1. IMIL - reasonable and substantial growth in FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management anticipated reasonable and substantial growth in the IMIL business in the current fiscal year. FY26 IMIL sales reached 58.9 lakh cases vs 55.7 lakh in FY25, up 5.7%, with the Q4 FY26 PPT calling Triveni the fastest-growing IMIL company in UP at a >27% five-year CAGR.
2. Water business - profitability fairly stable in FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected Water business profitability to remain fairly stable based on orders in hand, with reasonable orders during the year. FY26 Water PBIT came in at ₹31.0 crore, down 5.5%, and in Q1 FY27 water revenue declined 21% YoY with PBIT at ₹2 crores.
3. Sugar margin - no erosion in FY26 Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected no margin erosion in sugar, with new-season sugar selling at a higher rate of margin going forward. In Q1 FY26 the sugar segment profit declined 80% to ₹7.6 crore on higher cost of production, but FY26 sugar PBIT closed at ₹272 crore, up 2.1%.
4. Sugar production - double-digit increase through SS 2023-24 Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management reaffirmed that sugar production would increase by a double-digit 10-11% and "continue through the course of the season". SS 2023-24 sugarcane crush came in at 0.83 crore tonnes, 11% lower vs SS 2022-23, per the Q4 FY24 call.
5. Europe water project - Letter of Award in near future Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management expected the ₹250 crore Europe water project Letter of Award "in the next few days itself", and at Q2 FY25 still "in the near future". Q4 FY25 recorded Water order booking of ₹586 crore including a LoA recently revoked for administrative reasons and being pursued, with no Europe LoA confirmation in the record.
6. Cost of funds - decline over next few quarters Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected a decline in cost of funds over the next few quarters. Cost of funds fell to 6.4% in Q2 FY26 and 6.1% in Q3 FY26, with Q1 FY27 showing a 70 bps YoY reduction to 6.8%.
7. PTB - robust double-digit growth in FY26 Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management reiterated guidance of robust double-digit growth in order booking, turnover and profitability for the Power Transmission Business in FY26. FY26 PTB revenue was ₹340 crore (-8.1%), PBIT ₹120 crore (-5.0%) and order booking ₹467 crore (-1.7%).
8. 100% capacity utilisation in ethanol - FY26 Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management anticipated functioning at 100% capacity utilization in ethanol this year. Q4 FY26 reported the distillery segment's highest-ever production and sales volume in FY26, with alcohol production of 2,36,510 KL, up 18.2%.
9. Sugar cost of production - maintained at last year's level Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management stated that if recoveries converged to last year's level, average cost of production would be maintained, moving toward ₹32.7. Sugar inventory at 31 March 2023 was valued at ₹33.7 per kilo and at 30 June 2023 at ₹33.6 per kilo, broadly maintained.
10. Sugar recovery SS 2022-23 - 20-21 bps lower YoY Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management expected gross recovery for sugar season 2022 to be \~20-21 basis points lower year-on-year. Gross recovery closed at 11.47% vs 11.70% the previous season, 23 bps lower.
11. IMIL breakeven - beyond H1 FY23 Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said of IMIL "when we go beyond H1, we will be absolutely fine. And we will be in black". The business became reasonably profitable by Q2 FY25, among the top five producers in UP, with FY25 dispatches of over 55 lakh cases, up 24.5%.
12. Maize margins - substantially higher in FY25 Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected FY25 maize margins to be "substantially higher" than the previous year on an anticipated 20% higher maize crop. Maize prices came in at \~₹25-₹26/kg against a hoped-for ₹22-₹23/kg, and the Q4 FY25 call cited UP landed prices of \~₹23/kg vs ₹24.42 the previous fiscal.
13. Defence order booking - increased bookings over next few quarters Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management expected increased Defence order bookings across propulsion gas turbines, gearboxes, shafting and special application pumps "hopefully over the next couple of quarters", reiterated post-elections at Q4 FY24. Q3 FY25 brought a second order for 42 propulsion gearboxes from Mazagon Dock with 23% booking growth, further gearbox orders in Q1 FY26 and a landmark axial compressor test gearbox order in Q4 FY26.
