1. Profectus merger - completed by February 2027 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided that the merger of Profectus Capital into UGRO would be completed by February 2027, with the attempt by end of Q3 FY27. By Q1 FY27, stock exchange approvals and observation letters were received and the scheme was filed with NCLT.
2. FY27 AUM - flattish On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided that FY27 AUM would be flattish, with a slight uptick thereafter. Q1 FY27 AUM came in at ₹15,013 crore, down 2% QoQ from ₹15,334 crore, broadly flat as guided.
3. Five commitments with FY29 targets On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management made five commitments: EM-LAP and embedded finance to 85% of AUM by FY29, ₹220 crore annualized cost takeout, Prime Intermediated run-down at 15%-20% annually, no incremental equity through FY29, and steady-state ROA of 3%-3.5% by FY29. By Q1 FY27, focus products were at 46% ("AHEAD OF PLAN"), the ₹220 crore takeout was "ACHIEVED", Prime run-down was 14% QoQ, CAR was 21.0% without incremental equity, and ROA was 2.8% heading to 3.0-3.5%.
4. Non-core portfolio run-down - 15%-20% annually Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided the non-core intermediated portfolio to run down at 15%-20% annually. In Q1 FY27, the Prime Intermediated run-down was 14% QoQ against the 15%-20% p.a. target, marked "AHEAD OF PLAN".
5. Cost rationalisation - approximately ₹220 crore annualized Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management announced annualized cost rationalisation of approximately ₹220 crore, with \~50% already achieved. By Q1 FY27, the ₹220 crore annualised optimisation was fully achieved, with quarterly opex down 42% to ₹118.5 crore, marked "ACHIEVED".
6. FY27 growth - 20%-25% On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided FY27 growth of 20%-25%. Q1 FY27 AUM was ₹15,013 crore, up 24% YoY, within the guided band.
7. Consolidated AUM growth - more than ₹3,500 crore by FY26-end Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided consolidated AUM growth of more than ₹3,500 crore by FY26-end, on top of \~₹3,000 crore added via Profectus. From FY25 AUM of ₹12,003 crore, FY26 closed at ₹15,334 crore - growth of \~₹3,331 crore, close but short.
8. Post-Profectus off-book AUM - moderate to around 35% Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management expected post-Profectus off-book AUM to moderate to around 35%. Off-book AUM stood at 36% by Q3 FY26, essentially at the expected level.
9. Emerging Market LAP - around 35% of AUM by end of FY26 Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management targeted Emerging Market LAP contribution to reach around 35% by end of FY26. EM LAP share was 25% in Q2 FY26, 21% in Q3 FY26 and 24% in Q4 FY26 - the 35% mark was not reached.
10. Embedded finance - 10%-12% of total AUM in 2-3 years Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management targeted embedded finance at around 10%-12% of total AUM in the next 2-3 years. Embedded finance AUM rose from ₹1,011 crore (8.4%) in Q1 FY26 to ₹1,270 crore (10.5%) in Q2 FY26, reaching ₹3,003 crore (20%) by Q1 FY27 - the band was crossed by Q2 FY26, well ahead of horizon.
11. Profectus acquisition - accelerate AUM towards ₹20,000 crore medium-term On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected the Profectus acquisition to accelerate AUM towards a medium-term goal of ₹20,000 crore, raising the base to \~₹15,000 crore. Consolidated AUM reached ₹15,454 crore in Q3 FY26 and ₹15,013 crore in Q1 FY27 - the ₹15,000 crore base was achieved, with the ₹20,000 crore goal not yet due.
12. Ratings upgrade - by next year Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected a favourable ratings upgrade "by next year". In Q2 FY26, India Ratings upgraded the long-term rating to IND A+ with Positive Implications, and by Q4 FY26 the rating stood at A+ with positive outlook.
13. Cost-to-income - closer to 55% this year (FY25) Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, the CFO guided cost-to-income for FY25 to end closer to 55%, "1% here and there". FY25 cost-to-income came in at 53.8%, within the guided range.
14. 30% AUM growth YoY for FY25 Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management positioned the company to deliver 30% AUM growth YoY for FY25. FY25 AUM growth came in at 33%, exceeding the 30% target.
15. Supply chain finance book - wound down over next few quarters Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided the supply chain finance book of ₹355 crore to be wound down over the next few quarters. SCF AUM fell to ₹274 crore in FY25 and ₹186 crore by Q3 FY26.
16. Leverage - up to 5x in next 12-18 months Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said \~5x leverage would be realistic in the next 12-18 months. Leverage was 3.4x in FY25, 3.8x in Q3 FY26, 3.7x in Q4 FY26 and 3.6x in Q1 FY27 - it did not reach 5x.
