1. Thermal plant EBITDA - ₹1,000-1,200 cr annually from contracted capacity Delivered - In the 5 February 2026 announcement, Ind-Ra estimated thermal plants (gas and coal including DGEN) to generate EBITDA of ₹1,000-1,200 cr annually from contracted capacity. FY26 Generation segment EBITDA came in at ₹1,320 cr on revenue of ₹7,585 cr, slightly above the estimated range.
2. Net debt/EBITDA sustaining below 2.6x - CRISIL expectation Delivered - The 17 February 2022 announcement noted CRISIL expects continued strong profitability with net debt/EBITDA sustaining below 2.6 times, despite outflow towards acquisitions. FY25 net debt/EBITDA was 1.41x and FY26 came in at 2.06x, both below the 2.6x threshold.
3. Distribution loss commitment - maintain lower losses Delivered - The FY26 annual report states a commitment to maintain lower distribution losses through operational efficiency and network improvements. FY26 licensed distribution loss was 2.33%, among the lowest in the country, versus 2.34% in FY25.
4. Net leverage to peak beyond 4.0x in FY29-FY30 On track - The 6 February 2026 announcement noted net leverage expected to exceed 3.5x in 2028 and likely peak beyond 4.0x in fiscals 2029-2030, remaining comfortable thereafter. FY26 net debt/EBITDA was 2.06x, and Q1 FY27 added \~₹6,500 cr gross debt post-Nabha acquisition.
5. Renewable projects \~3.8 GWp under implementation - ₹24,000-25,000 cr over 2-3 years On track - The 6 February 2026 announcement noted renewable projects of \~3.8 GWp under implementation over the next 2-3 years for capex of ₹24,000-25,000 cr, revised to \~4.3 GW with ₹24,400 cr capex in April 2026. By Q1 FY27, 4.6 GW was under implementation at expected cost \~₹29,638 cr with cumulative RE capex of ₹8,800 cr.
6. Capex pipeline - >₹60,000 cr over FY26-FY32 On track - The 6 February 2026 announcement noted a capex pipeline of more than ₹60,000 cr over the medium term (fiscal 2026-2032 per Crisil), funded at debt:equity of 70:30 or 75:25. By Q1 FY27, planned capex included ₹29,600 cr RE, ₹23,000 cr Anuppur, ₹14,000 cr PSP and \~₹2,000 cr/year distribution, with ₹8,800 cr RE capex already incurred.
7. Nabha Power acquisition - closing by June 2026 Delivered - The 23 April 2026 announcement noted the Nabha Power acquisition, subject to remaining approvals, would likely be concluded by June 2026, with CCI approval received 7 April 2026. The acquisition was consummated on 25 June 2026, meeting the June 2026 timeline.
8. 5 GW renewable capacity in medium term Delivered - The FY24 annual report stated an aim to scale up renewable generation capacity to 5 GW within the medium term through organic and inorganic routes. By FY26 the renewable portfolio reached \~5,952 MWp - \~2,002 MWp operational and \~3,950 MWp under development, exceeding the 5 GW target.
9. Green hydrogen - 18 KTPA PLI capacity Pending - The Q4 FY26 PPT noted 18 KTPA capacity awarded under the PLI Scheme for Green Hydrogen production, with no explicit deadline. In FY26, in-principle approval for \~17,500 hectares of land in Gujarat was secured and a \~2% green hydrogen blending pilot in Torrent Gas's Gorakhpur network was commissioned.
10. 8.4 GW pumped storage pipeline - planning stage; 3 GW under construction On track - The Q4 FY25 PPT noted sites/projects of 8.4 GW under planning stage in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, reiterated at \~8.4 GW total planned PSP capacity in the Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27 PPTs. By Q1 FY27, 3 GW was under construction in Raigad with 2 GW tied up with MSEDCL, with the pipeline still spanning Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh.