14. Power Transmission - double-digit growth with \~35% EBITDA / 30% PBT margins Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said the Power Transmission business's "excellent double-digit rates of growth" would continue without sacrificing the \~35% EBITDA / 30% PBT margins maintained over the last 15-20 quarters. FY24 revenue grew 30% at a 36.7% PBIT margin, FY25 grew 26.8% at 34.3%, but FY26 revenue fell 8.1% with the margin at 35.4%.
15. Water business - long-term sustainable EBITDA margins north of 10% Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management stated the Water business's long-term sustainable EBITDA margins would be north of 10%, double-digit PBIT margins. Water PBIT margins have held above 10% since: 12.8% in FY24, 13.99% in FY25 and 11.54% in FY26.
16. Power Transmission order booking - robust growth in FY23 and FY24 Partial - The Q1 FY23 PPT stated Power Transmission order booking grew 41.5% year-on-year, a trend "expected to continue and support strong revenue growth in FY23 and FY24". FY23 order booking rose just 5%, while FY24 came in at ₹375 crore, up 42.3%.
17. FY26 dividend - ₹1.25 per share final Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, the Board recommended a final dividend of 125% / ₹1.25 per equity share, subject to shareholder approval, taking the total FY26 dividend to ₹2.75 per share. The Q4 FY26 PPT records the ₹2.75 per share total with a 23% payout.
18. FY25 dividend - ₹2.50 per share Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, the Board recommended a final dividend of 250% for FY24-25, subject to shareholder approval at the AGM. The Q4 FY25 PPT confirmed the ₹2.50 per equity share dividend for FY25.
19. FY23 dividend - ₹3.25 per share Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, the Board recommended a final dividend of ₹3.25 per share (325%) for FY23, confirmed in the Q4 FY23 PPT. The PPT recorded the ₹3.25 per equity share proposal as subject to shareholders' approval.
20. Power Transmission margins - sustain \~35% PBIT Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, the CFO guided "we have been maintaining about 35% PBIT. I think the same trend is expected to continue in future also", after stating at Q2 FY26 that margins would normalize but "certainly not 500 basis points". FY26 Power Transmission PBIT margin was 35.4%, with Q4 FY26 at 34%.
21. IMFL bottling facility - production by end of Q1 FY25 Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management said the IMFL bottling facility at Muzaffarnagar, at a total capital cost of \~₹25 crore, would be ready for production by end of Q1 FY25, subject to statutory clearances. The IMFL business commenced operations in July 2024 with the launch of THE CRAFTERS STAMP and MATSYA brands in Uttar Pradesh.
22. IMIL capacity expansion - ₹20 crore capex Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, the Board approved capex of approximately ₹20 crore for enhancement of IMIL production capacity. Following FY25 capex announcements, IMIL capacity was enhanced to 7.5 lac cases per month / 90 lac cases per annum, confirmed in the Q4 FY25 and Q1 FY26 PPTs.
23. Short-term borrowings - reduce to almost zero by September-October 2026 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided that short-term borrowings would "very rapidly start decreasing" from April onwards, "so that by September or October or so, it would almost be at zero level". Standalone gross debt fell to ₹1,238 crores as on 30 June 2026 vs ₹1,603 crores a year earlier, though working capital borrowings of ₹862 crore remain.
24. FY26 sugar realisation - ₹40.5-41 per kg Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected average sugar realisation fractionally higher than ₹40.5, \~₹2 higher year-on-year, with ₹40.5-₹41 for FY26 framed as safe to assume. FY26 average realisation at Triveni was ₹41.32 for all sugars, with the PPT confirming ₹40,679/MT, up 3.8%.
25. FY26 sugar production - 10-15% increase Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management affirmed a 10% or 15% year-on-year increase in sugar production for FY26 as "not an unfair assumption", reiterated at Q2 FY26 as a substantial increase across all 8 factories. FY26 net sugar production was \~913,000 tonnes, nearly flat YoY, vs 92 lakh quintals the previous season.
