TVS Supply Chain Solutions Ltd Q2 FY2026 Concall Summary & Transcript Notes

Source transcript PDF: https://www.stockscans.in/document/zwi39e18eiccsnqsfvpczgvj.pdf

# 1. Financial Performance

## A. Key Figures
   * Consolidated Revenue: ₹5,254.9 Cr H1 FY'26 (+4%) · ₹2,662.6 Cr Q2 FY'26 (+2.7% QoQ, +6% YoY)
   * Adjusted EBITDA: ₹178.5 Cr Q2 FY'26 (6.7% margin) · ₹176.7 Cr Q2 FY'25 (7% margin)
   * PBT: ₹23.3 Cr Q2 FY'26 (+30.8%) · ₹31 Cr H1 FY'26 (+8%)
   * PAT: ₹16.31 Cr Q2 FY'26 (+54%) · ₹87.5 Cr H1 FY'26 (+382%)
   *   **Cash from Operations (post lease):** ₹105 Cr H1 FY'26
   * Net Debt: ₹285.7 Cr as of Sep-25 (from ₹232.2 Cr as of Mar-25)

## B. Revenue Growth
   *   **Resilient Top-Line Momentum:** Consolidated revenue growth sustained across H1 and Q2, driven by **strong performance in the ISCS segment**, particularly in Europe.
   *   **Sequential Improvement:** Q2 revenue up **7% QoQ**, indicating accelerating demand and effective execution despite prior-year high base.
   *   **Segment Leadership:** ISCS remains the primary growth engine, delivering **6% revenue growth in H1**, outpacing overall company performance.

## C. Profitability Trends
   *   **Sharp Earnings Acceleration:** PBT and PAT surged in Q2, with PAT up **54% YoY**, reflecting **operational discipline and structural cost improvements**.
   *   **Margin Expansion:** Adjusted PBT margin improved to **9% in Q2** from **7% YoY**, signaling successful execution of strategic initiatives.
   *   **Sustained Recovery:** Second consecutive profitable quarter confirms **bottom-line turnaround**, with H1 PAT up **344%** on a low prior-year base.
   *   **Management Confidence:** Leadership highlights PBT margins have moved from **2–3% last year to ~10%**, underscoring meaningful operational transformation.

## D. Cash Flow
   *   **High-Quality Earnings:** Strong cash flow generation with **₹105 Cr from operations post lease** in H1, reflecting improved working capital and earnings quality.

## E. Balance Sheet
   *   **Strategic Leverage Increase:** Net debt rose to **₹77 Cr** due to **capex for SCS North America project**, indicating targeted investment in growth infrastructure.

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# 2. Segment Performance

## A. Key Figures
   * ISCS Revenue: ₹1,993.0 Cr (+8.4% YoY, flat QoQ)
   * ISCS EBITDA Margin: 8.7% (+50 bps YoY, +40 bps QoQ)
   * ISCS Adjusted EBITDA: ₹173.8 Cr (vs. ₹150 Cr prior year, ₹164.1 Cr prior quarter)
   * GFS Revenue: ₹669.6 Cr (-0.7% YoY, +9.9% QoQ) · H1 FY26: ₹1,279 Cr (-2% YoY)
   * GFS EBITDA Margin: 2.2% (down from 4.2% YoY, +10 bps QoQ)
   * GFS Adjusted EBITDA: ₹14.7 Cr (vs. ₹28.2 Cr prior year)
   * GFS India Revenue: ₹228.3 Cr (+YoY, +QoQ)

## B. ISCS Performance & Turnaround
   *   **Sharp Margin Recovery:** ISCS delivered dramatic EBITDA margin expansion, reflecting successful execution of **Project One**, cost optimization, and improved performance in Europe and North America.
   *   **Sustained Improvement Ahead:** Margins expected to rise sequentially in H2 driven by **annualized savings of INR100–120 crores** from transformation initiatives.
   *   **New Wins to Fuel Growth:** Recent India-led client wins to boost ISCS revenue starting **Q3**, supporting continued top-line momentum.

## C. GFS Segment Trends & Stabilization
   *   **Volume-Driven Sequential Rebound:** GFS showed early stabilization with higher volumes and improved margins QoQ, despite **persistent pricing pressure** weighing on YoY performance.
   *   **Structural Margin Challenge:** Revenue decline primarily price-led; management remains cautious, targeting **4–5% EBITDA margin recovery** contingent on macro conditions.
   *   **Client Expansion Signals Confidence:** Addition of major global clients across automotive, industrial, and packaging sectors reinforces strategic positioning.

## D. Regional Growth & Strategic Targets
   *   **North America Scaling Ambition:** Management affirmed **$500 million revenue aspiration**, backed by strong pipeline and recent large contract wins; near-term target of **$150–200 million** next year.
   *   **India Outperformance:** GFS India posted strong growth, outpacing global trends and partially offsetting rest-of-world weakness.

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# 3. Order Book & Demand

## A. Key Figures
   * New Business Wins: **₹204 Cr** (8.1% of Q2 FY25 revenue)
   * New Business Growth: **8% YoY**
   *   **Order Pipeline:** **₹6,200 Cr** total · **~₹2,067 Cr** (India ISCS share)
   * New Business Target: ₹300–350 Cr per quarter as suggested by Saumil Shah

## B. New Business Wins
   *   **Diversified Client Expansion:** Wins span global and domestic leaders across building tech, automotive, agriculture, IT services, and energy, reflecting broad-based demand and solution credibility.
   *   **Growth Below Target:** New business growth showed positive momentum but remained below the 10–12% annual target range, indicating room for acceleration.
   *   **Revenue Resilience in India:** Portfolio rebalancing through replacement of low-margin programs with new wins, supported by volume uplift from recent **GST changes**, underpins near-term stability.