17. Cost of borrowing reduction - 75 bps over 6-10 quarters Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management projected a total cost of borrowing reduction of 75 bps over the next 6-10 quarters. Cost of borrowing fell from 10.61% in Q4 FY25 to 10.14% in Q1 FY27 - a reduction of \~56 bps over \~6 quarters, meaningful but short.
18. Credit costs - peak and stabilise at around 2% by end of FY26 Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided credit costs to peak and stabilise at around 2% by end of FY26. Q4 FY26 credit cost was 1.9% of average AUM annualized and Q1 FY27 came in at 1.7%.
19. Micro enterprises AUM - upwards of 30% in 6 quarters Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management targeted micro enterprises AUM contribution to reach upwards of 30% of AUM in 6 quarters. EM AUM share was 22% in FY25, 25% in Q2 FY26 and 21% in Q3 FY26 - the 30% level was not reached within the window.
20. PAT growth higher than AUM growth - for next 3 years Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management stated PAT growth would likely be higher than AUM growth, a trend expected for the next 3 years. FY25 PAT grew 21% YoY against AUM growth of 33%, and Q3 FY26 PAT grew 23% against AUM growth of 40% - PAT growth lagged in both years.
21. Credit cost - 1.8%-2% for FY25 Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided credit cost for the next year between 1.8% to 2% overall. FY25 credit cost was ₹173.1 crore, 2.9% of on-book AUM, above the guided band.
22. Sustainable growth - about 30% for the next 2 years Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided growth on a sustainable basis of about 30% for the next 2 years. FY25 AUM growth was 33%, FY26 AUM growth was 40% YoY in Q3 FY26, and Q1 FY27 growth was 24% YoY.
23. MyShubhLife - ₹1,500 crore AUM and ₹100 crore PAT in 3 years On track - At the May 2024 acquisition announcement, management guided to \~₹1,500 crore incremental AUM by the end of the 3rd year and \~₹100 crore incremental PAT over the same 3 years, reiterated in the Q4 FY24 PPT and the FY24 annual report. Embedded Finance AUM stood at ₹1,798 crore by December 2025 and GROx AUM reached ₹3,003 crore by June 2026, ahead of the AUM trajectory within \~2 years; the 3-year horizon runs to \~2027 and no explicit MSL PAT contribution figure is on record.
24. Overall GNPA - \~2% on AUM basis steady-state Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided steady-state overall GNPA of \~2% on AUM basis. GNPA was 2.0% in FY24, then 2.3% in FY25, 2.2% in Q3 FY26, 2.5% in Q4 FY26 and 2.6% in Q1 FY27, drifting above the target.
25. Mudra Guarantee Scheme - 100% unsecured portfolio coverage Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management intended to cover 100% of the unsecured portfolio under the government's Mudra Guarantee Scheme via SIDBI. Coverage was 10% of total portfolio as of September 30, 2023 and reached 41% of the unsecured portfolio under CGTMSE by Q3 FY25.
26. Micro enterprise AUM - 20% of overall AUM Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management stated "The target of 20% for this channel" for micro enterprise AUM, then 8% of overall AUM; the target was raised to upwards of 30% in 6 quarters at Q2 FY25 and to 32%-35% in 6-8 quarters at Q4 FY25. Micro/EM share rose from 9% in FY24 to 22% in FY25 - the original 20% target was achieved, though the raised targets remained pending.
27. FY24 PAT - approximately ₹120-125 crore Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, an analyst cited management's TV interviews with PAT guidance of approximately ₹120-125 crore for FY24. FY24 PAT was ₹119.3 crore, effectively at the lower bound.
28. FY25 AUM - ₹20,000 crore aspirational Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, an analyst noted the roadmap 2025 target of ₹20,000+ crore AUM by FY25; management called it "broadly in line to that aspirational number" without firmly reiterating, later softening to "₹19,000 or ₹18,000 crore" and then \~₹17,000-18,000 crore as aspirational. FY25 AUM was ₹12,003 crore, well short of even the trimmed aspiration.
29. 50% off-book AUM - by 2025 Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management targeted 50% of the book off-balance-sheet by 2025/FY25, reiterated at Q2 FY23 and Q4 FY23, with the horizon described as "in next six quarters" at Q1 FY24. Off-book AUM was 45% in FY24 and 42% in FY25; by Q2 FY26 the target was reset to \~35% moderating to 25%-30%.
