Transrail Lighting Ltd Guidance Report - SOIC x StockScans Report

as of Sep 2026

  1. QIP / eligible securities raise - up to ₹600 crore Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, the Board approved raising up to ₹600 crore through a qualified institutional placement or other eligible securities, subject to shareholders' approval, with a plan to be shared "in the next call" and a 1-2 year utilization horizon. The Board approved the proposal and extended the General Corporate Funds utilization timeline by one year up to FY 2027; no launch or completion has been disclosed yet.
  2. FY27 order intake - ₹10,000-11,000 crore On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management set FY27 order intake guidance of ₹10,000-11,000 crore, which it was "confident" of achieving, reiterated at Q1 FY27 as ₹10,000 plus crores. Q1 FY27 order intake was about ₹1,000 crore, but management expects a 10%-15% win rate on \~₹20,000 crore of tenders bid in Q1, fructifying in Q2 and Q3.
  3. FY27 revenue growth - 20%-22% (maintained at 20%+) On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27 revenue growth of 20% to 22%, maintained at Q1 FY27 as "20% plus" year-on-year. Q1 FY27 revenue grew 5% YoY to ₹1,736 crore; management maintained the guidance and implied a ₹2,200-2,300 crore quarterly run-rate for the rest of FY27.
  4. FY27 EBITDA margin - around 11% On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27 EBITDA margin around 11%, a downward reset versus last year's 11.5%-12% guidance, citing geopolitical, Gulf and global cost escalations; at Q1 FY27 it maintained "around 11% plus". Q1 FY27 EBITDA margin was 11.7%, more than the 11% guidance given at the start of the year.
  5. Net debt to EBITDA - normalize to 0.33 by year end FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said net debt to EBITDA will normalize in Q2 and adjust "in March for sure", confirming it should be back at 0.33 by year end as its "stated direction". The ratio was 0.67x at Q1 FY27, up from 0.33x at FY26, attributed to delayed collections and working capital deployed.
  6. Working capital days - sub-80 / sub-81 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management targeted working capital days going sub-80 from 81 days in FY26, down from 91 in FY25; at Q1 FY27 it guided to the same level or better, i.e., sub-81. Working capital days were 85 at Q1 FY27, up from 81 in FY26; management reaffirmed the direction toward March.
  7. Burberry related-party loan - repayment by September 2026 On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management said the \~₹80 crore Burberry related-party loan at 12% interest would be collected by September 2026, with part in Q4 FY26; this was reaffirmed at Q3 FY26 and again at Q1 FY27 as repayment "by September 30th" per the agreement. ₹30 crore was recovered in March last year, the loan has been on the books for 3 years and interest is being charged, but no final repayment has been disclosed yet.
  8. Three-year growth plan - 20%-25% CAGR "at a trot" On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management stated a three-year growth plan of 20% to 25% "at a trot" with the three-year vision exercise complete, alongside a \~11% steady-state EBITDA margin achievable in one to two years. FY27, the plan's first year, carries 20%-22% revenue growth and \~11% EBITDA margin guidance.
  9. ROCE - maintain 25% On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management targeted maintaining ROCE at 25%, described as one of the best in the industry after consistently over 24% over the last three years. ROCE was 25.79% in FY26 and 23.58% in Q1 FY27; no specific FY27 ROCE target beyond the 25% maintenance goal has been given.
  10. Additional capex - ₹203 crore for construction equipment, 70% in FY27 Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, the Board approved additional capex of ₹203 crore for construction equipment and old machinery, distinct from the original capacity targets; at Q1 FY27 management guided \~70-odd percent utilized in FY27 and the balance in FY28, spent staggered quarter-on-quarter. The Board approval was disclosed on 26 May 2026; no utilization has been reported yet.
  11. Dividend - 100% (₹2 per share) for FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, the Board recommended a dividend of 100% on equity share capital, i.e., ₹2 per equity share, for FY ended 31 March 2026. The ₹2 per share recommendation was disclosed in the Q4 FY26 PPT and announcements, and the Board also declared an interim dividend of ₹3 per share (150%) for FY26-27 in Q1 FY27.
  12. FY26 order intake - ₹9,500-10,000 crore Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected FY26 order inflow "around 9,500 crores", guided to ₹9,000-10,000 crore at Q2 FY26 and to ₹9,500-10,000 crore at Q3 FY26. FY26 order intake was ₹8,520 crore; management acknowledged "we slightly missed" it, attributing some orders being postponed to Q1 as bid results had not opened.
