1. Ethanol sugar-based share to reduce to 65% in FY27 On track - In an April 2026 rating report, with the grain-based distillery fully commencing in FY27, management indicated the share of sugar-based ethanol is likely to reduce to 65% in FY27 from 80% in FY26. In Q1 FY27, sugar-based volume was 4.37 crore litres versus 3.92 crore litres grain-based - a roughly 50:50 split (\~53% sugar-based) - with management expecting a more grain-heavy mix next quarter; the full-year outcome remains unsettled.
2. Related party transactions up to ₹2,500 crore proposed for approval Pending - At the 8th June 2026 announcement, related party transactions of up to ₹2,500 crores were proposed for approval, a material RPT equal to 144.71% of annual consolidated turnover. No outcome on the approval has been disclosed as of 2nd September 2026.
3. SAF via ATJ-SPK pathway certified under ICAO framework Delivered - At the 15th November 2025 announcement, the SAF plant was to use the Alcohol-to-Jet Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene (ATJ-SPK) pathway, a certified route under the ICAO framework. A technology transfer agreement with Honeywell UOP was signed, and the ATJ pathway can be blended up to 50% with conventional ATF.
4. No further ethanol expansion or capacity addition planned Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management stated that with the current capex program complete, no further expansion or capacity addition was planned across the ethanol business, reiterated in Q1 FY27 with no further ethanol capex planned. No new ethanol capacity expansion has been announced as of 2nd September 2026, with installed capacity at 2,000 KLPD.
5. Four new CBG plants commissioned by July 2026 Missed - At the Q3 FY26 call, four new CBG plants were scheduled to be commissioned by July 2026, restated in Q2 FY26 as four plants of 80 TPD each; in Q4 FY26 the plan was reduced to three plants due to a land legal issue, rescheduled to Q3 and Q4 FY27. No CBG plants were commissioned by July 2026, with three plants at 90-95% civil and 65-70% mechanical progress as of July 2026.
6. CBG capacity to 162.2 TPD across 11 plants by end of FY27 On track - In the Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27 decks, management laid out a phased plan to scale CBG capacity to 162.2 TPD across 11 units - Jamkhandi (10.2 TPD) operational, four Sumitomo JV plants (80 TPD) and six GAIL JV plants (72 TPD) to follow, with commissioning targeted from Q2 FY27 onwards. As of Q1 FY27, Mudhol is 95% complete with commissioning targeted for August 2026, Kedarnath and Badami at 90% civil work (September/December 2026 targets), Daund pre-construction, and GAIL lands identified.
7. Ethanol production capacity of 55-60 crore litres on 300-330 day cycle Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, management stated TruAlt's ethanol production capacity is about 55-60 crore litres on a 300-330 operating day cycle. Installed capacity is 2,000 KLPD, up to 2,100 KLPD on grains and molasses; Q1 FY27 production was \~8.5 crore litres for the quarter, and 2,000 KLPD × 300 days equals 60 crore litres, consistent with the stated capacity.
8. Public OMC allocation of 26 crore litres for FY27 Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management included a 26 crore litre public OMC allocation in the FY27 ethanol target. Q1 FY27 sales were 8.29 crore litres, with 44 crore litres of orders on hand across OMC, private and ENA; no full-year public OMC allocation outcome is yet available.
9. Private OMC allocation of 8 crore litres for FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management included an 8 crore litre private OMC allocation in the FY27 ethanol target. Of the total 8 crore litres, almost 3 crore litres have been sold with another 5 crore litres to be sold; private OMCs are asking for price revision and TruAlt is chasing them to honour POs.
10. ENA sales of 6 crore litres for FY27 Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management targeted 6 crore litres of ENA sales as part of the 55 crore litre FY27 ethanol target, with the 44 crore litres of orders on hand in Q1 FY27 including ENA. Q1 FY27 ENA revenue was ₹37.02 crore with no volume disclosed, against FY26 ENA sales of \~3 crore litres.
11. Ethanol sales run-rate to rise from 2.2 to \~5 crore litres/month Missed - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said that once the 15 crore litre court-ordered volume and private OMC lifting are implemented, the ethanol sales run-rate was expected to rise from 2.2 crore litres/month to about 5 crore litres/month. Q1 FY27 sales were 8.29 crore litres for the quarter, about 2.76 crore litres/month, with the court order and private OMC lifting still pending.
