1. International wireless POCs close in coming months Pending - In the Q3 FY26 announcement, management said field trials for wireless products were underway in India and international markets, with commercial negotiations expected to close in the coming months. The cited Q1 FY27 transcript page contains only the call header and management list, with no stated outcome on these negotiations; the sources do not show whether the POCs converted to orders.
2. BSNL pan-India 4G/5G network completion by end of FY25 Delivered - In the FY24 annual report, management stated Tejas was "well-poised to complete" the BSNL pan-India 4G/5G network project (100,000 sites) "by end of this year", i.e. by end FY25. By Q4 FY25 the company had shipped close to more than 100,000 sites, and FY25 supplies for the 100,000+ site network were completed.
3. 6G product launch by 2029, commercialization by 2030 Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said 6G would be commercialized only around 2030, with product launches probably in 2029 and technology capability demonstrations starting next year. No 6G product launch or commercialization has occurred; the horizon has not been reached.
4. TJ1600-D3 DCI product customer deployment by end of FY27 or early FY28 Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said the TJ1600-D3 DCI product would go through several POCs and field trials this year, with customer deployment "maybe towards the end of the financial year or early financial year". In Q1 FY27 the product was at initial customer engagements being positioned for field trials; the horizon has not been reached.
5. Positive EBITDA and EBIT within 12-18 months Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management's first target on the path to profitability was positive EBITDA and EBIT, then PAT profitability, and management agreed "12 to 18 months is a reasonable time to expect". Q1 FY27 EBIT was negative Rs.194 crore, and the 12-18 month horizon has not been reached.
6. NEC-related investment largely in FY26 Pending - At the Q1 FY26 call, the CFO said a large part of the NEC-related investment would happen in FY26, with maybe a small portion trickling into FY27. At Q4 FY25 the NEC capital outlay was not yet recorded, and no specific disclosure isolates the NEC investment quantum in FY26, though Q1 FY27 net borrowings stood at INR4,277 crore.
7. BSNL receivables collected during FY26 Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected a large part of the BSNL 4G milestone-linked receivables to be collected during FY26, later saying collections would come "through during this year". Receivables fell from Rs.4,026 crore in Q2 FY26 to Rs.3,258 crore by Q4 FY26, but a large part remained uncollected at year-end.
8. BSNL 4G add-on order (\~Rs.1,500 crore) received and executed in FY26 Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected the \~Rs.1,500 crore BSNL order for 18,000-plus 4G expansion sites to be received and executed within FY26. The PO was still delayed in Q3 FY26 and remained unreceived in Q1 FY27, with execution reset to FY27.
9. Working capital taper down over next couple of quarters Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said working capital would taper down over the next couple of quarters as BSNL 4G execution progressed. Working capital instead increased in Q1 FY25 and Q2 FY25, with trade receivables at INR4,730 crore in Q3 FY25, before declining by Rs.214 crore in Q4 FY25.
10. BSNL 5G upgrade POC in next few months Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said a POC for the 5G upgrade would be done in the next few months, after which they expected the 5G upgrade business (\~40% of the existing 1 lakh sites). By Q2 FY25 POCs were ongoing with the PO not yet received, and as of Q3 FY26 the upgrade's size and timing were still unknown.
11. 5G product launch targeted for FY25 Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management stated the 5G launch "will happen sometime next year," in various phases. In FY25 the company made production releases of additional 4G radio bands; the 64T64R massive MIMO radio was launched at the Indian Mobile Congress only around Q2 FY26, alongside a first 5G RAN deployment.
12. \~50% of wireless order book execution in FY24 Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management stated roughly 50% of the wireless order book would be executed in FY24. By Q4 FY24 the company had cumulatively shipped more than 10,000 sites of 4G/5G RAN equipment, with \~90% of the 1 lakh-site order yet to be executed.
13. Cash flow positive at operating level in FY24 Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management said it was working towards being cash flow positive at the operating level in FY24. Q2 FY24 delivered a positive operating cash flow of Rs.532 crore, but Q4 FY24 cash flow from operations was Rs.(1,281) crore and no positive full-year figure was disclosed.
14. Profitability in FY24 Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management said it was driving towards profitability for FY24. FY24 PAT was Rs.63 crore, so the company was profitable in FY24.
15. Saankhya merger completed by end of FY24 Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected the Saankhya merger for the remaining 35% stake to be completed "over the next few quarters", likely "by the end of this fiscal year or thereabouts" (FY24). At Q4 FY24 the remaining steps were still pending, and the merger was completed in Q2 FY25, one quarter late.
