1. Transformation plan - "Re-start Growth" in FY27, "Stronger Growth" in FY28 & Beyond On track - At the Q4 FY26 PPT, management guided the transformation plan would deliver "Stabilizing the Ship" in H2 FY26, "Re-start Growth" in FY27, and "Stronger Growth" in FY28 & Beyond. H2 FY26 revenue was Rs. 884 cr, -10% YoY, with reduced de-growth consistent with the stabilisation phase, while the FY27-FY28 horizons have not yet been reached.
2. Inventory reduction - from 65 lakh units to 30 lakh units Partial - In the FY25 Annual Report, management targeted reducing inventory volumes from 65 lakh units to 30 lakh units. Inventory volumes were brought down to 38 lakh units by March 2025, and the Q4 FY26 PPT and accompanying analyst notes cite a further reduction to 28 lakh units by March 2026, achieving the 30 lakh unit target.
3. Debt reduction - Rs. 125 cr in FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management committed to reducing debt by Rs. 125 crore in FY26, later reiterated as \~Rs. 130 crore at the Q1 FY26 call. Net debt reduced from Rs. 367 cr in Q4 FY25 to Rs. 295 cr in Q4 FY26, a reduction of \~Rs. 72 cr, falling short of the Rs. 125-130 cr target.
4. Revenue growth - 1-2% better than category growth in FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management committed to growing 1-2% better than category growth, with volume and value growth matching. FY26 revenue declined 14.70%, with H1 FY26 at Rs. 965 cr (-18% YoY) and H2 FY26 at Rs. 884 cr (-10% YoY), significantly undergrowing the category (SQL; D17 p.8).
5. EBITDA margin - 15% for FY26 Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided 15% EBITDA for FY26, later revised at the Q4 FY25 call to a 12-15% range. FY26 OPM was -12.97%, with adjusted EBITDA negative across all four quarters: Q1 Rs. 16 cr, Q2 Rs. (41) cr, Q3 Rs. (10) cr, Q4 Rs. (25) cr (SQL; D17 p.9).
6. Carlton exclusive stores - 25 new stores in next six months (from Q3 FY25) Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided 25 new Carlton exclusive stores to be opened in the next six months, by Q1 FY26. As of Q4 FY25, Carlton stores were at 4 locations, and no disclosure confirms 25 new stores were opened by the explicit six-month horizon.
7. EBITDA margin - 12% exit Q4 FY25 Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management promised 12% EBITDA for the Q4 FY25 exit quarter, later acknowledging at the Q4 FY25 call that the target was not achieved. Q4 FY25 EBITDA margin was 2.1%, far below the explicit 12% target.
8. Inventory reduction - to Rs. 500-550 cr by June 2025 Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided inventory would be Rs. 700-720 crore by March 2025 and Rs. 500-550 crore by June 2025. Inventory as of March 2025 was Rs. 698 crore, and by March 2026 it had fallen to Rs. 472 crore, missing the explicit June 2025 deadline.
9. Debt reduction - Rs. 100 cr minimum by March 2025 Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management promised debt reduction of Rs. 100 crore minimum by March 2025. Debt reduced by Rs. 118 crore during FY25, exceeding the explicit Rs. 100 cr minimum target by the March 2025 deadline.
10. BCG engagement - deliver Rs. 250 cr benefit to bottom line Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management promised the 15-month BCG project would deliver Rs. 250 crore benefit to the bottom line, with Rs. 40-50 crore of initiatives in FY25. FY25 PBT before exceptional items was negative Rs. 99 crore, and no disclosure in our record quantifies any BCG benefits realised.
11. International business - big growth impetus in FY25, prep for Europe and US in FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided international business would prep for European and US markets in FY24, with a big growth impetus in FY25. FY25 international channel salience fell to 2% from 3% in FY24, and no entry into Europe or the US is recorded.
12. Revenue growth ambition - \~20% (ahead of 15% industry) Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided overall growth could be ahead of 15% with an ambition of about 20%. FY24 revenue growth was 7.8%, FY25 declined 3%, and FY26 declined 14.7%, with the 20% ambition never approached (SQL).
13. Working capital reduction - 15 days to 75 days in 18-24 months Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided working capital reduction of 15 days to 75 days in the next 18-24 months, by FY25. Debtors turnover in FY25 was 6.26 (58 days) vs 7.80 (47 days) in FY24, and inventory turnover worsened to 1.94 (188 days) from 2.0 (183 days), with the 75-day target not achieved.
14. Capex - Rs. 200 cr in FY24 for manufacturing capacity Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided capex of Rs. 200 crore in FY24 for manufacturing capacity, later revised at the Q2 FY24 call to Rs. 80-85 crore with the soft luggage expansion put on hold. FY24 CWIP was Rs. 14.38 cr, and the Rs. 200 cr plan was explicitly withdrawn for soft luggage and scaled down (SQL).