12. Court-ordered 15 crore litres expected implemented by September Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said the additional 15 crore litres allocated through court should be implemented by September, noting OMCs were already in contempt of the 4 February order's three-month deadline. In Q1 FY27, the matter remained open with no timeline given, and the 28th April 2026 filing noted a court appeal to allow the 150mnL shortfall supply in ESY26 under consideration.
13. CBG feedstock - 3x raw material within 20 km radius Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, management stated that wherever CBG plants are located, at least three times the required raw material was secured within a 20 km radius, and in Q1 FY27 that all identified CBG locations have at least 3x within a 30-kilometre radius. All identified CBG locations are confirmed to meet the 3x raw material criterion within 30 km.
14. Retail unit economics of ₹10-12 crore revenue per station, zero capex Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, the CFO guided retail unit economics of \~₹10 crores to ₹12 crores revenue per station with zero capex. FY26 retail revenue was ₹103.51 crore across 7 outlets, implying \~₹14.8 crore per station, above the guided range; Q1 FY27 retail revenue was ₹4.40 crore, implying \~₹2.5 crore annualized per station.
15. Ethanol realization of ₹67 per litre average Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided ethanol realization at ₹67 per litre average, saying it "will be 67 unless we see an increase in the price of offtakes", and in Q1 FY27 expected \~₹67-68. Q3 FY26 average realization was around ₹67, and Q1 FY27 average realization was \~₹67-68.
16. DDGS price to go up to ₹24-25 Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management noted DDGS price was \~₹19.5 for the first lot and expected it to go up to ₹24-25. The DDGS base price was \~₹24/kg in FY26, and Q1 FY27 DDGS revenue was ₹47.34 crore.
17. Blending mandate to increase from 20% to 27% "in a few months" Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management expected the blending mandate to increase from 20% to 27% "in a few months from now". The blending target was increased from 20% to 21% by notification and BIS standards were changed for E22, E27 and E30, but no 27% blending mandate has been announced as of 2nd September 2026.
18. Q3 and Q4 FY26 operating at 80-85%+ capacity utilization Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided Q3 and Q4 FY26 operations at around 80%-85% and above of installed capacity. Q3 FY26 gross utilization was approximately 60%, Q4 FY26 utilization was not explicitly stated, and Q1 FY27 was 60.57%.
19. Ethanol volumes of 26 to 28 crore litres for Q3+Q4 FY26 Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided Q3 and Q4 FY26 combined ethanol volumes of somewhere about 26 to 28 crore litres, with the CFO guiding around 22 crore kilolitres as minimum. Q3 FY26 gross volume was \~7.6 crore litres and Q4 FY26 volume was \~6 crore litres, so combined Q3+Q4 was \~13.6 crore litres, well below the 22-28 crore litre guidance.
20. Ethanol supply year 2026 - 47 crore litres targeted, "done deal" Pending - At the Q2 FY26 call, management targeted close to 48 crore litres for ESY November 2025 to October 2026, with 47 crore litres (34 gov OMC + 4 + 1.8 private OMC + up to 8 crore litres ENA) a "done deal". By Q4 FY26 the company had sold \~24 crore litres plus \~3 crore litres of ENA, but the supply year ends October 2026 and had not closed as of 2 September 2026, so the outcome is not yet settled.
21. Ethanol operating days to increase from \~140 to \~330 annually On track - At the 19th October 2025 announcement, once dual-feed units at Units I, II and V are commissioned, operational days were expected to increase from around 140 to nearly 330 annually, with the 12th November 2025 announcement targeting closer to 330 days versus \~140, raising uptime by 114 to 136%. Q3 FY26 had approximately 58 effective operating days due to late crushing and farmer protests; Q1 FY27 was the first full operational quarter post-integration with three of five plants at maximum capacity, and no full-year operating days figure is yet disclosed.
22. Ethanol dual-feed integration of 1,300 KLPD of 2,000 KLPD Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided that 1,300 KLPD of dual-feed capacity was integrated out of 2,000 KLPD total installed capacity, shifting ethanol earnings from seasonal to year-round. Integration was completed across 1,300 KLPD covering three of five units; Unit 5 received Consent to Operate on December 17, 2025, after which all ethanol plants were fully operational, with the 450 KLPD grain-based project at Unit 2 commissioned 28 February 2026 and 300 KLPD at Unit 4 commissioned 26 January 2026.
