United Spirits Ltd Guidance Report - SOIC x StockScans Report
as of Sep 2026
- UK FTA end-consumer price reduction of 7%-9% on BII/BIO portfolio
Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, the CFO guided that end-consumer price reduction on the BII/BIO portfolio "would be in the range of 7% to 9%" on a blended national weighted average basis, "a little higher" in some states and unchanged despite currency depreciation. The FTA came into force around July 2026 with the first concessional shipment cleared, and no actual price reduction figure is yet disclosed; the reflection window is around October 2026.
- RCSPL sale - completion by September/October 2026
On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management announced the Board-approved sale of 100% stake in Royal Challengers Sports Private Limited, pending approvals including CCI and BCCI; at the Q1 FY27 call the CFO expected BCCI approval "in the next 60 to 90 days" and completion "by September, October". CCI has approved the transaction, while BCCI approval was pending as of Q1 FY27 with BCCI "taking a little bit of time"; the September/October 2026 window is not yet reached.
- A&P spend at 10.5%-11% of net sales - FY27 full year
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, CFO Pradeep Jain guided A&P spend at "10.5% to 11%" of net sales for the full fiscal FY27, reaffirmed in Q&A. Q1 FY27 marketing reinvestment was 11.3% of net sales, slightly above the guided range, with FY27 not yet complete.
- McDowell's renovated bundle - rollout to roughly 85% of salient markets before festive season
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said they "aim(s) to roll out the new bundle to roughly 85% of the salient markets before the festive season kicks in". As of Q1 FY27 the renovated bundle had launched in UP, Rajasthan and Haryana, with Rajasthan and Haryana launched "a couple of weeks back" and initial trial response encouraging; the festive season is not yet reached.
- Supply chain agility programme - multi-year, on track
On track - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said the supply chain agility programme "is progressing well, in line with our overall strategy", with later updates of "on track" in the Q4 FY24 and Q4 FY25 PPTs and "nearing completion" in the Q4 FY26 PPT at ENA co-location 100%, footprint optimisation 83%, cash spends 57%, non-cash costs 66% and cost optimisation 88%. Exceptional charges tied to the programme ran from ₹157 cr in FY23 through ₹91 cr in FY26 and ₹81 cr in Q1 FY27 including a unit closure; by Q4 FY26 footprint optimisation stood at 83% and cost optimisation at 88%.
- Modest capex of around ₹250 crore with strong cash accrual of around ₹1,000 crore - near term
Partial - In the 31st December 2021 announcement, CRISIL noted modest capex plans of around Rs 250 crore alongside strong cash accrual of around Rs 1,000 crore; a 15th February 2023 note restated capex plans of around Rs 100-200 crore. CWIP came in at FY23 ₹83 cr, FY24 ₹37 cr, FY25 ₹72 cr and FY26 ₹77 cr, and cash closed FY23 at ₹777 cr with H1 FY23 cash and liquid investments at ₹1,306.9 cr; no explicit capex or cash accrual actual against the plan is in our record.
- Operating margin sustain over 15% - medium term
On track - In the 31st December 2021 announcement, CRISIL expected operating margin to sustain over 15% during the medium term, driven by premiumisation and leveraging of fixed overheads, reiterated on 15th February 2023. OPM was 13.36% in FY23, then 17.68% in FY24, 18.58% in FY25, 18.34% in FY26 and 15.84% in Q1 FY27 - above 15% in FY24-FY26 and the latest quarter.
- Sustained double-digit profitable topline growth - medium-term guidance
On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, CEO Praveen Someshwar reiterated the medium-term guidance of double-digit growth, and at the Q1 FY27 call management reaffirmed the construct of 5%-6% P&A volume growth and 6%-7% price mix targeting double-digit P&A growth. FY24 NSV grew 10.5%, FY25 8.2% and FY26 7.6%, while Q1 FY27 P&A NSV grew 10.1% reported and 14.8% excluding Maharashtra, with the medium-term horizon not yet reached.