16. BSNL router order execution almost entirely within FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected the Rs.696 crore BSNL router (backhaul) order to be executed almost entirely within FY24, with residue possibly into a quarter of FY25. By Q4 FY24 close to 15,000 IP/MPLS routers were deployed for BSNL's MAAN network, and FY24 supplies were completed by end of FY24.
17. Optical gross margin return to \~38-40% in H2 FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected optical gross margin to return to historical levels of \~38%-40% "at least in the second half of FY24 and definitely in the following financial year (FY25)". Q2 FY24 margins were unchanged across recent quarters and management declined margin guidance at Q3 FY24, with no disclosure confirming the return to \~38-40%.
18. \~70% of Rs.1,934 crore order book execution in FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected \~70% of the Rs.1,934 crore order book to be executable in FY24. FY24 revenue was Rs.2,471 crore, exceeding the \~70% conversion target on the opening order book, reflecting new orders received during the year.
19. Historical EBITDA levels of \~15% in medium term Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management targeted reaching historical EBITDA levels of around 15% "in the medium term, which is between next year and the following" (FY24-FY25). FY25 EBIT margin was \~10.1% on revenue of Rs.8,923 crore, and FY26 EBIT was negative Rs.1,085 crore.
20. Wireless focus on India, international in next calendar year Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management expected wireless to focus on India "to begin with" and go international "in the next calendar year" (CY2024). Through Q4 FY24 and Q1 FY25 wireless POCs were all in India with international engagements at an initial phase, and the first commercial international win came in Q1 FY27.
21. Design-led PLI year-one requirements met in FY23 Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management expected to meet the design-led PLI year-one requirements for investment and incremental sales and to receive payouts based on first-year performance itself. By Q4 FY23 the year-one capital commitment was made and minimum revenue believed achieved, but the \~Rs.32 crore potential incentive was not recognized in FY23 as the claim application had not been filed.
22. Pan-India optical tender order close in Q4 FY23 Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management expected the large pan-India tender order, where Tejas was L1, to close "sometime in this quarter" (Q4 FY23), possibly the largest single optical order till date. In Q4 FY23 the company won the Pan India router tender worth around Rs.696 crore, announced once the physical order was received.
23. Saankhya 5G broadcast application in 12-18 months Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management expected Saankhya's 5G broadcast application to open up across a larger set of operators globally "in the next 12 to 18 months". Meaningful broadcast/D2M revenues were still only expected in FY24, and no significant 5G broadcast revenue was reported within the window, with D2M trials completed only by Q1 FY27.
24. 5G radios qualified by end of CY2022 Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management expected 5G radios/5G RAN solutions to be qualified by customers "by the end of this calendar year" (CY2022) and ready for commercial deployment in CY2023. The 4G and 5G wireless products were only introduced at the India Mobile Congress in Q2 FY23, and the 5G product launch was still pending as of Q4 FY24, arriving in FY25.
25. BSNL ECL receivables collection in FY23 Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management expected to collect the \~Rs.67 crore (Rs.93 crore) BSNL ECL-provided receivables "in the coming quarter in this financial year" / "over this year itself". By Q4 FY23 BSNL receivables had reduced quite a bit with some ECL provisioning reversed on account of collections, though some residual remained.
26. Saankhya Labs acquisition closing by end of Q1 FY23 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management expected the Saankhya Labs acquisition to close by the end of Q1 FY23, with the Saankhya team on-boarded by the start of Q2 FY23. 63.43% of Saankhya Labs shares were acquired and it became a subsidiary as of July 1, 2022, at the start of Q2 FY23.
27. \~70% of Rs.1,175 crore order book execution in FY23 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management expected \~70% of the closing order book of Rs.1,175 crore to be executed in FY23, later reframing it as 70-75% over the next 12 months. FY23 revenue was Rs.920 crore, about 78% of the opening order book, exceeding the \~70% target.
28. Gross margin return to \~39-40% in a couple of quarters Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management said returning to the steady-state gross margin level of around 39% to 40% "will take a couple of quarters", with the target repeatedly pushed out through FY23. Q1 FY23 gross margin was unchanged from Q4 FY22, Q3 FY23 saw further pressure, and FY23 gross margin declined.