26. Co-0238 variety reduction - below 25% On track - At Q3 FY25 management committed to cutting the 0238 cane variety from 50-55% "to approximately 30-35% for the next season", at Q4 FY25 to below 40%, and at Q1 FY26 confirmed the plan to bring it below 25% with a wellness programme for the remainder. Exposure fell from close to 55% to just under 40% by Q2 FY26, with red-rot-affected areas fully controlled in planting; below 25% is not yet confirmed.
27. TPTL listing - by end of August 2026 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management anticipated TPTL listing "by the end of August" 2026, and at Q1 FY27 expected completion in approximately four to six weeks subject to regulatory approvals. The record date for share allotment was 22 July 2026 with allotment completed 29 July 2026 and the listing application to be submitted that week; no listing confirmation is in the record as of 1 September 2026.
28. SSEL amalgamation and PTB demerger - complete by Q4 FY26 Partial - At Q3 FY25 management announced the Composite Scheme of Arrangement - SSEL amalgamation plus PTB demerger to TPTL - with reiterations through Q2 FY26 and Q3 FY26 of a Q4 FY26 culmination. The scheme instead became effective 19 May 2026, with the demerger effective 1 April 2026 and share allotment completed 29 July 2026 - past the stated horizon, with listing still pending.
29. Gears capacity expansion - ₹700 crore by September 2026 On track - At the Q3 FY25 call, management announced incremental capex of ₹60 crore to "take the gears capacity to ₹700 crore by September 2026" from ₹400 crore, with the Q4 FY26 call fixing the approved capex at exactly ₹340 crore to be complete by September 2026. Of the ₹340 crore, ₹231 crore was incurred up to 31 March 2026 with \~₹109 crore due in Q1-Q2 FY27.
30. FY26 alcohol production - \~25 crore litres Delivered - At Q1 FY25 management guided FY26 alcohol production "close to about 25 crore litres", refined at Q3 FY25 to 25 crore litres including 22.5-23 crore litres of ethanol, and at Q4 FY25 to 23-24 crore litres with upside to 27-plus crore litres on juice substitution. FY26 alcohol production was 2,36,510 KL (23.65 crore litres), up 18.2% YoY, within the revised range.
31. FY25 alcohol production - 21-21.5 crore litres Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 total alcohol volumes to approximately 21-21.5 crore litres with estimates unchanged, reiterated at Q1 FY25 as "in excess of 21 crore litres" and at Q2 FY25 as \~21 crore litres with ±5% tolerance. FY25 alcohol production was over 20 crore litres, in line with previous quarters' projections.
32. Sugar business capex ₹90 crore - complete by Q3 FY24 Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, the Board approved capex of ₹90 crore for the Sugar business - process change at Milak Narayanpur towards refined sugar plus modernization and debottlenecking - expected complete by Q3 of FY2024. At Q1 FY24 the modernization and debottlenecking activities were "all underway", within a ₹305 crore Sugar capex program across six Board meetings; no completion confirmation for the ₹90 crore scope by Q3 FY24 is in the record.
33. Defence facility at Mysore - commissioned by early 2024 Partial - The FY23 Annual Report planned the new multi-modal Defence facility at Mysuru to be commissioned by early 2024, with Q3 FY23 guidance of commissioning during FY24 and Q1 FY24 pointing to around July 2024 for the ₹40 crore investment. After successive delays through FY25 and FY26, the facility was commissioned in December 2025 as finally planned, with key machinery fully launched in Q4 FY26 and the testing facility to follow over the next couple of quarters.
34. Power Transmission capacity - ₹250 crore to ₹400 crore by March 2024 Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, the Board approved capex of ₹100 crore to enhance Power Transmission capacity from \~₹250 crore to ₹400 crore, expected complete by March 2024. Completion was rescheduled at Q3 FY24 to December 2024, advanced at Q1 FY25 to November 2024, then staggered to September 2026 at Q4 FY25 with the Mysore capex largely committed.
35. Sugar crush SS 2022-23 - 9-10% higher Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management reiterated sugar crush would be higher by 9-10% in SS 2022-23, after stating at Q2 FY23 that total crush would be "a record number". The season closed with the highest-ever crush of 0.93 crore tonnes, up 11% YoY, confirmed at 10.8% higher in Q1 FY24.
