Vedanta Oil and Gas Ltd Guidance Report - SOIC x StockScans Report
as of Sep 2026
- Real estate demerger into a pure-play company within 9-12 months
Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, the Group CFO stated the real estate demerger into a pure-play company (₹30,000 crores-plus value "more aspirational") has an NCLT process typically taking 9-12 months, "almost a year from now". No NCLT filing or demerger completion has been disclosed; the horizon is not yet reached.
- FY27 Vedanta Limited capex: growth ₹7,000 crores and maintenance ₹4,000 crores
Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, the Group CFO guided FY27 capex of ₹7,000 crores growth (₹5,000 crores Zinc India, ₹2,000 crores remainder) and ₹4,000 crores maintenance, \~70% at Zinc India. Demerged Vedanta invested ₹1,148 crores growth capex in Q1 FY27; no full-year read yet.
- India Ratings upgrade to AA+ within weeks, not months
Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, the Group CFO said an India Ratings upgrade to AA+ was expected "within weeks, not even months". CRISIL and ICRA upgraded to AA+ Stable; no India Ratings upgrade is disclosed as of the sweep date.
- Demerged Vedanta growth to a $5 billion EBITDA enterprise by FY30
Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management stated the demerged Vedanta is pursuing growth to a $5 billion EBITDA enterprise by FY30. Q1 FY27 EBITDA was ₹8,469 crores; no FY30 read yet.
- Jabal Sayid exploration partner finalized, 24 months for initial phase
Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management stated the Jabal Sayid exploration partner is finalized, targeting 24 months for the initial phase, with capex approval details to follow. The partner is finalized; no initial-phase completion or capex approval disclosed yet.
- FACOR Katasahi Manganese Mine operation start in H2 of this fiscal year
Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said the Katasahi Manganese Mine, with Stage 1 forest clearance received, is expected to start operation in H2 of this fiscal year. Stage 1 clearance is in hand; no operation start yet and H2 FY27 has not been reached.
- FACOR Ostapal underground mine production commence in current quarter
Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said FACOR's Ostapal underground mine production is likely to commence in the current quarter. No production commencement has been disclosed; the current quarter, Q2 FY27, is not yet reported.
- Zinc International 300 kt, then 500 kt, then 750 kt; 450 kt in a year at $1,200/ton cost
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management set the immediate goal at 300 kt, then 500 kt, finishing at 750 kt, with 450 kt in VZI "in a year's time" and cost down to $1,200/ton. Q1 FY27 mine metal production was 48,000 tons and Gamsberg COP $1,549/ton, -7% QoQ; 450 kt not yet reached.
- Gamsberg Phase 2 plant operations in August, adding 200,000 tons to 450,000 tpa
Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said the Gamsberg Phase 2 plant is likely to commence operations in August, adding 200,000 tons to reach 450,000 tpa. Gamsberg Phase 1 produced 45,000 tons in Q1 FY27, +10% QoQ; no Phase 2 commencement is disclosed as of the August 2026 sweep.
- Zinc India 250,000 tpa smelter expansion commissioned by Q2 FY29
Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management stated the 250,000 tpa smelter expansion is expected to commission by Q2 FY29. No commissioning has been disclosed; the Q2 FY29 horizon has not been reached.
- 1 crore tpa tailings reprocessing plant completed by Q4 FY28
Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management stated the 1 crore tpa tailings reprocessing plant is expected to be completed by Q4 FY28. No completion has been disclosed; the Q4 FY28 horizon has not been reached.
- Hot acid leaching plant at Dariba commissioned in current quarter
Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said the hot acid leaching plant at Dariba is targeted for commissioning in the current quarter. No commissioning has been disclosed; the current quarter, Q2 FY27, is not yet reported.
- VRL $500 million refinancing targeting \~280 bps funding-cost cut, ₹1,000+ crores yearly saving
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said VRL, through the broader $500 million refinancing program, is targeting around 280 basis points off average funding cost, saving more than ₹1,000 crores of yearly interest. VRL raised $1.7 billion at 7.4% average coupon and up to $2.25 billion at 6.4%; no quantified saving disclosed yet.
- Current-year capex of \~₹20,000 crore across the five entities
Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, the Group CFO guided current-year capex of about ₹20,000 crore across the five entities. Demerged Vedanta invested ₹1,148 crores growth capex in Q1 FY27; no consolidated five-entity capex read yet.
- Vedanta India consol EBITDA \~$9.5-$10 billion; FCF roughly $5 billion (₹45,000 crore)
Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, the Group CFO gave outlook for consolidated EBITDA of about $9.5-$10 billion with \~80% EBITDA-to-cash conversion and free cash flow of roughly $5 billion, ₹45,000 crore. Q1 FY27 EBITDA was ₹8,469 crores; no full-year consolidated read yet.
- Vedanta India consolidated leverage from 0.9x to 0.7x by coming March
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, the Group CFO reiterated that Vedanta India consolidated leverage will come down from 0.9x in March to 0.7x by coming March. Demerged Vedanta net debt/EBITDA was 0.3x in Q1 FY27; the coming-March read is pending.
- VRL debt reduction from $5 billion to $3 billion over two years
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, the Group CFO reiterated that VRL debt will come down from $5 billion to $3 billion over two years. VRL debt fell from $10 billion to $5 billion as of June 30 over the last three-odd years, with the Group deleveraging by 110 crore in Q1; $3 billion not yet achieved.