30. No further equity raise for 12 months from April 2023 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided no further equity raise for the full 12 months from April 2023. The next raise - ₹1,332 crore via CCD and warrants - was announced in Q4 FY24, approximately 11-12 months after April 2023, at the edge of the window.
31. FY24 off-book AUM - closer to 47% Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided FY24 off-book to reach closer to 47%, reiterated at the Q1 FY24 call as "we will end this year close to 47%". FY24 off-book AUM mix was 45%, close but short.
32. FY24 ROE - double digit Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided ROE to hit double digit in FY24. FY24 ROE was 9.9%, just below double digit.
33. FY24 ROA - 3.1% Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management gave an FY24 plan with ROA of 3.1%, reiterated as \~3% at the Q2 FY24 call. FY24 ROA was 2.3%, below the plan.
34. FY24 AUM target - approximately ₹10,000 crore Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided AUM to reach the five-digit range (\~₹10,000 crore) by end of FY24, later expressed as ₹9,000-10,000 crore with 3-4% deviation acceptable and softened at Q3 FY24 to "somewhere near to that number". FY24 AUM closed at \~₹9,047 crore, short of ₹10,000 crore but within the revised band.
35. Capital raise - by Q4 FY23 or Q1 FY24 Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said it would do a capital raise by Q4 FY23 or Q1 FY24. In April 2023, the company raised ₹340 crore via preferential issue and QIP, confirmed as ₹340.5 crore in the Q4 FY23 PPT.
36. Cost-to-income ratio - roughly around 45% by 2025 Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided a cost-to-income ratio of roughly around 45% by 2025, with revisions along the way including \~47% for FY24 and 40-45% over next 8 quarters. Cost-to-income was 62% in FY23, 54% in FY24 and 53.8% in FY25 - the 45% mark was not reached by 2025.
37. Doubling bottom line (PBT) - FY24 over FY23 Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management committed to doubling the bottom line (PBT) over the next financial year, FY24. FY23 PBT was ₹83.8 crore and FY24 PBT was ₹179 crore, up 113% YoY - more than doubled.
38. Leverage cap - 3.5-3.8x self-imposed Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management reiterated a self-imposed leverage target of 3.5-3.8x during the first 5-7 years, later preferring a cap at 4x and signalling comfort up to 5x at Q2 FY25. Leverage was 3.2x at FY23, 3.2x at FY24, 3.4x at FY25 and 3.6x at Q1 FY27, staying within the original ceiling.
39. GRO Score 3.0 - launch by end of Q3 FY23 Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management targeted GRO Score 3.0, incorporating GST data, to launch by end of Q3 FY23 (December 2022); at Q3 FY23 it was piloting with a "going live in this quarter" commitment. The Q4 FY23 PPT states GRO Score 3.0, triangulating repayment history, banking behaviour and GST data, is live in production.
40. Branch expansion - 280+ locations across five states Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided 280+ locations across five identified states, with later targets of 25-50 micro branches by FY23-end, 250 branches over three years, almost 400 in 2 years, and 400 Emerging Market branches by March 2026. Branch count reached 98 by March 2023, 235 by March 2025 and 317 by March 2026 - short of 400.
41. ROE - 6-8%, then 18% by FY25 Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided ROE improving from 1.5% to 6-8% while keeping leverage below 3.0x, and at Q1 FY23 the 18% ROE by FY25 target was called "most achievable", with later resets to 16%-18% by end of 2025 and "next about 2 years". ROE was 9.9% in FY24, 8.7% in FY25 and 9.2% in Q1 FY27 - the 18% level was not reached.
42. ROA - 2%, then 4.5% by 2025 Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided RoA moving from 0.6% in FY22 to 2%, then a target of 4.5% by 2025; the 4% ROA milestone was reset repeatedly, from FY25 exit to "next about 2 years" and finally to steady-state ROA of 3%-3.5% by FY29. ROA was 2.3% in FY24, 2.4% in FY25 and 2.8% in Q1 FY27 - the 4.5% by 2025 target was not achieved.
43. FY23 AUM target - \~₹7,000 crore Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided an FY23 AUM target of \~7,000 crore versus FY22 AUM of 2,969 crore, reiterated as "absolutely on track" at Q1 FY23 and again at Q2 FY23. FY23 AUM closed at ₹6,081 crore, \~13% short, with management acknowledging the \~₹900 crore shortfall.
44. Off-book AUM mix - about 35% by FY23-end Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided that by next year end about 35% of the business would be off-book through co-lending and co-origination partnerships, specified as 37% with \~16% co-lending and 11-12% co-origination. The 35% off-book level was achieved in January 2023, ahead of the March 2023 target, and Q4 FY23 off-book AUM stood at 40% of total.