15. EBO count - reach as high as 800 during FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided exclusive business outlets to reach as high as 800 during FY24, later revised at the Q2 FY24 call to around 100 new stores for the year. FY24 saw a net addition of 7 EBOs, reaching a total of 500+ EBOs, far short of the 800 target.
16. EBITDA margin - 16%-17% for FY24 Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided EBITDA margin of 16%-17% for FY24. FY24 consolidated EBITDA margin was 9.1%, well below the explicit 16-17% target range.
17. Revenue growth - 12%-15% for FY24 Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided 12%-15% revenue growth for FY24, contingent on the demand environment. FY24 consolidated revenue was Rs. 2,245 cr, +7.8% YoY, falling short of the 12-15% guided range.
18. Town coverage - all 50,000+ population towns by mid-FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided traditional trade distribution to cover all 50,000 population towns by the middle of FY24. As of FY24, total towns with VIP presence was 1,361, with towns of 50K-1 Lakh population at 499, well short of covering all 50,000+ population towns by the explicit mid-FY24 deadline.
19. Effective tax rate - 18%-19% for FY23, 18%-20% going forward Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided an effective tax rate of 18%-19% for FY23 and 18%-20% going forward. FY23 PAT was Rs. 152 cr on PBT before exceptional of Rs. 229 cr, implying an effective tax rate of \~33.6%, and FY24 implied \~29.5%, with the guided 18-20% range not achieved (SQL; D6 p.4; D15 p.16).
20. A&P spend - \~5% of revenue for FY23 Pending - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided A&P spend at around 5% of revenue for FY23, later revised at the Q3 FY23 call to 5% to 6% going forward. Our record holds no full-year A&P ratio disclosure for FY23 to confirm or refute the 5% target.
21. Capex - \~₹50 cr in FY23 Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided capex of approximately ₹50 crore for FY23, later revised at the Q2 FY23 call to \~Rs. 100 crore. Approximately Rs. 100 crore was invested in manufacturing capex during FY23, meeting the revised explicit target.
22. Insurance claim recovery - balance of \~₹41-45 cr by Q3 FY23 Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided the remaining insurance claim of \~₹41-45 crore would be received by Q3 FY23, with the deadline repeatedly pushed through Q4 FY23, Q2 FY25, and Q1 FY26. By Q1 FY26, close to Rs. 7 crore was received with Rs. 30 crore still pending, well past the original Q3 FY23 explicit deadline.
23. Gross margin - sustainable 53%-55% in a stable environment Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided sustainable gross margin of 53%-55% in a stable environment, with the target revised across multiple quarters to a 50%-55% range. FY24 gross contribution margin was 52.6%, but FY25 fell to 45.6% and Q1 FY26 adjusted gross margin was 48%, with the sustained target not held.
24. EBITDA margin - 18%-20% in H2 FY23 Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided H2 FY23 EBITDA margin of 18%-20%, later revised at the Q2 FY23 call to an ambition of 15%-20%. FY23 full-year EBITDA was 15.8%, with underlying EBITDA at 17% excluding the Future Group charge-off, falling short of the 18-20% explicit target range.
25. Online sales stabilisation - 12% to 15% of revenue in the near future Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided online sales should stabilise at 12% to 15% of revenue in the near future, down from 16% in FY22. FY24 e-commerce salience was 22% and FY25 was 31%, with the channel never stabilising in the 12-15% range.
26. EBO count - surpass pre-pandemic number of \~450 by end of FY23 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided EBOs should surpass the pre-pandemic number of \~450 by end of FY23, later revised to more than 500 by year-end. By Q4 FY23, exclusive business outlets crossed the 500 mark, significantly ahead of the pre-COVID high of 485.
27. Hard luggage capacity expansion - new capacity in India and Bangladesh by end of Q1 FY23 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided new hard luggage capacity in India and Bangladesh by the end of Q1 FY23. By Q3 FY23, own manufacturing capacities had increased 65% since the pandemic, with \~Rs. 100 crore invested, almost equally split between India and Bangladesh.
28. FY20 profitability levels - achieved by FY23 Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management stated FY23 could be the year for achieving FY20 profitability levels. FY23 PBT before exceptional loss was Rs. 229 crore, the most profitable year in the company's history, exceeding FY20 PBT of Rs. 148.4 crore.
29. China import dependence - reduce to a very large extent in the long run Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management stated dependence on China imports would be reduced to a very large extent in the long run. By Q1 FY23, dependence on China for finished goods imports had reduced to \~11%, with the in-house manufacturing split guided at \~10-15% from China going forward.
30. Structural cost reduction - INR 80-90 cr annualised, sustained going forward Pending - At the Q4 FY21 call, management stated structural cost reduction of INR 80-90 crore annualised would be sustainable going forward, with INR 80-85 crore sustained in the coming year. The SQL snapshot shows OPM declined from 15.07% in FY23 to -12.97% in FY26, but does not provide cost-base data to confirm or contradict whether the INR 80-85 crore reduction was maintained (SQL).