1. ₹5,000 crore Green Bond issuance in FY 2026-27 On track - In the FY26 annual report, the bank targets ₹5,000 crore Green Bond issuance in FY 2026-27. At Q1 FY27, the bank disclosed a planned USD benchmark unsecured Reg S notes issue via its DIFC Branch, with no explicit Green Bond issuance disclosed yet.
2. Union Bank @2031 strategy: double MSME business On track - In the FY26 annual report, the Union Bank @2031 strategy targets doubling the MSME business. FY26 MSME advances stood at ₹1,62,007 Cr, up 18.75% YoY, and Q1 FY27 MSME grew 16.49% YoY, consistent with the doubling path.
3. Raise additional equity capital of Rs 8,000 crore in FY24 Delivered - At the July 2023 announcement, the bank planned to raise additional equity capital of Rs 8,000 crore in the coming fiscal, FY24. By Q4 FY24, Rs 8,000 crores of equity capital had been raised via QIP.
4. Credit growth of 13%-14% going forward On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, MD & CEO Asheesh Pandey guided to credit growth of 13%-14% going forward. At Q1 FY27 he revised this to advances continuing at "12% to 13% or plus some levels", and Q1 FY27 advances grew 12.50% YoY.
5. ECL net requirement hardly 4200 to 4300 crores Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said the net ECL requirement is "hardly 4200 to 4300" crores. The Q4 FY26 call confirmed the ECL shortfall number at INR 4,300 crores, and Q1 FY27 put the total requirement around INR 11,300 crore with INR 6,000 crore remaining.
6. \~9% to 10% growth on both asset and liability side going forward Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, the MD & CEO aspired to \~9% to 10% growth on both the asset and liability side going forward. Advances grew 9.74% YoY in Q4 FY26 and 12.50% in Q1 FY27, but deposit growth was only 2.72% in Q4 FY26 and 3.50% in Q1 FY27, well short on the liability side.
7. ROA above 1% for FY26 Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management reiterated that for FY26 also they aim for ROA above 1%. FY26 ROA came in at 1.25%, exceeding the 1% target.
8. FY26 NIM impact of 20-25 bps; minimum NIM around 260-265 bps Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected a full-year FY26 NIM impact of 20-25 basis points, with minimum NIM around 260-265 bps before bouncing back. FY26 NIM of 2.70% reflected a 21 bps decline from FY25's 2.91%, and the quarterly low of 2.64% stayed above the floor.
9. ECL norms implemented for FY26-27 with one-year implementation timeline Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management expected ECL norms to be implemented for FY26-27 with a one-year implementation timeline and no substantial balance-sheet impact. ECL is now applicable from 1st April 2027, with total requirement around INR 11,300 crore and shortfall of INR 4,300 crores confirmed at Q4 FY26.
10. Branch expansion of 200 to 250 branches in FY25 Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said "close to about 200 to 250 branches is what we are looking at to grow in the current year". 122 branches were opened by September 2024, and the network stood at 8,621 branches in March 2025, implying an addition of 155 branches - below the guided 200-branch floor.
11. FY25 credit cost between 60 to 70 bps Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 credit cost between 60 to 70 bps, later framing it as 1% or below. FY25 credit cost came in at 0.77%, above the original range but below the revised 1% ceiling.
12. FY25 ROA higher than 1% Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 ROA "higher than 1%", reiterated at Q1 FY25. FY25 ROA came in at 1.26%, exceeding the 1% target.
13. FY25 NIM guidance of 2.8% to 3% Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 NIM of 2.8% to 3%, reiterated through Q1, Q2 and Q3 FY25. FY25 NIM came in at 2.91%, within the guided range.
14. FY25 gross NPA below 4% Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 gross NPA below 4%, reiterated at Q2 FY25 for March 2025. FY25 GNPA came in at 3.60%, below the 4% target.
15. FY25 gross recovery Rs.16,000 crores Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 gross recovery of Rs.16,000 crores, reaffirmed at Q2 and Q3 FY25. FY25 gross recovery came in at INR 14,995 crores, described as "closely aligned with our full year guidance of INR 16,000 crores".
16. FY25 slippages below Rs.11,500 crores Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 slippages contained below Rs.11,500 crores. FY25 gross slippages came in at INR 12,073 crores; excluding one large account they would have been INR 8,731 crores, "well within our guidance of INR 11,500 crores".