29. \~50% of Rs.986 crore backlog conversion in Q4 FY22 and Q1 FY23 Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management expected \~50% of the Rs.986 crore opening-quarter backlog to potentially convert to revenue in the current and next quarter, provided inventories were secured. Q4 FY22 revenue was Rs.126.5 crore and Q1 FY23 revenue Rs.126 crore, a combined \~Rs.252.5 crore, far below the \~Rs.493 crore implied.
30. PLI benefits to start accruing from FY22 Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management expected PLI scheme benefits to start accruing from the current financial year (FY22). No PLI incentive was recognized in FY22; the company shifted the five-year incentive block to start from FY23, the \~Rs.32 crore FY23 incentive was not recognized that year, and benefits were first recognized in FY24.
31. Revenue baseline of \~Rs.200 crore per quarter / \~Rs.800 crore per year Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management stated a revenue baseline of around Rs.200 crore per quarter / around Rs.800 crore per year was needed to return to prior operating performance levels. FY22 revenue was Rs.550.6 crore, below the baseline; Q2 FY23 crossed Rs.200 crore per quarter after about 10-11 quarters, and FY23 revenue of Rs.920 crore exceeded the annual baseline.
32. Steady-state working capital metrics normalization in a couple of quarters Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided steady-state working capital metrics - DSOs \~135-145 days, payables \~90 days, inventory \~80-90 days, total \~130-140 days - with normalization expected in a couple of quarters. Q3 FY22 working capital reduced by only Rs.7 crore and Q4 FY22 net working capital increased by Rs.18 crore, with inventory and receivables remaining elevated.
33. BSNL 4G base station rollout over 12-24 months Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management expected the BSNL 4G base station rollout (57,000-60,000 base stations, \~Rs.10,000 crore outlay), if the POC succeeded, to be executed over the next 12 to 24 months. The POC completed in Q4 FY22, Tejas received its single largest order of Rs.7,492 crore from TCS for 100,000 sites, and cumulative shipments crossed 100,000 sites by Q4 FY25 - later than the original window but with full delivery.
34. PLI investment of \~Rs.115-120 crore over four years Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management stated the PLI application investment was around Rs.115-120 crore over a four-year period, later upgraded to a Rs.750 crore commitment with maximum eligible incentives of close to Rs.2,800 crore. The design-led PLI application was approved for Rs.750 crore, with Rs.32.66 crore granted for FY22-23, Rs.123 crore plus a Rs.189 crore tranche received by FY25, and cumulative incentives of Rs.467 crore for FY25.
35. International more than 40% of FY22 revenues Missed - At the Q4 FY21 call, management said international should be more than 40% of total revenues in FY22, with "a fairly good chance" international would grow faster than India again. FY22 international revenue was \~Rs.200 crore, flat versus Rs.205 crore in FY21, and international fell to 36% of revenues from 40%, with India at 64%.
36. \~50% of Rs.679 crore order book conversion in FY22 Partial - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided \~50% of the Rs.679 crore order book (around Rs.350 crore) would convert to revenue in FY22, later moderating to \~45% of a Rs.783 crore book. FY22 revenue was Rs.550.6 crore, indicating meaningful execution but below the guided \~50% conversion of the opening order book.
37. International double-digit growth in FY21 Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management said international growth should "definitely" be double-digit in FY21. FY21 international revenues grew 62% year-on-year, rising to 40% of total revenues from 33% in FY20.
38. DSO and inventory days reduction during FY21 Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management expected DSO and inventory days to come down during the coming quarters of FY21, with working capital improving through the year. Inventory fell from Rs.238 crore to Rs.214 crore, trade receivables from Rs.456 crore to Rs.414 crore, working capital reduced by around Rs.90 crore, and cash improved from Rs.272 crore to Rs.364 crore.
39. BharatNet overdue receivables collection in FY21 Partial - At the Q1 FY21 call, management expected the \~Rs.110 crore of overdue BharatNet receivables (excluding \~Rs.70 crore retention) to be collected in FY21. FY21 BSNL collections were about Rs.62 crore, and the outstanding fell to \~Rs.52 crore excluding retention by Q4 FY21, so the full \~Rs.110 crore was not collected within the year.
40. \~Rs.210 crore of FY21 order book execution in FY21 Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management expected \~35% of the Rs.593 crore order book (approximately Rs.210 crore) to be executed in the rest of FY21, with the balance for the next two years. FY21 revenue was Rs.514.8 crore against Q1 FY21 revenue of Rs.77.4 crore, consistent with or above the guided execution quantum.