23. GAIL equity infusion for 49% stake in Leafiniti by February 2026 Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, equity infusion from GAIL into the second CBG JV was scheduled to happen within February 2026. GAIL infused ₹13 crore in March 2026 and, as of March 2026, holds 49% in Leafiniti.
24. Sumitomo equity infusion for 49% stake in TruAlt Gas by end of 1HFY27 Delivered - At the 28th April 2026 filing, Sumitomo was likely to acquire a 49% stake in TGPL by end-1HFY27. Sumitomo Corporation completed its equity infusion as of April 2026 and is now a 49% JV partner in TruAlt Gas, with the share purchase transaction completed.
25. PM JI-VAN viability gap funding of ₹150 crore for SAF Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management expected \~₹150 crores of Viability Gap Funding under the PM JI-VAN scheme at an advanced stage, reiterated in Q4 FY26 as ₹150 crores to come once the plant is commissioned. A ₹150 crore grant was sanctioned under the PM JI-VAN Yojana, expected to incentivise \~7-10% of project capex.
26. IPO proceeds of ₹150.68 crore for Unit 4 multi-feed capex by Fiscal 2026 Delivered - The offer document target was to utilise ₹150.68 crore by Fiscal 2026 for capex to set up multi-feed stock operations at ethanol plant TBL Unit 4 of 300 KLPD capacity. ₹140.14 crore was utilised as at end of fiscal 2026, a delay attributed to proforma invoices from vendors, with projects achieving DCCO; Unit 4 (300 KLPD) was commissioned on 26 January 2026.
27. CBG run-rate of ₹10-12 crore per quarter for FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management expected a CBG run-rate for FY27 of ₹10-12 crores quarter-on-quarter, saying "It should be in a similar range itself". Q1 FY27 CBG revenue was ₹11.31 crore, within the guided range.
28. SAF realization of ₹180-190 per litre with 24-25% margin Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management expected a SAF sale price of about ₹180 to ₹190 a litre as off-take price with a margin profile of around 24% to 25%, having earlier cited ₹180 to ₹200 a litre in Q3 FY26. No SAF plant is operational yet and no offtake contract is signed, with the project in FEED stage.
29. Ethanol supply year FY28 - at least 44 crore litres Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, for the next ethanol supply year after September-October bidding, management was "hopeful that we should be able to do at least 44 crores litres in the year to come". No ESY28 allocation outcome is yet available as of 2nd September 2026, though 44 crore litres of orders are on hand for the current year.
30. De-leveraging plan to be announced in next call or few days Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said that on de-leveraging plans, "hopefully in the next call or maybe in the next few days we'll be able to give a plan for it", reiterating "maybe in the few days you'll get to see that". No de-leveraging plan has been disclosed as of 2nd September 2026; Debt/Equity was 0.59 as of Q1 FY27 against reported financials' Debt of ₹1,652 crore and D/E of 1.09.
31. Q2 FY27 ethanol sales of 11 to 12 crore litres Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided Q2 FY27 sales of close to about 11 to 12 crore litres of ethanol. No Q2 FY27 outcome is yet available as of 2nd September 2026; Q1 FY27 sales were 8.29 crore litres, with no annual maintenance shutdown planned for Q2 given \~11 crore litres of supplies in hand.
32. GAIL JV - 6 CBG plants commissioned by Q4 FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management targeted six GAIL JV CBG plants with tenders floated early June 2026, construction commissioned by July 2026 and the six plants commissioned by Q4 of FY27, restated in Q1 FY27 with land procurement and construction beginning "hopefully in the month of August onwards" for \~72 tons per day, revenues from Q1 next FY. GAIL infused equity in March 2026 and holds 49% in Leafiniti; lands for six units (72 TPD) were jointly identified in Karnataka and Maharashtra, but construction had not yet commenced as of the Q1 FY27 PPT and no plants are commissioned.
