1. ABB TCMS technology transfer - in-house TCMS capability Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 PPT, management disclosed the ABB India alliance would enable in-house TCMS capabilities including driverless (GoA 4) TCMS, a TCMS Laboratory and source codes. TCMS work for Gujarat Metro moved per schedule in Q2 FY25, and the Q4 FY26 PPT records a milestone agreement covering 25 kV driverless metro plus localisation of converters and traction motors, completing the TCMS portfolio for all Indian metro traction systems.
2. Sidwal JV - ₹120 cr investment each Missed - At the Q3 FY24 PPT, management disclosed Titagarh and Sidwal would each invest ₹120 cr in an SPV for railway components, a new facility and fresh investment in Titagarh Firema. In Q3 FY25 management clarified Sidwal is an independent company with a strategic alliance, not a JV; the record holds no disclosure of the ₹120 cr investment or SPV formation.
3. Freight wagon volume - FY26 in line with FY25 Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management said FY26 wagon volumes would be in line with last year's 9,431 wagons and was "almost certain" of recovering the Q1 production loss. FY26 dispatches were 7,019 wagons, hit by wheelset and west Asia supply-chain constraints, \~26% below target.
4. PRS revenue contribution - inflection in FY26, further in FY27 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided Passenger Rail Systems revenue to start in FY25, with the real inflection in FY26 and further in FY27. PRS revenue rose from ₹255.55 cr in FY25 (-41.35% YoY) to ₹539.33 cr in FY26 (+111%), and Q1 FY27 delivered ₹230 cr, +197% YoY, 31% of revenue.
5. Aluminium coach facility - completed by Q1 FY27 Partial - At the Q1 FY26 PPT, management guided the aluminium metro coach facility to be completed by Q1 FY27, making the company the only one in India with both stainless steel and aluminium metro capability. The machines are acquired and under installation/commissioning as of Q1 FY27, with the line now guided fully commissioned by Q1 FY28.
6. EMU propulsion prototype - dispatch by Q2 FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided the first EMU propulsion set to be supplied within Q1 FY26 or the beginning of Q2. The first set was approved by RDSO in Q3 FY26, and by Q1 FY27 two rakes of EMU propulsion equipment had been supplied.
7. Titagarh Naval Systems - Falta shipyard operational On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided the new shipyard at Palta to be fully up and running between Q1 and Q2 of FY28, with the Falta brownfield yard planned at \~₹600 cr capex and a June 2026 launch. Work on the Palta yard has started on the ground, and TNSL secured ₹169 cr under the Shipbuilding Financial Assistance Scheme.
8. Wagon leasing - license and first order Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management said the wagon leasing license had been applied for and was hoped for soon. The license was awarded in Q3 FY26, and the Q4 FY26 PPT records the first order from Balmer Lawrie for 2 rakes on a 10-year operating lease.
9. Promoter warrant issue - ₹200 cr infusion On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, promoters committed to infuse ₹200 cr via preferential issue. By the Q4 FY26 PPT, warrants were allotted at ₹947/share with ₹50 cr received and the balance due within 18 months; Q1 FY27 PPT shows promoter holding rising to 41.44% post-conversion.
10. Uttarpara land expansion - 50 cars/month phase, test track On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided the Uttarpara phase-I test track and 50 cars/month expansion to be implemented within 12 months. About 40 acres were acquired for \~₹136-137 cr, and the Q4 FY26 PPT confirms the expansion including a 1.6 km test track, with no completion disclosure yet as of Q1 FY27.
11. Pune Metro repeat order - aluminium coaches On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided first train delivery in 18-24 months, with completion 6-9 months thereafter. The aluminium line machines are under installation/commissioning as of Q1 FY27, with delivery of 12 trains now guided for Q3 or Q4 FY28, possibly earlier.
12. Mumbai Metro Line 5/6 - first train delivery On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided Line 6 (108 coaches) at \~24-month execution from the August 2 LoA, with the first train \~62 weeks from August 2. Prototyping is starting in parallel as of Q1 FY27, with the Mumbai prototype guided for Q4 FY27 or Q1 next calendar year and no train delivered yet.
13. Metro coach production - 100-120 cars in FY26 Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management targeted metro cars to grow from 12 in FY25 to 120 in FY26, a ten-fold jump. FY26 dispatches were 64 coaches versus 12 last year, with management walking the target back to "pretty close" in Q3 FY26.
14. Foundry capacity expansion - 40,000 tonnes, then 50,000 MT Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management targeted \~40,000 tonnes of castings in the first phase within FY26 on a monthly run-rate basis. The Q4 FY26 PPT records the foundry upgraded with resin-based moulding and capacity expanded to 50,000 MT per annum, capable of 100% backward integration, against FY25 production of 27,240 MT.
15. Shipbuilding/Defence - strategic partner or independent path Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected concrete steps toward making shipbuilding/defence independent, possibly with a strategic partner, to crystallize within FY25. The shipbuilding demerger into Titagarh Naval Systems was completed by Q3 FY26, the new Palta shipyard work started by Q1 FY27, and TNSL secured ₹169 cr of financial assistance.
16. Surat and Ahmedabad Metro - production and delivery Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided Surat and Ahmedabad production to start in May 2024 with the first Surat train dispatched within FY25. The first Ahmedabad train was flagged off in Q3 FY26 and two trains delivered by Q1 FY27, roughly 2-3 quarters later than the Q4 FY25/Q1 FY26 target, with series production now underway.
17. Propulsion business - full entry in 2-3 years, margin contribution On track - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided propulsion P&L contribution in FY24 and the real extent in FY25, taking three years to achieve. Propulsion order book reached \~₹500 cr by Q3 FY26, two rakes of EMU propulsion were supplied by Q1 FY27, and PRS EBIT margin hit 14.66%, with full in-house integration still guided for FY28.