## C. Pipeline Value
   *   **Strong Revenue Visibility:** Robust pipeline equates to multiple quarters of forward revenue, with **one-third** concentrated in the high-potential India ISCS segment.
   *   **Growth Trajectory Supported:** Sustained execution toward **₹300–350 Cr** in quarterly new wins is critical to achieving mid-teens revenue growth ambitions.

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# 4. Cost & Efficiency Initiatives

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Project One Savings:** **INR110–120 Cr** annualized · **INR50–60 Cr** in-year
   * Material Costs: INR446.3 Cr Q2 FY'26 (↓ QoQ) · Stable YoY
   * Employee Costs: INR644.4 Cr Q2 FY'26 (↑ YoY, ↑ QoQ) · INR1,263.3 Cr H1 FY'26 (↑ YoY)
   * **Other Expenses:** **INR298.1 Cr** Q2 FY'26 (↑ YoY, ↑ QoQ)
   * Lease-Related Charges: INR95.8 Cr depreciation (↓ YoY) · INR14.6 Cr lease interest (↓ YoY)

## B. Project One Savings
   *   **On-Track Transformation:** Project One in UK and Europe progressing well, with early synergies realized and integration advancing across functions.
   *   **Near-Term Impact:** Cost benefits expected to flow from **Q3 FY'27**, supporting a targeted **4% PBT by Q4 FY'27**.

## C. Cost Discipline
   *   **Favorable Mix Impact:** Freight and handling costs declined YoY due to **business mix shift in ISCS**, despite sequential stability aligned with GFS revenue.
   *   **Cost Volatility:** Material costs fell QoQ on lower volumes; employee costs rose on inflation and new projects; other expenses increased due to **higher rental and maintenance outlays in UK/Europe**.

## D. Lease Optimization
   *   **Lease Restructuring Gains:** Lower depreciation and stable lease interest reflect successful shift toward **shorter-term rental agreements**, optimizing lease liabilities.

## E. Sub-contracting Costs
   *   **Stable Outsourcing Spend:** Sub-contracting expenses normalized QoQ after a spike, remaining broadly stable year-on-year despite fluctuations.

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# 5. Geography & Mix

## A. Key Figures
   *   **B. S. Revenue Share:** **10% to 11%** of total revenue

## B. Europe Performance
   *   **Global Footprint:** Operates across four continents—Asia, Europe, North America, and Oceania—delivering bespoke 3PL and selective 4PL solutions.

## C. India Volume Uptick
   *   **Pre-Tariff Surge:** India GFS saw strong volume growth in Q2 driven by elevated pre-tariff deadline shipments, followed by a sharp normalization post-deadline.
   *   **H2 Growth Confidence:** Business environment in India remains robust, with nearly **one-third** of the company’s deal pipeline originating domestically, including multiple large expected wins.

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# 6. Risks & Macro Factors

## A. Key Figures
   * H1 FY26 Adjusted EBITDA: INR351.8 Cr (–2.8% YoY)

## B. Freight Rate Pressure
   *   **Profitability Under Pressure:** GFS segment profitability declined YoY due to sustained freight rate headwinds, prompting calibrated pricing, cost, and efficiency actions to restore margins.
   *   **Segment-Specific Challenge:** Macroeconomic stress in GFS—not tariffs—is the primary driver of earnings pressure, consistent with industry-wide trends among global forwarding peers.

## C. Pricing Volatility
   *   **Industry-Wide Stress:** Global Forwarding Services face persistent pricing volatility and soft demand across rest-of-world operations, weighing on near-term performance.

## D. Tariff Impacts & Demand Outlook
   *   **Limited Tariff Exposure:** Tariff effects are confined to a negligible portion of India GFS; overall business performance remains unaffected despite short-term volume fluctuations.
   *   **India Business Resilience:** Domestic operations remain healthy with **flattish revenue** (due to exit of low-margin programs) and a **strong pipeline**, while **India export operations** warrant monitoring for potential risks.
   *   **Growth Catalyst on Horizon:** Lower GST rates expected to stimulate consumption, boosting volumes for **FMCD and consumer durable partners**, providing a tailwind to supply chain demand.

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# 7. Guidance & Outlook

## A. Key Figures
   *   **PBT Target:** **INR125 Cr** by FY27 Q4 (from current **INR20–25 Cr**)
   *   **Revenue Growth Guidance:** **Mid-teens** full-year growth across all segments
   *   **PBT Margin Target:** **4%** by FY27 Q4

## B. Profitability Roadmap
   *   **Clear Path to Margin Expansion:** Confidence in achieving 4% PBT by FY27 Q4 underpinned by **cost discipline**, **improving business mix**, and **segment-level operating leverage**, particularly in ISCS.
   *   **Profitability Levers:** Current low PBT reflects structural factors beyond OpEx; targeted savings and operational focus expected to drive **step-change improvement** in earnings quality.

## C. H2 & Forward Momentum
   *   **Sustained Growth Trajectory:** Management expects **4% to 5% QoQ linear growth** in the India business, supported by strong order pipeline conversion and ISCS momentum.
   *   **Segment Focus:** Prioritizing **margin stabilization in GFS** while maintaining **revenue and margin growth in ISCS**, with broader recovery anticipated by fiscal year-end.

## D. Strategic Execution & Expansion
   *   **Organic Growth Commitment:** $500 Mn revenue goal to be achieved organically; no M&A dependency signaled.
   *   **GFS Restructuring Progress:** **Project One** (UK/Europe), **rightsizing**, and **right shoring** on track, expected to deliver previously guided benefits amid cautious macro outlook.