33. Revenue mix FY27 - \~85% ethanol, \~15% CBG On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided the next financial year revenue mix at \~85% ethanol and \~15% CBG. Q1 FY27 segmental revenue was ethanol ₹615.7 crores and CBG ₹11.2 crores, putting the CBG share at \~1.8%, with no FY27 full-year outcome yet and new CBG plants expected to commission in H2 FY27.
34. Ethanol segment EBITDA margin trending at 15-16% Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management expected an ethanol segment EBITDA trend of around 15%-16% aided by integration, raw material access and working capital, and in Q3 FY26 said the ethanol business at peak (5 crore litres × 300 days) would yield 18%-20% EBITDA. FY26 ethanol segment EBITDA margin was 20.08%, Q4 FY26 was 25.76%, and Q1 FY27 was 20.70%.
35. FY26 ethanol volume of 36-37 crore litres Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management revised the FY26 ethanol volume target down from 41 to 36-37 crore litres, reiterated at Q3 FY26. FY26 total tender allocation was 30 crore litres, of which \~24 crore litres were sold, with the CFO separately stating \~26 crore litres for the whole year, so actual supply of \~24-26 crore litres fell below the target.
36. Q4 FY26 capacity utilization of at least 90% to 95% Missed - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided Q4 FY26 capacity utilization of at least about 90% to 95%. In Q4 FY26 all ethanol facilities remained operational with adequate raw material, but offtake was significantly impacted by a sharp reduction in OMC lifting; Q4 utilization was not explicitly stated, though Q1 FY27 was 60.57% and Q4 FY26 ethanol segment revenue of ₹561 crore versus Q1 FY27's ₹626 crore suggests utilization well below 90%.
37. Q4 FY26 EBITDA margin of 20% to 22% Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided Q4 FY26 EBITDA margin of 20% to 22%, "that is what we are trying to achieve". Q4 FY26 consolidated EBITDA margin was 23.70% standalone, with consolidated EBITDA of ₹148.43 crore on total income of ₹626.91 crore, about 23.68%, and the ethanol segment at 25.76%.
38. DDGS revenue of ₹70-80 crore for Q4 FY26 Missed - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided DDGS revenue upwards of about ₹70 crores to ₹80 crores for Q4 FY26, versus \~₹18 crores in Q3; earlier, at Q2 FY26, DDGS was expected to constitute around 17.97% of total income once multi-feed utilization starts. Q4 FY26 DDGS revenue was not separately disclosed, and FY26 DDGS revenue was \~₹28 crores booked in the ethanol segment, against which the ₹70-80 crore quarter target was not achieved; Q1 FY27 DDGS revenue was ₹47.34 crores.
39. CBG margins at scale - EBITDA 60-65%, PAT 30%+ On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, the CFO guided CBG at scale (all 16 plants) to EBITDA margin around 60% to 65% minimum and PAT margin "nothing less than 30%" with IRR around 21% to 22%; at Q4 FY26 initial-year EBITDA guidance was lowered to \~50%, and at Q1 FY27 long-term EBITDA above 60% with PAT margin of 40% to 50% was flagged. CBG segment FY26 delivered EBITDA margin 58.38% and PAT margin 42.13%, Q1 FY27 delivered 55.64% and 38.67%, and 9M FY26 delivered 63% and 43%, with current single-plant operations at 78% utilization.
40. Ethanol monthly production run-rate of 5.5 to 6 crore litres On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided monthly ethanol production of \~5.5 to 6 crore litres on a stabilized platform, a target repeated across the Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27 PPTs and the Q3 FY26 filing, with Q1 FY27 framed as "at least about 5 to 5.5 crore litres" per month at full output. Q1 FY27 production was close to 8.5 crore litres for the quarter, about 2.8 crore litres/month, at \~60% utilization, and Q3 FY26 gross volume was \~7.6 crore litres over 58 operating days, so the run-rate has not yet been demonstrated in any reported quarter.