11. Renewable portfolio to \~6.25 GWp - FY27 target On track - The Q1 FY27 PPT targeted increasing the renewable portfolio to \~6.25 GWp, with \~2.6 GW contracted and \~4.6 GW under installation at expected cost \~₹29,638 cr. As of 30 June 2026, operational renewables were \~2.1 GW with 4.6 GW under implementation, and total capacity including pipeline stood at \~12,345 MWp.
12. Renewable portfolio to \~5.95 GWp - FY26 target Delivered - The Q4 FY26 PPT targeted increasing the renewable portfolio to \~5.95 GWp. The FY26 annual report confirms the renewable portfolio at \~5,952 MWp - \~2,002 MWp operational and \~3,950 MWp under development - roughly 56% of \~10,644 MWp total capacity including under-construction.
13. Renewable portfolio to 4.9 GW - pipeline SCODs to June 2027 Pending - The Q4 FY25 PPT (14th May 2025) targeted increasing the renewable portfolio to 4.9 GW, with a \~3.1 GWp pipeline whose SCODs run from September 2025 to June 2027. The sources disclose no update on achievement of the 4.9 GW portfolio; with the target horizon still running, the outcome is not yet evidenced.
14. Torrent Gas (group) - ₹9,000 cr capex over 5 years Pending - The Q4 FY24 PPT noted Torrent Gas (a group company) had a capex plan of \~₹9,000 cr over the next 5 years, with \~₹5,000 cr undertaken till date. FY25 metrics show 17 GAs, >480 CNG stations and >1.8 lakh PNG connections, but no cumulative capex figure is disclosed in our record to judge progress.
15. SMK franchisee - AT&C losses to 12% going forward On track - The Q4 FY24 PPT guided SMK AT&C losses to come down to 12% going forward, from 30% in FY24, alongside \~₹300 cr capex over the agreement term. By FY26 SMK AT&C losses stood at \~23.1% and were \~20% near breakeven in Q3 FY26 - down from 30% with no explicit deadline set for 12%.
16. Dholera SIR licensed distribution - ₹1,200 cr investment over 10 years Pending - The Q4 FY24 PPT guided investment of about ₹1,200 cr over the next 10 years in Dholera SIR licensed distribution to cater to \~425 MVA demand. Dholera peak demand was 13 MW in FY25 and 18 MW in FY26, but no cumulative Dholera capex is disclosed in our record.
17. C&I Projects (435 MW) - COD progressively over 2 years Partial - The Q4 FY24 PPT guided C&I Projects (435 MW) COD progressively over 2 years at a project cost of ₹1,900 cr, later expanded to \~859 MWp at \~₹4,500 cr and \~776 MW / \~1,161 MWp at \~₹6,308 cr. By 30 June 2026 only \~74 MWp C&I solar was commissioned, against the lapsed two-year window from May 2024.
18. REMCL Hybrid (368 MW) - SCOD 24 months from PPA Pending - The Q4 FY24 PPT guided REMCL Hybrid (368 MW) SCOD 24 months from PPA at a tariff of ₹4.25/unit and project cost of ₹2,600 cr, later revised to 100 MW contracted / 411 MWp at ₹3,040 cr with SCOD by December 2026, then ECOD March 2027 and partly FY27 & balance FY28. No REMCL commissioning is disclosed as of 30 June 2026.
19. TPLD Hybrid (825 MW) - SCOD 24 months from PPA Pending - The Q4 FY24 PPT guided TPLD Hybrid (825 MW) SCOD 24 months from PPA at ₹3.65/unit and project cost ₹5,500 cr, later revised to 450 MW contracted with SCOD by September 2026, then Phase 1 September 2026 / Phase 2 March 2027 and progressively FY27-FY29. No TPL-D commissioning is disclosed as of 30 June 2026.
20. Airpower Hybrid (200 MW) - COD progressively by December 2025 Missed - The Q4 FY24 PPT guided Airpower Hybrid (200 MW) COD progressively by December 2025 as a merchant project costing ₹1,400 cr, revised in the Q4 FY25 PPT to 250 MW contracted / 250 MWp at ₹1,830 cr with commissioning likely by December 2025. That horizon lapsed without Airpower commissioning: the Q1 FY27 PPT shows no Airpower line, only 59.4 MW of unattributed merchant capacity commissioned and a 603 MWp merchant pipeline slated progressively FY27-FY28.