  13. Bangladesh order book reduction - to \~10% by end of next year, project finished by June-July 2026 Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management said the \~20% Bangladesh order book share would reduce to almost 10% by end of next year with no new bidding; revisions took the finish date to June-July 2026, with \~₹300 crore of book left as of Q1 FY27. Bangladesh exposure was 3%-4% of the order book at FY26-end, with Phase 1 of the river-crossing line completed in FY26 and only ₹300 crore left of ₹4,500 crore.
  14. FY26 revenue growth - 25% (later raised to 27%, delivered 30%) Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided FY26 revenue at another 25% growth on FY25; the guidance was restated as 23%-25% at Q4 FY25, maintained through Q2 FY26, raised to 27% at Q3 FY26, and delivered at 30% per management's own scorekeeping at Q4 FY26. FY26 revenue was ₹6,880 crore, up 30% YoY.
  15. Business mix - 85% T&D / 15% civil, railways, poles Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management planned a mix of 85% T&D and a "healthy mix" 15% of civil, railways and poles going forward, and at Q2 FY26 reaffirmed focus of 88-90% on T&D. The FY25 mix was 92% T&D, FY26 was \~90% T&D, and Q1 FY27 order book was 92% Power T&D, 5% Civil, 2% Railways, 1% Pole & Lighting.
  16. Solar EPC - international only Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management stated the solar EPC strategy is international jobs only in Africa and the Caribbean, "principally, we don't want to work in India"; at Q1 FY26 the team built over the prior year was bidding mostly overseas. The first international solar EPC order - 80 MW DC ground-mount with associated substation - was received during Q3 FY25, with no further orders disclosed since.
  17. QIP-adjacent capex plan - see ₹203 crore; order book mix 60-40 (order mix 50-50) Partial - At the Q3 FY25 call, management expected the order mix to be 50-50 domestic-international going forward; at Q1 FY26 revenue mix was guided "close to 50-50" with a 60-40 order book, and at Q2 FY26 the mix was expected to shift to 55%-45% next year. FY26 order inflow was 63% domestic / 37% international with a 61/39 order book, though FY26 revenue was \~50-50; Q1 FY27 revenue was \~65% domestic and order book 59/41.
  18. Market share with Power Grid - 8%-10% Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management intended to achieve a market share of around 8% to 10% with Power Grid this year. Market share with Power Grid was around 8% to 10% as of Q4 FY25; at Q3 FY26 management noted Power Grid CAPEX of ₹28,000 crore this year with ₹32,000 crore talked about for FY27, and Transrail doing 20+ jobs with Power Grid.
  19. Capex programme - ₹327 crore Phase 1 (brownfield + new tower plant) in 18-24 months Partial - At the Q3 FY25 call, the Board approved ₹327 crore of capex in 18-24 months, targeting towers from 84,000 to 196,000 MT and conductors from 24,000 to 49,500 km; revisions pushed completion to end of H1 FY27, with conductor expansion guided to Q1 FY27 then Q2-Q3 FY27. Tower capacity doubled to 172,400 MTPA in FY26 with the Butibori factory commissioned in April 2026, but short of the 196,000 MTPA target, and conductor Phase 1 brownfield was not yet complete as of the August 2026 update.
  20. Interest cost - 3.5%-3.6% of turnover for FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected FY26 interest cost in the range of 3.5% to 3.6% of total turnover, versus ₹197 crore paid in FY25. Interest cost as a percentage of revenue improved to 3.3% for 9M FY26 from 4.1% last year; FY26 finance cost was \~₹210 crore with the finance-cost-to-operating-revenue ratio improving 55 bps.
  21. PAT margin - 5.9%-6% going forward Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided PAT margin in the "range of 5.9% to 6%" going forward, including FY26, against a 12-12.5% EBITDA margin. PAT margin was 6.10% in FY25, 6.1% in FY26 and 6.2% in Q1 FY27, meeting or slightly exceeding the range in every reported period since.
  22. EBITDA margin - 12.5% plus / 12%-12.5% medium term Partial - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided EBITDA margin of "12.5% plus" and "in the range of 12%, 12.5%" as sustainable in the medium term; revisions stepped FY26 guidance down to 12%-12.25%, then 11.5%-12%, and reset FY27 to around 11%. FY25 EBITDA margin was 12.73%, FY26 was 11.91% and Q1 FY27 was 11.7%, above the reset \~11% guidance.
  23. FY25 revenue growth - 30% over FY24 Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management reiterated FY25 revenue growth guidance of 30% over FY24, with FY24 revenue stated as ₹4,100 crore, saying "that guidance we continue to maintain". FY25 revenue was ₹5,307.75 crore, up 30.20% over FY24; management noted "we met our revenue guidance, we surpassed our margin projections" for FY25.