41. Fuel retail network - 100 outlets Phase 1, 75-80 by calendar 2026 Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided 7 outlets operational and 6 more ready shortly within phase one of a 100-location rollout; at Q3 FY26 the target was at least 75 to 80 dispensing stations "by 31st March", corrected by the CFO to 75 retail outlets for the calendar year, with Q4 FY26 guiding 11 outlets in three months and 76 additional locations short-listed, Q1 FY27 four more "hopefully by the end of this quarter", and the 4th February 2026 announcement targeting 100 stations in Phase I. Construction on the 76 additional outlets was put on hold due to the Middle Eastern crisis; seven outlets were operational as of Q1 FY27 with four under construction, so the 75-80 target appears not achieved, with FY26 retail revenue of ₹103.51 crore and PAT of ₹3.41 crore and Q1 FY27 revenue of ₹4.40 crore and PAT of ₹0.05 crore.
42. CBG expansion - 24 greenfield units over 2-3 years via Sumitomo and GAIL JVs On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management planned to develop 24 greenfield CBG units over the next two to three years through JVs with Sumitomo Corporation and GAIL, with earlier framing of 16 plants signed with Sumitomo and 17 more on a consolidated basis, 10 CBG plants by end FY27 at 162 tons/day, Q1 FY27 CBG capex of \~₹700 crores across the two JVs and additional capacity over the next 24 months. Revisions cut Sumitomo plants from four to three on a land legal issue and set GAIL commissioning by Q4 FY27; Sumitomo's equity infusion completed in April 2026 and GAIL's in March 2026, three Sumitomo plants are at 90-95% civil / 65-70% mechanical as of July 2026, and with one Jamkhandi plant (10.2 TPD) operational since 2021, no additional plants have been commissioned as of 2nd September 2026.
43. Ethanol production target of 55 crore litres for FY27 On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management set an FY27 focus target of 55 crore litres of ethanol production and sale, confirmed at Q4 FY26 with "at least minimum 40 crore litres" as floor, and reframed at Q1 FY27 as "a little higher" than \~40 crore litres with full utilization hopefully in the next ethanol supply year; the FY26 target had been revised down from 41 to 36-37 crore litres, with "at least 44 crores litres" expected for the next ESY. Q1 FY27 sales were 8.29 crore litres, 44 crore litres of orders are on hand, Q2 FY27 is guided at 11-12 crore litres, and the 15 crore litre court-ordered spillover is not included and not yet implemented, with no FY27 full-year outcome yet.
44. SAF plant at Srikakulam - 10 crore litres per annum, commissioned within 24-30 months On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided a SAF plant in Andhra Pradesh with commissioning between August or September 2027 and revenue from FY2028, with Q3 FY26 pointing to commercial production July to October 2027 and Q4 FY26 resetting commissioning to "24 to 30 months... That's FY29", with the Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27 PPTs specifying a 10 crore litres per annum (310 KLPD) facility at Srikakulam, \~₹2,250 crore investment, commissioned within 24 to 30 months subject to approvals and financial closure and revenues "hopefully by end of 2028, that's in FY29"; the MoU with APEDB covers an 80,000 TPA facility with \~₹2,250 crore investment and over 500 direct jobs, with preliminary financing 30:70 debt to equity and capex at Q1 FY27 \~₹2,000 crores starting "in the next two or three months" pending EPC award. A ₹150 crore PM JI-VAN grant has been sanctioned, the project is progressing towards FEED with Honeywell UOP and land identified at Srikakulam, but no ground-breaking or EPC award has been disclosed as of 2nd September 2026.
45. Three Sumitomo/Oceania CBG plants operational by end of Q2 FY27 On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided that the three CBG plants under construction with Sumitomo Corporation and Oceania would be operational by the end of Q2 FY27; the plan was revised from four plants by July 2026 to four by June 2026 in Q3 FY26, then cut to three plants in Q4 FY26 due to a land legal issue, scheduled for Q3 and Q4 FY27 with Mudhol by end Q2 FY27, Kerakalmatti and Badami by end Q3 FY27 and Daund by end Q4 FY27, and targeted in Q1 FY27 "hopefully by quarter 3 of this financial year" with Mudhol August 2026, Kedarnath September 2026 and Badami December 2026. As of the Q1 FY27 PPT (28 July 2026), Mudhol was at 95% civil / 70% mechanical and Kedarnath and Badami at 90% civil / 65% mechanical with major equipment arrived, while Bhima Patas construction had not yet commenced; no commissioning has been disclosed as of 2nd September 2026, with three plants (60 TPD) "nearing commissioning" per the AGM.