21. SECI XVI Wind (102 MW) - SCOD 24 months from PPA Partial - The Q4 FY24 PPT guided SECI XVI Wind (102 MW) SCOD 24 months from PPA at ₹3.60/unit and project cost ₹925 cr, later revised to 100 MW / 122 MWp with SCOD by June 2026, then December 2026 and partly FY27 & balance FY28. At Q1 FY27, delays driven by transmission availability/ROW issues were extending commissioning into FY28 with no capacity commissioned as of 30 June 2026.
22. SECI XII Wind (300 MW) - SCOD by December 2025 Partial - The Q4 FY24 PPT guided SECI XII Wind (300 MW) SCOD by December 2025 at ₹2.94/unit and project cost ₹2,500 cr, later revised to January 2026 with an SCOD extension applied for and commissioning partly FY27 & balance FY28. Delays were attributed to transmission/evacuation not being ready, with no capacity commissioned as of 30 June 2026.
23. MSEDCL Solar (425 MW) - SCOD by September 2025 Partial - The Q4 FY24 PPT guided MSEDCL Solar (425 MW) SCOD by September 2025 at ₹3.10/unit and project cost ₹1,550 cr, later restated as 306 MW contracted / 367 MWp at ₹1,342 cr with the same SCOD. After 84 MWp in Q4 FY25, 264 MW (316.8 MWp) was commissioned by 30 June 2026 with SCOD extensions sought.
24. TPLD Solar (420 MWp) - COD by Q1 FY25 Partial - The Q4 FY24 PPT guided the TPLD Solar project (420 MWp installed) to a likely COD by Q1 FY25 at ₹2.22/unit and project cost ₹1,800 cr. The 420 MW project was commissioned during Q4 FY25, three quarters late, and impacted Q4 FY25 PBT by \~₹35 cr during stabilization.
25. AMGEN replacement - \~800 MW coal unit conditional on central coal approval Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management stated a conditional plan to set up close to an 800 MW unit to replace the AMGEN power project once the central government approves coal allocation, with the state government having approved and applied to the centre. No further disclosure on central approval or project initiation is in our record.
26. FY27 renewable capex - \~₹10,000 cr On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided total capex of approximately ₹10,000 cr for all RE projects in FY27. Q1 FY27 RE capex was ₹1,550 cr, a run-rate consistent with the annual target, against cumulative RE capex of ₹8,800 cr up to 30 June 2026.
27. Nabha Power acquisition - EBITDA \~₹1,000 cr per year Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management confirmed that on a steady-state, cash-flow/adjusted-EBITDA basis, Nabha Power should generate around ₹1,000 cr of EBITDA per year. The plant was acquired on 25 June 2026 and contributed ₹15 cr in Q1 FY27 from \~5 days of operation at \~85% PLF; a rating note cites ₹750-800 cr annual EBITDA.
28. 10 GW renewable capacity aspiration On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management reiterated its aspiration to reach 10 GW of renewable capacity, and the FY26 annual report states the aim as 10 GW by 2030. Interim targets moved from \~5.95 GWp to \~6.25 GWp; as of 30 June 2026, operational renewables were \~2.1 GW with 4.6 GW under implementation.
29. SMK distribution franchise - breakeven in FY27 On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management confirmed SMK (the Dakshin Gujarat/Surat-Kutch licensed distribution area) is expected to reach breakeven in FY27, with AT&C losses then at \~20% and near breakeven. Q1 FY27 SMK T&D loss was 24.6% versus 25.9% in Q1 FY26, with no explicit breakeven disclosure for FY27 yet.
30. FY27 renewable capacity addition - 1.2-1.5 GW On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management expected to commission about 1.2-1.5 GW of RE capacity in FY27 at DC level, with similar pace the year thereafter; at Q1 FY27 this was refined to \~1.2 GW in FY27, \~400 MW by Q2 FY27 and balance \~800 MW in H2 FY27. 70 MW was commissioned during Q1 FY27 with 4.6 GW under implementation.