18. Traction motor capacity - 150-200/month, then 150/month target Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided reaching 150-200 traction motors/month as a 2-2.5 year journey, later targeting 150/month by mid-2025. Production ramped from \~53/month in FY25 (636 motors) to \~100/month in Q1 FY26, but Q1 FY27 dispatches were reported between 72 and 263 with no disclosure confirming sustained 150/month.
19. Capex - ₹1,000 cr total over multi-year period On track - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided total capex of ₹800-1,000 cr over the last 2-3 years plus the next 4-5 years. CWIP moved from ₹12.28 cr in FY23 to ₹71.57 cr in FY26 and FY26 capex was ₹368 cr versus ₹236 cr the year before, putting cumulative spend at roughly ₹900 cr against the ₹1,000 cr plan.
20. Forged wheel JV - production start by April 2026 On track - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided a plant with Ramkrishna Forgings for \~200,000 forged wheels per annum, with 80,000 wheels/year assured by Indian Railways for 20 years and production starting by April 2026. Cold commissioning of the forging line is complete, hot trials and August 2026 sample production are underway, and commercial operations are expected by Q2 FY27.
21. Vande Bharat - first train delivery and execution On track - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided the first Vande Bharat prototype in 24 months, balance trains over 4-4.5 years, plus 35-year maintenance. The deadline was revised several times, most recently to end of Q3/beginning of Q4 calendar 2026 and FY27 delivery, with the first car body produced in Q2 FY26 and no train delivered as of Q1 FY27.
22. Passenger coach capacity - 20 coaches/month, then 15-20 cars/month over a couple of years Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management stated capacity of 20 coaches/month with a target of 40 coaches/month via the stainless steel line, and a ramp-up to 15-20 cars in the next couple of years. FY26 dispatches reached 64 coaches against 12 the prior year and Q1 FY27 delivered 30 coaches, with the target restated as 45-50 coaches per quarter in FY27 - run-rates still below the guided monthly pace.
23. Bangalore Metro (CRRC) - production start and execution Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided Bangalore Metro production to start by end of FY23, with execution over two years. The first train was dispatched in December/January 2025, about 2-3 quarters later than the explicit July 2024 target, with the backlog now guided to clear within FY27.
24. Group ROCE - double-digit in 2-3 years Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management targeted "more than double-digit kind of ROCE" over the next two-three years when all businesses deliver to potential. ROCE was 20.57% in FY23, 19.38% in FY24 and 14.63% in FY25 within the window, before dipping to 8.85% in FY26.
25. Order book diversification - >50% non-freight wagons in 3-4 years Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management targeted more than 50% of the order book from other than freight wagons within three-four years. By Q1 FY27, PRS orders of ₹10,395 cr versus freight ₹2,470 cr put passenger rail systems at 80.8% of the standalone order book.
26. Wagon order execution - 24,177 wagons over 39 months by August 2025 Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided execution of the ₹7,800 cr wagon order over 39 months, with the Q4 FY23 call scheduling the 24,000-wagon order for completion by August 2025. FY25 production hit 9,431 wagons, the highest ever, but the record holds no confirmation of August 2025 completion, and the wagon order book still stood at 5,300 wagons in Q1 FY27.
27. Wagon production ramp-up - 700 wagons/month, then 1,000 wagons/month Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided reaching \~700 wagons/month within two to three months, later raising the target to 1,000/month within FY24. 1,000/month was crossed in December 2023 (1,021 wagons) and again in March 2024 (1,089 wagons), but the FY25 target of 950-1,000/month was missed on wheelset shortage, and output has since been scaled down deliberately to 600-650/month by Q1 FY27.
28. Propulsion/traction motor regular production - Q4 FY22 to Q1 FY23 Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management expected regular production of traction motors and propulsion systems with ABB to start in Q4 FY22 or Q1 FY23. The first traction motor was supplied in November 2022 from Uttarpara, the first sale from the propulsion division, with bulk supply clearance received July 10, 2023.
29. Pune Metro contract - fully executed by FY23, later FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided the Pune Metro contract to be fully executed in FY23, later revised to FY24. Production was by and large completed in March 2024 with 90%+ of contractual trains dispatched, dispatches finished by Q1 FY25, and the Q4 FY26 PPT confirms all 34 trainsets delivered.
30. Italian subsidiary EBITDA positive in FY23, net positive in FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided Titagarh Firema to be EBITDA positive in FY23 and net positive in FY24, later revised to EBITDA break-even in FY24. Firema ceased to be a subsidiary in September 2022, continued to run losses, and by Q3 FY26 Italian State Railways made an offer to buy out the company, with the Q4 FY26 PPT recording full provision for exited Italy investments and liabilities.
31. Italian legacy contracts - completed by Q4 FY22, spillover to Q1 FY23 Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management expected all legacy onerous contracts at the Italian subsidiary to be completed within Q4 FY22, later revised to June 2022 and then "done and dusted" within Q2 FY23. The FY23 annual report states the majority of TFA's legacy and other onerous contracts were completed during FY 2022-23, with operations consolidated at the single Caserta site.
32. Blended EBITDA margin - 8-10% sustained, later freight \~12% Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided blended India EBITDA margin of around 8-10%, later raising the freight target to 11.5-12%. OPM was 9.48% in FY23, 11.73% in FY24, 11.20% in FY25 and 12.40% in Q1 FY27, with freight PBIT margin at 12.97%, 12.91% and 12.21% across FY24-FY26, meeting both the floor and the freight target.