 19.12%. The 55-60% minimum was missed in FY26.
  19. Maintain EBITDA margin of 27-30% Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided that "around 27 to 30 EBITDA will be definitely maintained". FY25 EBITDA margin was 25.02%. FY26 EBITDA margin was 24.93%. The 27-30% band was not achieved in either year.