31. MP coal plant (1.6 GW) - first unit 66 months, second 72 months from PPA On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided first unit commissioning \~66 months and second unit \~72 months from the PPA date, with the PPA then expected "in next 2 months' time". The PSA was executed with MPPMCL and the PPA enacted; BTG and Balance of Plant are awarded, environment clearance received and ₹450 cr capex incurred as of 30 June 2026.
32. MERC parallel licensing - reserved order expected in days Pending - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected the MERC parallel licensing reserved order (Pune, Nagpur - all three areas) to be announced "in a couple of days" following the public hearing held 5 August 2025. By Q3 FY26 there was no further update, and no order is disclosed in our record.
33. FY26 renewable capacity addition - \~331.5 MWp delivered vs 500-600 MW target Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided 500-700 MW of RE capacity coming in during FY26, refined at Q2 FY26 to \~500-600 MW for the full year. Only 310.8 MWp MSEDCL plus 20.7 MWp C&I solar was commissioned by 31.03.2026, with the remaining MSEDCL capacity still pending under SCOD extensions as of the Q4 FY26 deck.
34. UP distribution privatization - participation in tenders Pending - At the Q4 FY25 call, management noted 5-6 UP circles being tendered and expected allocation to be distributed among private players, and at Q1 FY26 said it was "definitely interested in participating in the tenders as and when it comes". At Q1 FY27, management expects UP franchisee opportunities only post-UP election, with nothing concrete and no tender participation disclosed.
35. 2 GW pumped storage project - 4-5 years, major capex in FY26-FY28 On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management described the 2 GW pumped storage project as a "4-5 years project" with major capex in FY26-FY28 and a 48-month commissioning clock from PPA signing, later revised to 3 GW at ₹14,000 cr with SCOD October 2028 per the MSEDCL agreement. As of 30 June 2026, ₹1,130 cr was incurred with major package LOAs awarded and clearances received.
36. Merchant capacity doubling - \~200 to \~400 MW Pending - At the Q4 FY25 call, management planned to build merchant capacity, doubling from \~200 to \~400 MW through added wind targeting non-solar-hour prices, with no further merchant additions planned "at this moment". Subsequently, merchant wind capacity shifted to the SECI XVIII tender at ₹3.97/unit and a Merchant RE pipeline of 603 MWp is being commissioned progressively FY27-FY28, with no disclosure confirming the \~400 MW operational target.
37. Solapur transmission project - commissioned FY26 Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided the Solapur transmission project (\~₹470 cr) to be commissioned in FY26, later pushed to H1 FY27 at a revised cost of ₹500 cr and expected in FY27 at the Q1 FY27 call. As of 30 June 2026, cumulative capex of ₹330 cr was incurred with the project under implementation.
38. Khavda transmission project - commissioned FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided the Khavda transmission project (\~₹800 cr, within balance capex of ₹900-1,000 cr across both transmission projects) to be commissioned in FY26. The project was successfully commissioned in February 2026 at a cost of \~₹600 cr, within the FY26 deadline.
39. FY26 renewable capex - ₹7,000-8,000 cr Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided FY26 renewable capex of around ₹7,000-8,000 cr, with a "slightly higher number" for FY27; at Q3 FY26 it declined to give a target but said a similar run-rate to Q3 would continue. Disclosed run-rates were \~₹2,500 cr in H1 FY26 and \~₹3,100 cr for nine months; with FY26 now ended, no full-year renewable capex figure is in our record, and the disclosed pace falls well short of the guided range.
40. FY26 distribution capex - ₹2,000 cr target, \~₹1,450-1,500 cr likely incurred Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 distribution capex of ₹2,000 cr (₹1,750 cr licensed, \~₹250 cr franchisee). Nine-month FY26 spend was \~₹1,100 cr for licensed and franchisee distribution combined, with management guiding a similar pace onward; with FY26 now closed, no full-year figure is disclosed in our record, but the run-rate implies a shortfall versus the ₹2,000 cr target.