17. FY25 advances growth close to 11% to 13%; deposit growth 9% to 11% Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 advances growth "close to about 11% to 13%" and deposit growth "about 9% to 11%", reiterated through Q3 FY25. FY25 deposits grew 7.2% and advances 8.6%, both short of the guided ranges.
18. Slippage guidance of INR 12,000 crores - FY24 Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said it will not revise the FY slippage guidance of INR 12,000 crores despite H1 slippages of INR 5,404 crores, and maintained it through Q3 and Q4 FY24. FY24 slippages came in at Rs.11,877 crores, below the ceiling.
19. Deposit growth of 8% to 10% - FY24 Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided deposit growth of 8% to 10% for the year, reiterated at Q3 and Q4 FY24. FY24 deposits grew 9.3%, within the guided range.
20. Non-interest income growth of \~30% - FY24 Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, the CFO said non-interest income grew around 30% last year and the bank is focusing this year also "to have that kind of a growth". FY24 non-interest income grew 10% per the Q4 FY24 call, or 23.21% YoY to Rs.19,813 crores per the Q4 FY25 PPT, short of \~30%.
21. ROA of 1% by 2025, aiming to achieve much earlier Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, the CFO said the bank has "always" told analysts it will achieve 1% ROA by 2025 but is "aiming to achieve it much earlier than 2025". Quarterly ROA of 1.07% was reached by Q2 FY24, FY24 ROA was 1.03%, and FY25 and FY26 ROA came in at 1.26% and 1.25%.
22. Credit cost in similar range (10-15 bps plus or minus) - FY24 Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided credit cost to remain in the similar range, framed by an analyst as 10-15 bps plus or minus, with the CFO agreeing "it will be in this range only". FY24 credit cost came in at 0.74% (74 bps), well above the guided range though improved from FY23.
23. GNPA below 6% and Net NPA below 1% - FY24 Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided GNPA below 6% and Net NPA below 1%. FY24 GNPA came in at 4.76%, below 6%, and Net NPA at 1.03%, slightly above the 1% target.
24. NIM of around 3% for FY24 Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, the CFO said "we are very much confident that we will be able to maintain a margin of around 3%. That's what the guidance we are giving", reiterated through Q3 FY24. FY24 NIM came in at 3.10%, above the 3% guidance.
25. FY24 recoveries at same level as FY23's Rs.20,000 crores Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said FY24 recoveries would be "more or less actually in the same level" as FY23's Rs.20,000 crores, later revised to around INR 16,000 crores. FY24 recovery came in at Rs.18,554 crores, close to FY23's level and above the revised guidance.
26. 10-12% credit growth for FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided to 10-12% credit growth for FY24, reiterated through the year. FY24 advances grew 11.7%, within the guided range.
27. Government stake reduction to at least 75% Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said it does not want equity capital but would like to bring down the government stake to at least 75%, which is why it would like to do the QIP. Government of India shareholding was reduced to 74.76% by March 2024 and stood at 74.8% at Q1 FY27.
28. NIM outlook of 3.10 going forward Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided a NIM outlook of 3.10 going forward. Quarterly NIMs rose from 3% in Q1 FY23 to 3.15% in Q2 FY23 and 3.21% in Q3 FY23, with FY23 NIM at 3.07%.
29. Slippages of Rs.13,000 crore - FY23 Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided slippages to the extent of Rs.13,000 crore for the whole year, FY23. FY23 slippages came in at Rs.12,518 crores, below the ceiling.
30. Recovery of around Rs.15,000 crores - FY23 Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided recovery of around Rs.15,000 crores for the whole year, FY23. FY23 recovery crossed Rs.20,000 crores, exceeding the target.
31. Rs.12,000 crore of NCLT/COC-approved accounts realized in FY23 Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management said Rs.12,000 crore of NCLT/COC-approved accounts - 60 accounts of Rs.5,600 crore pending NCLT approval and 42 accounts of Rs.6,300 crore approved - was likely to be realized in the financial year. Q1 FY23 NCLT recovery was only Rs.122 crore, and FY24 NCLT resolutions totalled almost Rs.3,200 crores across 8 accounts.
32. No equity capital raise next year (FY23) Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management said it does not plan to raise equity capital next year, only some bond raising possible ("equity I don't think we may need to raise in the present circumstances"). FY23 saw no equity raise, only Tier-1 Rs.1,983 crores and Tier-2 Rs.2,200 crores in Q3 FY23; the Rs.8,000 crores QIP came in FY24 under a new board approval.
