1. Advertising to grow at 9% CAGR till end of 2026 Missed - In the FY24 annual report, advertising was projected to grow at a healthy 9% CAGR over the next 3 years till end of 2026. UFO advertising revenue went from ₹1,220 Mn in FY24 to ₹1,152 Mn in FY25 and ₹1,316 Mn in FY26, a two-year CAGR of about 3.9%.
2. Scrabble Digital and UFO Software amalgamated into UFO Delivered - At the FY25 annual report, an amalgamation scheme was announced for the wholly owned Transferor Companies to merge into UFO, with the Securities Premium Account to be utilised against the P&L debit balance and Amalgamation Deficit Reserve. NCLT approved the scheme on March 18, 2025, effective 31st March 2025 with appointed date April 1, 2024.
3. Restructuring into two SBUs with seven zones each Delivered - At the FY25 annual report, the company announced a restructuring into two SBUs - Digital Cinema Business and Film Exhibition/NOVA EUC - each with seven zones led by a Zonal Business Head acting as Profit Centre Head. The restructuring commenced in Q3 FY25, and the FY25 AR confirms the zonal structure with HR initiatives EDGE, Executive Coaching and FASST launched for it.
4. Nova EUC - a few entertainment and utility centers operational in FY25 Delivered - In the FY24 annual report, NOVA intended to operationalize a few entertainment and utility centers in FY25. Two Nova properties were operational by Q3 FY25, two launched in Uttar Pradesh with three more in pipeline per the FY25 AR, and three screens were operating by Q2 FY26.
5. CINITY tie-up - laboratory in India for Cinity PLF format Pending - At the FY26 annual report, UFO announced an exclusive tie-up with China Film Group to bring Hollywood and Indian films in Cinity PLF format to India "by setting up a laboratory in India". The FY26 AR notes partnerships in Premium Large Screen Formats with HeyLED and CINITY in FY26; no explicit confirmation of the laboratory setup is on record.
6. Buyback or shareholder returns by year-end FY26 Pending - At the Q3 FY26 call, the CFO said buyback at current valuation "would be a better proposition than distributing dividends", and that a smaller buyback of 3-5 crore per quarter "can be one of the strategies", with the form to be decided by the board. No buyback or dividend announcement appears in our record through Q1 FY27.
7. International sale-of-product orders booked by Q2, latest Q3 FY27 Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, the CFO said pending international sale-of-product orders of \~₹7 crore, delayed by the war situation, would be executed and booked "maybe in Q2 and latest by Q3" FY27. The horizon is not yet reached as of 3rd September 2026, with Q2 FY27 in progress.
8. FY26 Capex guidance revised to ₹40-45 crore Pending - At the Q2 FY26 call, management revised FY26 Capex guidance to ₹40 crore to ₹45 crore, from the earlier ₹50-60 crore range, reiterated at Q3 FY26 as "a minimum level 40-45 crores of CapEx is necessary". No actual FY26 capex figure is on record in the cited sources or reported financials (Capex shows "-"), so the outcome remains unstated.
9. Advertising volume back to pre-COVID 5.4 ad minutes in Q3-Q4 FY26 Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management said Q3 and Q4 FY26 should be the turning point where advertising volume returns to pre-COVID FY19 levels of 5.4 ad minutes, with yield to follow. Q4 FY26 minutes sold were 3.81 and FY26 averaged 4.14 vs the FY19 peak of 5.54; Q1 FY27 was 4.15.
10. Advertisement revenue decoupled from content dependence in a couple of quarters Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management said decoupling of advertisement revenue from content dependence "will be another couple of quarters, and then it meaningfully gets decoupled". By Q1 FY27 (33% YoY ad growth), growth was still credited largely to the Dhurandhar spillover, with tactical spend tied to blockbusters and the 30-40% annual-deals mix "expected to continue" - no decoupling is on record.
11. Restructuring benefits from middle of FY26 On track - At the Q3 FY25 call, management said benefits of the organizational-level restructuring will start accruing from the middle of next financial year, FY26. FY26 revenue grew 15% to ₹486.4 crore, EBITDA up 36% to ₹80.3 crore and PAT up 161% to ₹24.9 crore, though no explicit attribution to restructuring is on record.
12. TSR fully integrated in 2-3 quarters, technology in 4-5 months On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, management said the TSR acquisition would take 2-3 quarters for full integration, technology integration around 4-5 months, and that TSR would be in the regular network by Q3. By Q2 FY25, TSR screens were part of the network, with ad share including TSR at 69% vs 85% in Q1 FY25; no contrary signal is on record.
13. Prime/popular screen breakdown by single screens vs multiplexes in presentations Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management committed to include a breakdown of prime/popular screens by single screens vs multiplexes in the investor presentation from next quarter onwards. Q1 FY25 and subsequent presentations include screen splits by Metro/Tier I vs other cities and multiplex vs single screens.
14. FY25 Capex to return to approximately pre-COVID levels of ₹40-50 crore Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, the CFO expected FY25 Capex to return to approximately pre-COVID levels, "ranging between INR 40 crores to INR 50 crores... you can expect us to reach approximately 80% of pre-COVID levels". FY25 CWIP was ₹5.48 crore, far below the guided range, with no explicit full-year capex figure on record.
15. Qube JVs operational within 30-45 days, impact visible in H2 FY24 Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management said the Qube JVs needed statutory approvals and EGM approval on 8th August, with processes "might take around 30 to 45 days" and impact "probably visible in the second half of the year". By Q2 FY24 the JV was not operational due to teething issues, and by Q3 FY24 no collaboration plans were in the pipeline, costs limited to legal and consultancy fees.