- Normalize dividend yield to almost 5% (\~$1.5 billion consolidated payout)
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, the Group CFO reaffirmed the commitment to normalize dividend yield to almost 5%, implying \~$1.5 billion consolidated payout, with practically half from Vedanta Aluminium. Vedanta Aluminium approved its first-ever interim dividend of ₹8 per share in Q1 FY27; no consolidated payout figure yet.
- VAML leftover capex ₹7,000-8,000 crores over 18-24 months; FY27 \~₹5,000 crores growth plus \~₹2,000 crores maintenance
Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, the VAML CFO guided leftover capex of around ₹7,000-8,000 crores over 18-24 months, with this year around ₹5,000 crores plus \~₹2,000 crores maintenance. BALCO has invested ₹10,800 crores on growth and is debt free; no FY27 capex spend disclosed in Q1.
- BALCO FY27 volume 260-270 kt with full production by exit of FY27; another 190 kt in FY28
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management expected 260-270 kt from BALCO this year and another 190 kt next year, realizing 435 kt from the expansion. Q1 FY27 BALCO produced 24 kt from the new pot line against a plan of 22 kt, with \~25% of capacity commissioned.
- Aluminium cost reduction of $175-$200 per ton from \~$1,700 over three to four quarters
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided cost reduction of $175 to $200 from today's \~$1,700 hot metal cost over three to four quarters, \~70% from alumina plus bauxite. Q1 FY27 hot metal cost was $1,698/ton; no reduction realized yet as initiatives progress.
- Sijimali bauxite mine start after monsoon; 0.1-0.2 crore tons in FY27, 0.6-0.7 crore tons in FY28
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said the Sijimali mine would start after monsoon, yielding 0.1-0.2 crore tons this year and 0.6-0.7 crore tons next year, with consent to operate expected that quarter. The MDO partner is appointed and only consent to operate remains; no production start yet.
- Lanjigarh ramp up to 0.5 crore tons, utilization "closer to 90%"
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management stated Lanjigarh is expected to ramp up to 0.5 crore tons, taking utilization "closer to 90%". Lanjigarh is currently operating at about 70-72% utilization; neither the tonnage nor the utilization level has been reached yet.
- Lanjigarh FY27 alumina production of 0.4-0.41 crore tons
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said "we will meet the estimate" of 0.4-0.41 crore tons of FY alumina from Lanjigarh, with a higher H2 volume trajectory expected. Q1 FY27 alumina production was 826 kt, +41% YoY but -6% QoQ, with a \~0.11 crore ton per-quarter run-rate over three quarters.
- FY27 hot metal cost guidance unchanged at $1,650-$1,700 per ton
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, the VAML CFO guided FY27 hot metal cost "unchanged at $1,650 to $1,700 per ton", with Q2 possibly marginally higher on planned power plant shutdowns. Q1 FY27 hot metal cost was $1,698/ton, down 4% YoY, inside the top of the guided range.
- Kuraloi captive coal mine start this quarter; up to 0.2 crore tons in FY27, 0.8 crore tons in FY28
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management planned to start the Kuraloi mine that quarter, mining up to 0.2 crore tons this financial year and 0.8 crore tons next. The mining lease and mine opening permission are received; no production start or tonnage disclosed in Q1 FY27.
- Shift toward 90% share of value-added products
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management noted the "continued shift toward goal of 90% share of value-added products". Q1 FY27 delivered record value-added product output of 389,000 tons, +14% YoY, with billet +18% and alloy +38% QoQ; no percentage share disclosed against the goal.
- Ductile iron pipe project in Goa completed later part of FY27
Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said the ductile iron pipe project in Goa is "expected to be completed during the later part of the year". No completion has been disclosed; the later-FY27 horizon has not been reached.
- Bokaro/ESL expansion delivered by end of FY27; Stage 2 forest clearance by end of Q2 FY27
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said the Bokaro expansion "remain[s] on track to deliver the project by end of the financial year", with Stage 2 forest clearance expected by end of Q2 FY27. Stage 1 forest clearance was received during Q1 FY27 and Stage 2 is in process; no completion yet.
- Shakti Unit 1 start by end of Q2 FY27; Unit 2 completion by Q4 FY27
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided Unit 1 start by end of Q2 FY27 - refined to "end of September or first week of October" - and Unit 2 completion by Q4 FY27. As of Q1 FY27, 26% of revival was completed and the Unit 1 insurance claim is being assessed; no start or completion yet.
- Meenakshi to achieve 100% domestic coal
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said the "plan to achieve 100% domestic coal remains on track". Q1 FY27 Meenakshi consumed \~65-70% Indian coal, with coal cost contained 12% YoY despite import prices up over 60%; 100% not yet reached.
- Add around 7.2 GW starting FY30 onwards
Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said Vedanta Power is "working on a plan to add around another 7.2 GW starting from FY30 onwards". No outcome evidence is in the record; the FY30 horizon has not been reached.
- Operating assets to reach 4.8 GW by end of FY27
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management stated Vedanta Power "aims to reach 4.8 GW by the end of this financial year" from 4.2 GW of current operating assets. Q1 FY27 records 4.2 GW as the base, after 700 MW at Meenakshi and 600 MW at Athena were commissioned last year; no incremental addition toward 4.8 GW disclosed in Q1.