33. FY23 credit cost guidance of 1 to 1.5 Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management gave FY23 credit cost guidance of ideally between 1 to 1.5, later revised to less than 1.7% for the year. FY23 credit cost came in at 1.64%, below the revised 1.7% ceiling.
34. FY23 loan growth guidance of 11% to 12% Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management gave FY23 loan growth guidance of "definitely a double-digit growth", 11% to 12% assumed at the time, later framed as 10-12% and 12% to 13%. FY23 gross advances grew 13.1%, above the guided range.
35. Digital initiatives rolled out within maximum 12 months Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management said "Maximum 12 months, most of the initiatives will be rolled out", with Zoho CRM equipped in three to five months. By Q4 FY22 the bank launched Union NXT, Trade NXT and Project Sambhav and became the first public sector bank live on Account Aggregator, followed by Metaverse and UVConn through Q2 FY23.
36. CASA ratio to settle around 36% to 37% - FY22 Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided the CASA ratio to settle around 36% to 37% during the year. The ratio was 37.16% in September 2021 and 36.54% at March 2022, within the range, before declining to 33.52% by March 2025 and recovering to 35.21% in March 2026.
37. Deposit and advances growth of 6% to 8% - FY22 Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided deposit and advances growth in the range of 6% to 8% by the end of the year. FY22 deposits grew 11.75% YoY and advances 9.60% YoY, both above the guided range.
38. DTA knock-out of \~Rs.2,500 crores in FY22 and \~Rs.2,500 crores in FY23 Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management said it will knock out about Rs.2,500 crores of DTA in FY22 and about Rs.2,500 crores next year, so that by March 2023 the bank is prepared to move to the new tax regime. Reversals of \~Rs.1,500 crores came in Q3 FY22 and Rs.3,632 crores in FY23, with the remaining DTA written down in FY24 and migration completed in March '24.
39. Credit cost guidance of Rs.12,000-13,000 crores - FY22 Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management said it is likely to maintain the credit cost guidance of Rs.12,000-13,000 crores for FY22, later framed as around 2% for the year. The FY22 figure was not explicitly stated in the notes, but subsequent years came in below their ceilings - FY23 at 1.64%, FY24 at 0.74%, FY25 at 0.77% and FY26 at 0.23%.
40. Full-year recovery and upgradation target of \~Rs.16,000 crores - FY22 Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management raised the full-year recovery and upgradation target to about Rs.16,000 crores, revised upward from Rs.13,000 crores at Q3 FY22. FY22 recovery came in at \~Rs.16,300 crores gross, exceeding the target.
41. NARCL transfer of Rs.13,000-14,000 crores by last quarter of FY22 Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management expected to transfer Rs.13,000-14,000 crores to NARCL by the last quarter of the financial year, later revised to about Rs.12,000 crores. Three accounts involving around INR 990 crores were settled or transferred by FY23, with no disclosure of the full target being met in FY22.
42. NCLT resolutions of \~Rs.65,000 crores exposure within two years (by FY23/24) Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management expected NCLT resolutions of \~Rs.65,000 crores exposure (500 accounts) within a maximum two-year span, with 25%-30% realization expected. FY24 NCLT resolutions totalled almost Rs.3,200 crores across 8 accounts, and at Q1 FY27 management said the NCLT pipeline has "more or less dried up".
43. Recovery of 15-20% of \~Rs.1.45 lakh crore provisions in 3 years, \~30% in 5 years Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management expected 15%-20% of the \~Rs.1.45 lakh crore provisions made over the last 5 years to be recovered in the next 3 years, and about 30% over 5 years. Cumulative FY22-FY26 recoveries of \~Rs.82,857 crores equal \~57% of Rs.1.45 lakh crore, above the 30% target.
44. Net NPA close to 3.5% by March 2022 and close to 2% in FY2022-23 Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided net NPA to be close to 3.5% by March 2022 and close to 2% in FY2022-23. Net NPA was 3.68% at March 2022 and 1.70% at March 2023, meeting both deadlines.
45. NIM maintained at 2.9-3.0% - FY22 Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided net interest margins of \~2.9% to 3%, saying "we are sticking to that". FY22 global NIM came in at 2.94%, within the guided range, with subsequent years at 3.07% in FY23, 3.10% in FY24, 2.91% in FY25 and 2.70% in FY26.