36. Sugar export quota - dispatch entire \~205,000 MT in FY23 Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management committed to dispatching the entire export quota of just under 205,000 MT during the current financial year. FY23 sugar exports were 190,337 tonnes out of a 204,868 tonne quota, with the remaining \~15,000 tonnes booked in April FY24.
37. ₹800 crore buyback - complete by January 2023 Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, the buyback of up to \~2.28-2.29 crore equity shares at ₹350 per share, aggregating not exceeding ₹800 crore, was approved with "Timeframe is immediate" and completion hoped by January, roughly 10 weeks. The ₹800 crore was completed in February-March 2023, per the Q4 FY23 call and PPT.
38. Triveni Turbine stake divestment - conclude transaction Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, the promoter inter-se transfer of Triveni Turbine shares was confirmed as a "binding contract" at a floor price of ₹171 with an outer limit of 31 March 2023, and at Q1 FY23 management hoped to conclude the \~21.85% stake divestment early. The company divested its entire 21.85% stake for net consideration of ₹1,593 crore during FY23.
39. FY25 alcohol production - 28-32 crore litres Missed - At Q1 FY23 management guided post-new-capacity annualized volumes "somewhere in excess of about 32 crore liters" for FY25, at Q2 FY23 to 31-32 crore litres from 1,110 KLPD capacity, and at Q4 FY23 to "somewhere between 28 to 32 crore liters". FY25 alcohol production was just over 20 crore litres, with the Sabitgarh distillery expansion kept in abeyance reducing available capacity.
40. 450 KLPD dual-feedstock distillery expansion - commercial production Q3 FY24 Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, the Board approved a 450 KLPD dual-feedstock distillery expansion at Rani Nangal and Sabitgarh for approximately ₹460 crore, taking total capacity to 1,110 KLPD, with commercial production expected in Q3 FY24. Rani Nangal was commissioned at the onset of Q1 FY25 at full capacity after slipping to Q4 FY24 guidance, while Sabitgarh was kept in abeyance pending ethanol pricing.
41. FY24 ethanol production - 21-22 crore litres Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided "22 crore liters definitely in FY24", raised at Q1 FY23 to about 25 crore litres with new additions, restated at Q2/Q3 FY23 to just over 21 crore litres from existing assets, and at Q4 FY23 to "well higher than 21 crore liters". FY24 alcohol production was approximately 18.5 crore litres, "very much in line" with the last earnings call.
42. FY23 ethanol production - 18 crore litres Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management reiterated Board Meeting guidance of \~18 crore liters of ethanol production in FY23, reaffirmed at Q1 FY23 as "above 18 crore litres" and at Q2 FY23 as "definitely 18 crore litres". FY23 alcohol production was 18.12 crore liters, up 68% YoY, "a little bit more than what we had forecast".
43. Power Transmission ₹80 crore capex - complete by March 2023 Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided the Power Transmission ₹80 crore capex for the new factory at Mysore to be complete by March 2023. The Q4 FY23 call stated the ₹80 crore capex was incurred last year, but the FY23 Annual Report showed the Mysuru facility planned for commissioning by early 2024, with no completion confirmation for the original scope by March 2023 in the record.
44. Sugar capex ₹130 crore - complete by October 2022 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided the ₹130 crore sugar capex at Khatauli, Deoband and Sabitgarh - including converting Deoband to a refined plant and doubling Sabitgarh pharma plant output - to be complete by October 2022, reiterated at Q1 FY23. At Q2 FY23 the debottlenecking and modernization of the three units was confirmed complete "in a timely manner", with refined sugar capability raised from \~40% to \~60% and pharma-grade capacity doubled.
45. 660 KLPD distillery capacity - by July 2022 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided distillation capacity to reach 660 KLPD by July 2022 via low-capital-cost incidental expansion and debottlenecking, stated as "on track", echoed in the FY22 Annual Report. Commissioning of a 60 KLPD grain-based distillery at Muzaffarnagar plus 40 KLPD enhancements at two existing distilleries raised capacity to 660 KLPD, with management confirming "We have certainly met the target" at Q1 FY23.