16. Sale-of-products revenue at higher levels in next few quarters Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management hoped "in next few quarters" the sale-of-products revenue stream would be at higher levels on Middle East equipment end-of-life replacement expectations. Q1 FY25 grew 84% YoY to ₹26.5 crore, Q3 FY25 product sales grew 54% YoY, and the business was close to ₹100 crore revenues by Q2 FY26.
17. Advertisement revenue sharing to settle at 40% pre-COVID level Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management expected ad revenue sharing to come down to 45-47% and eventually settle at the 40% pre-COVID level, from 66% in H1FY23; at Q1 FY24 they flagged slightly above 30-32% due to minimum guarantees and at Q3 FY24 aimed for 35-38%. Sharing was 48.13% in FY24, 60.85% in FY25, 59.50% in FY26 and 58.68% in Q1 FY27 - never reaching 40%.
18. Scrabble amalgamation - a call by end of 2022 or early 2023 Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said the Scrabble amalgamation plan was on hold and "maybe towards the end of this year or early next year, we will have to take a call" on merging it into UFO. NCLT approval came in January 2024 and the scheme was effective 31st March 2025 with appointed date April 1, 2024, roughly two years after the stated horizon.
19. Zinglin operational around festive period 2022 Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management stated Zinglin will be operational around the festive period, repurposed as a second screen for the core business. By Q2 FY23, Zinglin and Plexigo had no traction, costs were significantly reduced, and the initiative pivoted to white-labelling on the backburner with minimal costs.
20. Nova first center operational by November 2022 Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management expected the first Nova center construction completed in Q2FY23 and operational by November; at Q2 FY23 the project near Nagpur was to go live "by next month", by December 2022. By Q3 FY23 the pilot was still being pivoted; the first property launched only in Q2 FY25 in Uttar Pradesh, with two operational by Q3 FY25.
21. Distribution - 40 to 50 films per year, ₹4-5 crore revenue in FY23 Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management expected to distribute around 40 to 50 films per year with a "very modest" ₹4-5 crore FY23 revenue target, 80% going into EBITDA. The company distributed 12, 14 and 15 movies across Q1-Q3 FY23, roughly 41 films, but net revenue was only ₹1.4 crore, ₹1.9 crore and ₹20 lakh in those quarters.
22. FY23 CapEx around ₹20-25 crore Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided FY23 CapEx around ₹20 to ₹25 crores, curtailed due to stock of key equipment, versus a pre-pandemic ₹45 crores; at Q2 FY23 they said not to exceed ₹22-25 crore, with H1 spend of ₹10 crore. FY23 CWIP stood at ₹11.46 crore, suggesting spend below the guided range.
23. Maintenance capex to rise 10-20% vs pre-pandemic Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management expected maintenance capex to rise \~10%-20% versus pre-pandemic levels, though no major capex was required. CWIP was ₹11.46 crore in FY23, ₹7.07 crore in FY24, ₹5.48 crore in FY25 and ₹9.47 crore in FY26, against pre-pandemic capex of ₹40-50 crore a year.
24. Caravan reactivation - revenues from next quarter Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management expected the Caravan business reactivation to generate some revenues "from next quarter". Caravan generated only ₹20 lakhs in each of Q1 and Q2 FY23, then ₹1.6 crore in Q1 FY24 and ₹4.1 crore in Q3 FY24, before dropping to near zero in Q3 FY25 and being discontinued from FY26 onward.
25. Distribution to become a major business over next two to three years Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management saw the fee-based distribution business building up as a major business over the next two to three years. Net revenue was ₹1.9 crore in Q2 FY23 and ₹20 lakh in Q3 FY23, and by Q4 FY24 the number of movies distributed was "very small", with no evidence of major-business scale by FY25-FY26.
26. Zinglin to raise funds independently - no UFO capital Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management stated Zinglin will raise funds independently as a separate subsidiary and UFO does not intend to utilize UFO's capital in it. By Q2 FY23, Zinglin had no traction, was pivoted to white-labelling and placed on the backburner with minimal costs; no evidence of UFO capital deployed is on record.
27. Fundraise of ₹96.82 crore via preferential allotment Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management announced Board approval of a ₹96.82 crore preferential allotment, subject to approvals, with the EGM scheduled for November 26, 2021. Funds of ₹96.83 crores were raised on 09-12-2021, with 93,99,933 shares allotted at ₹103.01 per share to Nepean Focused Investment Fund and no deviation in utilisation reported.
28. VPF has no sunset - will not happen Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management asserted VPF has no sunset and "will not happen". D-cinema VPF sunset for Hollywood studios was contractually complete by 2019, and management later acknowledged the sunset revenue ended as planned and is a permanent loss.
29. VPF discounts withdrawn - normalized 100% levels in one or two months Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management expected VPF to return to normalized 100% levels in one or two months, provided no third wave or lockdown, with revenue potentially exceeding normalized levels once discounts were withdrawn. By Q4 FY22 all pandemic-era VPF/CDC discounts had been removed and full rates were charged, with full pre-pandemic rates restored from April 1, 2022.
30. Nova Cinemaz - no major investment, only ₹5-10 lakh for ongoing projects Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management committed to halt new investment in Nova Cinemaz, with only ₹5-10 lakh if required for ongoing projects; later guidance limited Nova to startup investment of a few crore and, at Q4 FY24, to equipment, sound, acoustics and screens with local partners funding setup. By Q2 FY26, three screens were operating with three more in progress and "no significant investment made and no material financial impact on the company".
31. Fee-based film distribution only - no advances or content investment Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management stated the company will only do fee-based film distribution with no advances or investment in content, reiterated at Q2 FY22 as no minimum guarantees or content acquisition "even in the future". Distribution stayed on a no-content-risk, fixed-fee model through FY24-FY26, with the FY23 AR confirming zero content risk since December 2020.